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What this week’s elections could mean for the midterms
This episode explores the implications of recent off-year elections, where Democratic candidates achieved significant victories in key states. Political analysts discuss how these results may shape th...
What this week’s elections could mean for the midterms
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It might have been an off year election, but this week Democratic candidates won marquee
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races in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. So does their big night mean something bigger?
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Well, we're all going to pretend it does because that's what we did.
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That's Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia,
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speaking with my colleague, Layla Foddle.
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We analyze elections and we pretend to know what's going to happen
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in a year from now. But the truth is the headlines will change so many times between now
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and the midterm elections in November of 2026.
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That hasn't stopped Democrats and Republicans from making meaning out of the results.
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For Democrats like California Attorney General Rob Bonta,
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this was a sign that voters are unhappy with the current administration.
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The status quo is not working for voters. It was very much a referendum on Trump. He wasn't on
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the ballot, but he was essentially on the ballot. Meanwhile, most Republicans are downplaying the
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results. House Speaker Mike Johnson during a news conference on Thursday.
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This is not a surprise to us. I mean,
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blue state selectable leaders. I mean, that, yeah, so what?
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Off-year election results in isolated places are never indicative of the upcoming midterm election.
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The GOP is an excellent position to win big next year.
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But whether Tuesday night was a blip or a turning point, both parties have to figure out where they
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go from here. Trump got that started a breakfast with Republican senators on Wednesday.
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I don't think it was good for Republicans. I don't think it was good. I'm not sure it was good for
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anybody, but we had an interesting evening and we learned a lot. And we're going to talk about
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that. And we're going to talk about it too. Consider this. It's now less than a year from the midterms.
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How are the major political parties looking to ramp up the votes?
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You ever get to the pharmacy and you're expecting your medication to cost 20 bucks,
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This week on the LifeKit podcast, what to do when your prescription costs way more than you
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expected? You can listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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It's consider this from NPR. The elections this week were the first time that voters got to
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register how they're feeling a year after president from selection. And the answer was clear,
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they are not happy with the party in power. Now both Republicans and Democrats are reflecting
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on where they are and what they need to do to win in the future. NPR Senior Political Editor and
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Correspondent Dominic Homo Naro and Senior White House Correspondent Tamer Keith are reflecting
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on that too. And they're here to talk about it. Hi there. Hello.
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Great to be with you. So guys, Democrats had a huge week big wins for Mayor New York City,
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Governor and New Jersey as well as in Virginia. How are they feeling going forward?
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Democrats got their groove back at least a little bit after last year's bruising losses.
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They spent months in the political wilderness, but now they feel like they have a road map out.
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Just listen to Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin in a call earlier this week.
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Make no mistake. The Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability,
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and the Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year.
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Winning is one heck of a drug. Yeah, and this is a lesson that they learned from the 2024 election.
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A lot of people felt like it was too esoteric, focused in many respects on Trump and democracy.
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You know, Kamal Harris says the Democratic candidate tried on the economy and inflation,
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but it's a lot harder to win and make the focus on affordability when you're in charge and people
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are upset about the state of the cost of living. And it's a message that Democrats are coalescing
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around now, no matter who that candidate is. And there was a lot of ideological diversity
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among the Democratic Party candidate to one. How's the party handling that?
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Yeah, it's easy to look at the election of Democratic Socialists, Zora and Mom Donnie in New York City,
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and Moderates Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill in Virginia and New Jersey and say,
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wow, this party is split between progressives and moderates, but there is actually a through line,
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which Martin referenced. It's that affordability thing. And there's an analogy here to 2006,
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when Democrats were still licking their wounds from George W. Bush's reelection,
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and voters were in a foul mood. Democrats coalesced behind a clear and simple message.
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John Lawrence was chief of staff, Tnancy Pelosi, who became Speaker of the House after that election.
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And he says Democrats need to do the same thing now, and he even has some hope that they will.
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For all the focus on on on Mondani, if you listen to Spanberger or Sherrill's acceptance speeches,
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they're all talking the same language. I mean, they're not talking about free buses or rent control,
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that doesn't matter. They're talking about affordability.
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He says Democrats just need to stick with this affordability message going into the midterms,
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cost of living, groceries, power bills, housing costs, and not let themselves get distracted by
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social issues or climate change or the democracy stuff. But as you guys well know, President Trump
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in his campaign, he specifically promised he would fix the economy. He claims now that he has,
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but that's not what voters are saying they feel so. What does this mean for Republicans?
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Yeah, I mean, Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living. Any promise to fix it,
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but what he qualifies as a great economy isn't resonating with voters. And that was clearly the case
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in these off-year elections. For Trump, it's all about things like the stock market and gas prices,
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but those are not everything. And his tariffs have actively made things more expensive.
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Does the White House acknowledge that, though?
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One of the President's top political advisors said this week that Trump will be pivoting to talk more
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about the cost of living. But he's been talking about it a lot this week, actually, as if it isn't
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a real problem. I don't want to hear about the affordability because right now,
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we're much less, if you look at energy, we're getting close to $2 gallon gasoline.
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That was his Trump last night at a dinner for Central Asian leaders. And he really seem to dismiss
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the concern about the cost of living as a messaging problem. The affordability is much better with
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the Republicans. The only problem is the Republicans don't talk about it. And Republicans should start
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talking about it and use their heads because we have great numbers. We have great, and they can only
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get better. He says the numbers are going to get better because his tariff policies will ultimately
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improve the U.S. economy, though that's really not clear at this point. Right now, Trump is facing some
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of the same issues that President Biden did, which is that you can't credibly tell people that
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the economic fundamentals are strong and inflation is slowing down. If out in their real lives,
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they are experiencing sticker shock. Right. And when we get to the midterms Republicans will still
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be in charge. President Trump himself won't be on the ballot, though. So what dynamic does this
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create for Republican candidates? I mean, no matter what they do, Republicans are going to be tied to
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Trump. But in those swing districts, they're going to likely have to try, if the affordability
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environment doesn't change, to try to distance themselves somewhat from Trump. Here's
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Republican strategist Mike Duham, a former political director at the Republican National Committee,
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making that point. Especially in the blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation
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from Trump. Doesn't mean you have to completely distance yourself, but there has to be something where
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you show some level of independence and some level of individuality. And another part of the problem
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here for Republicans is that they can't actually be Donald Trump. Most candidates have to realize,
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you're not Donald Trump. You were not on the apprentice for 10 years. You were not a star
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on the WWE. Your name is not on buildings. So it's really an era wherein of the celebrity politician,
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but it's also an era of anger at whoever's in charge. Again, 2006 was a marker for the beginning
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of this trend. Consider that six of the last seven midterm elections have had presidents with
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approval ratings under 50% and we're moving toward that again with Trump. Yeah, this is a problem
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that Democrats had when President Obama was in office. He was a turnout machine, but only when he
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was on the ballot and the party had major losses at the state and even local level during his presidency.
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Right now, Democrats do not have an obvious leader that will likely be decided by the presidential
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primary over the next two and a half years. And it's not clear what a post-Trump Republican party
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looks like either because he has demanded absolute loyalty and fealty from members of his party.
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Right now in this era of anger and skepticism at presidents, being out of power gives the
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advantage to Democrats heading into next year's midterms. And Piarra's Dominican Montenegro and
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Tamariki, thanks to both of you. You're welcome. You got it. This episode was produced by Michael
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Levit, Casey Morel, Connor Donovan, and Karen Zamora. It was edited by Kelsey Snell and Patrick
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Jeren Watanagan. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. Thank you to our Consider This Plus
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