France's political impasse and Macron's legacy w/ Sebastian Budgen

Interactive Transcript

spk_0 Hello and welcome to another

spk_0 episode of Politics Theory. My name is Alex Doritty. Firstly, a big thanks to Juliet

spk_0 Jake's and Paris Marx for their very able presenting of the show while I was away.

spk_0 And if you missed their episodes with Cecilia Rickap on digital sovereignty and James Schneider

spk_0 on Britain's new left party, then do go check them out. My guest today is Sebastian Budgeon,

spk_0 who returns to the show to talk about the political crisis in France, where French President

spk_0 Emmanuel Macron has appointed his third Prime Minister in a year as he seeks to get an austerity

spk_0 budget through the French Parliament. We talked about the political background of the new Prime

spk_0 Minister and longtime Macron ally, Sebastian Lecognou, and whether the French Socialist Party is

spk_0 likely to prop up the new government and vote through a budget. We also talked about how the radical

spk_0 left La France into Mise and Jean-Luc Melanchon have handled the campaign of demonisation they have

spk_0 been subjected to by the French media. Finally, we talked about the legal troubles of

spk_0 Marine La Pen and the electoral prospects for the far right national rally. If you find this

spk_0 interview useful, then please do consider becoming a £5 supporter of the show on Patreon.

spk_0 The show depends entirely upon listener support, and as well as keeping the PTO show on the road,

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spk_0 Sebastian Budgin is a senior editor at Verso Books and serves on the editorial board for the journal

spk_0 Historical Materialism. Following the vote of no confidence early this month that ended

spk_0 Francois Barrouze's time in office as French Prime Minister, the French President Emmanuel Macron

spk_0 has appointed his long-standing political ally Sebastian Lecunou, making him France's third

spk_0 Prime Minister this calendar year, something that has occasioned a fair bit of amusement in the

spk_0 Italian media where there is talk of France now, taking on Italy's mantle of being a byword

spk_0 for political and economic instability. One of Macron's former economic advisors commented after

spk_0 the appointment that with Lecunou, it basically means that Macron is Prime Minister. Macron and

spk_0 Lecunou are essentially one. Is that an accurate assessment in your opinion? Could you say a bit about

spk_0 Lecunou's political background and what he's timing government, including as Minister for the Armed

spk_0 Forces and Minister for France's overseas territories, can tell us about him?

spk_0 I think it's true that France initially has changed places in terms of the governmental instability.

spk_0 We all remember the jokes about governments every three months or even less in Italy during

spk_0 a whole period of time and the stability, the bipartisan stability that the French Fifth Republic

spk_0 offered for so many decades has clearly collapsed now. Some people have compared the situation now

spk_0 to the situation of the fourth republic which was also very unstable terms of governmental

spk_0 governments rising and falling. So that's certainly true. Lecunou follows Michel Barne, who was supposed

spk_0 to be the figure of the reassuring figure of the kind of a bain bourgeois right with a strong EU

spk_0 background. He was followed by Francois Beiro, who is centre-right figure with a kind of Catholic

spk_0 background. In fact, he got into trouble because in his constituency there's a Catholic school where

spk_0 he also sent his kids to where there were big scannels about sexual and physical abuse that he

spk_0 covered up. And then we have Sebastien Lecunou, who is also from the right. He's very young. He's

spk_0 born in 1986. He comes from a middle-class background but hasn't really done anything apart from

spk_0 being professional politics. He went to Catholic school, claimed that he had a master's in a law

spk_0 in the University of Paris, where it was found out that he didn't actually have proper master's

spk_0 because he'd never finished the process. And he started very quickly in his career as at the age of 16,

spk_0 as a member of UNB, the Union Bulamogmogp Popular, which was the new name for the right party,

spk_0 joining the youth wing and then becoming a parliamentary assistant and rising up the ranks,

spk_0 until he finally joined the national bureau of the Republicans, which was the new name,

spk_0 after the UNB in 2015. He was quite close to Boino-Lemere, who was then the Chief Minister of

spk_0 the Economy. He's basically completely unknown in the French or almost completely unknown in

spk_0 the French context. It's not someone who has really marked French politics in any serious way.

spk_0 Nobody's really heard of him. He has had various ministerial responsibilities, most importantly

spk_0 Minister de l'Isltre-Mère, so Minister for the part of France outside of the metropolitan

spk_0 France, so you know the New Caledonia, the Caribbean and so on. He was also a minister of the armies.

spk_0 So yeah, he's very much somebody who's seen as extremely close to Macron, kind of yes man,

spk_0 who is much in the Macronist mold. The only slight controversies that they've been about

spk_0 here, they've been about him, are that he came across as somewhat homophobic in some statements

spk_0 that he made in the past, so he's clearly sort of in that outer edges of the Catholic right that

spk_0 finds gay marriage and homosexuality in general a problem. And most importantly, it was revealed that

spk_0 he had had a couple of private confidential dinners with Marine Nupin as a kind of footsie exercise

spk_0 between the right and the far right. And that was obviously supposed to be completely confidential

spk_0 and that got leaked to the press. You know, he claims to be from the gallist social right, as it were,

spk_0 but from what is possible to tell, he's basically a neoliberal very much in the Macron

spk_0 mold with this slight Catholic team, if you like.

spk_0 There have been differing interpretations of what his appointment tells us about Macron's intentions

spk_0 regarding trying to pass a budget. Some have argued that the appointment of this figure of the

spk_0 right, as you describe a one-time advisor to psychosy, close confidante of Macron, indicates that

spk_0 Lacorno will be tasked as Beirut was with trying to pass another austerity budget. Perhaps

spk_0 unsuccessfully it seems hard to see how simply doing the same thing over and over again achieves

spk_0 anything. Others argue that Lacorno will be given more room to maneuver and that he will offer

spk_0 concessions to the socialist party in the hope of passing a budget with their support, which we'd

spk_0 also have the benefits of splitting the left and splitting the socialist party from the france

spk_0 into means. Which interpretation looks more accurate in this moment, do you think?

spk_0 Both. It's clear that the Bill government tried to stir up an enormous feeling of crisis and

spk_0 urgency around debt, France's debt burden and used that as the justification for a very, very

spk_0 swinging set of austerity measures. And this is why they've been talking about France having to go

spk_0 to the IMF and the sort of rhetoric. Yeah, nonsense. So they wanted to cut something like 44

spk_0 billion from the budget and that involved some quite symbolic things like canceling to public holidays

spk_0 and so on and so forth. And that was one of the reasons that the Beirut government fell.

spk_0 Clearly, the line is still the same under Lacorno, but they've had to reduce their ambitions

spk_0 about the level of cuts that they want to push through. What exactly the figure they will come

spk_0 up with is unclear because as you say, they are in quote-unquote negotiations or discussions

spk_0 with the socialist party and the trade unions on the other side. Whatever figure they come up with,

spk_0 it will still be a austerity budget. It just won't be as outrageously swinging as

spk_0 that posed by the previous government. I mean, look on you, has the advantage of being as a

spk_0 safe, fairly unknown, not somebody known for his enormous ego as Beirut was, therefore,

spk_0 you know, perhaps considered both by the far right because of their sort of previous associations

spk_0 with him and potentially by the socialist party as an interlocutor with whom they would have

spk_0 perhaps more luck in, you know, ringing a few concessions out. They they see him perhaps to

spk_0 somebody who is, you know, at least easier to talk to, but I don't think that that means any

spk_0 serious inflection in terms of the overall economic programme. I mean, you've already touched on

spk_0 that there a little bit about overheated rhetoric about France's economic situation, but nonetheless,

spk_0 in this moment, France is a bit of a European outlier. The budget deficit is nearly double that

spk_0 you use 3% ceiling, although we could perhaps talk about how much wriggle-room there is with the

spk_0 EU's fiscal rules. And the debt pile currently stands at about 114% of GDP. We had this moment

spk_0 earlier this month where the Fitch Credit Rating Agency downgraded France from AA- to A-plus,

spk_0 the country's lowest level on record. Clearly, this can be seen through the lens of really

spk_0 primarily a political dispute about the direction that France wants to go, but do you think the

spk_0 economic crisis is to some extent real? Well, I only know, like all these things, it depends how you

spk_0 look at it. Yes, there is a big debt burden, and yes, it's worth pointing out that, you know, this

spk_0 is being one that's built up under the stewardship of Macau, who was supposed to be, you know,

spk_0 they called him the Motestar to Finance, and was supposed to have, you know, through his startup

spk_0 nation, style, pro-business agenda was supposed to have taken France onto a new growth path,

spk_0 and so on and so forth. And clearly, the degree of mismanagement here is quite startling in the

spk_0 light of those earlier claims. One also has to take into account, Aslamis has been doing consistently

spk_0 over this last period, that you can only judge the size of the debt comparatively to whether

spk_0 the direction in which the state revenue is heading, and it's clear that the enormous concessions

spk_0 that the Macau government has made both two businesses and to the rich in France over the whole

spk_0 period since he was first appointed president in 2017 have been to compress income for the state

spk_0 revenue for the state. So obviously in that context where you have increased spending partly to do

spk_0 with the COVID crisis, and then of course the plans to rearm France and invest massively in the

spk_0 defense industries. When you have new spending and reduced income, then you get a growing debt

spk_0 burden, but you know, that is a political decision to have reduced those taxes and that fiscal weight

spk_0 on the capitalist and richer classes. I think we might come back to the budget, but for a moment

spk_0 let's just talk about lock on to the block everything movement, which emerged in response to the

spk_0 proposed austerity budget of the Bay Area Government, which led to his fall. The movement resulted

spk_0 in these major protests and strikes on the 10th and then the 18th of September, with the latter

spk_0 bringing over 500,000 people into the streets according to the interior ministry over a million

spk_0 according to the CGT union. What is the composition of block everything and how does it relate to

spk_0 the broader left in France in this moment? Well the block everything movement started basically online

spk_0 probably in some kind of sovereigntyist slash far-right websites, but quickly became viral and was

spk_0 rapidly taken over by people with other kinds of politics, mainly from the left and particularly

spk_0 the radical left. So it was spontaneous in the sense that it was initially a kind of series of

spk_0 online initiatives, but quickly became a sort of banner behind which the most contestatory parts

spk_0 of the French left rallied behind and took it in a different direction from that which it might

spk_0 have gone. There was talk that about block on to being a kind of revival of the Gilles de Genre

spk_0 movement, which as you remember had this kind of plebian cross-class character and also was very

spk_0 deeply rooted outside of the big cities and fronts in the Perry urban and the rural areas of France.

spk_0 And was rather mistrusted by parts of the left right? Initially, yeah for sure because it had a

spk_0 class character that was unusual, involved, you know, self-employed, small business people,

spk_0 as well as people from a more straightforwardly working class background, but coming from areas

spk_0 where the left and trade unions are historically extremely weak and so on and so forth. And so there

spk_0 was a fear at that time that it would become a movement that would have strong anti-immigration and

spk_0 pro-far-right kind of positions. It didn't turn out that way at all. Immigration highly came up

spk_0 at all in the Gilles de Genre movement. It was very much plebian movement of protest against

spk_0 Macron and his policies. So there was talk that block on to would be a revival of that movement.

spk_0 I think that was true probably in some areas of particularly provincial France, but block on to

spk_0 turn out to be much more straightforwardly metropolitan movement in the big cities. Very young,

spk_0 very much the core constituencies of the people who vote for Minne-Alshan, Fosse-Alsoumise,

spk_0 amongst the white population, if you like, didn't. It's not a movement that had a strong

spk_0 anchorage in the volume, but it was clearly a movement of serious mobilization amongst

spk_0 particularly younger people and a kind of post-graduate new middle class that has been radicalised

spk_0 over the last few years in the direction of Macron's social needs. People who are obviously

spk_0 in precarious jobs with downward prospects, the kind of classic thing we see with their new left

spk_0 movements across the world, whether it's in the UK, in the US and so on. So when I say new

spk_0 middle class, I don't mean people who have sort of stable, necessarily stable, comfortable,

spk_0 reasonably paid jobs. In spite of the origins of the block everything movement,

spk_0 whether they're emerging out of these right-wing message boards and so on,

spk_0 is it right to say that the National Rally have been pretty entirely critical and have not

spk_0 sought to play many ownership over the movement? Yeah, absolutely. At the beginning, I think they

spk_0 were vacillating little and wondering whether it was worthwhile than trying to invest anything in it

spk_0 when they saw that it became much more closely identified with the left. They withdrew from it

spk_0 quite decisively and didn't call for participation in the only form. This is obviously linked to a

spk_0 sort of broader strategy that they've been engaged in since European elections, which is to prove

spk_0 their respectability towards the employing classes that Bardela particularly is on a major

spk_0 charm offensive towards the bosses and the captivists and the media representatives of those

spk_0 circles to show that left hand stuff for me is the irresponsible violent force and the

spk_0 National Rally is the force of stability and security and in fact of new liberal policies in

spk_0 many ways, although they have to also reckon with having also a working class base which

spk_0 wouldn't be happy with them dropping some of their key demands, such as the demands over the

spk_0 pension reforms and so on and so forth. That charm offensive is the business that you describe

spk_0 on the part of the National Rally. Up to this point, you think it's not really hurting them

spk_0 in the polls because you can sort of imagine that the RN might be better served by pivoting closer

spk_0 to business after an election, because that insurgent character is quite important to maintaining

spk_0 their voter coalition. At the moment, they're walking on two legs. They have their base which they

spk_0 still have things to offer of a symbolic nature such as opposition to some of the reforms

spk_0 of the welfare state and the pension reforms, although one should be careful there are other

spk_0 reforms that they're in favor of. They're also not prepared to go for any serious forms of

spk_0 fiscal justice. Taxes are something that they don't want to... There's a lot of debate at the

spk_0 moment. For example, about taxing the hyperrich and the zookman tax and so on and so forth. That is not

spk_0 an arena in which they want to go. They still have that social base around those symbolic appeals

spk_0 to defend aspects of the French welfare state and of course on an anti-immigrant basis very

spk_0 importantly, which appeals to a whole section of their base and at the same time suck up to the

spk_0 employees' federation and so on and so forth. And those things are not necessarily in contradiction

spk_0 yet because there's no election coming up. A presidential election would certainly bring those

spk_0 contradictions to the fore in a way that it's easier for them to hide at the moment. The upcoming

spk_0 elections are the municipal elections next year which by their nature are very localized and so on

spk_0 and so forth and it's possible to bury those contradictions under local campaigns for law and order

spk_0 and anti-immigration and that kind of stuff. A national election whether it would be a new dissolution

spk_0 of the National Assembly needing to legislate the elections or indeed the presidential election

spk_0 will make it more difficult let's say to openly ride to horses at the same time. Of course that

spk_0 doesn't mean that they won't be able to do it because a lot depends on the fact that a whole part

spk_0 of their social base is really disconnected from politics and doesn't follow. Day to day the

spk_0 you know the dealings between Darrell Arran the leader of the Employers Federation and so forth

spk_0 they're interested in the big headlines that the RN are putting forward rather than the

spk_0 machinations that are going on in the corridors. On La France Insoumise and Jean-Luc Melachon

spk_0 who may run for president again in 2027 how has the party navigated the situation since

spk_0 its electoral breakthrough in the snap election called by Macron in 2024 and how has it

spk_0 fed with the campaign of demonization against it from the French media much of it centered on

spk_0 allegations of anti-Semitism in this moment where rather remarkably given the history of course

spk_0 Marie Le Pen and the National Rally are positioning themselves as the great defenders of France's

spk_0 jury systems. Well I have to say rather well I think they've handled the situation rather well.

spk_0 The immediate aftermath of the elections there was a whole debate of course about since the

spk_0 new popular front came out. In front there was the debate about who should be the prime ministerial

spk_0 candidate should Macron accept the results of the election which obviously he didn't in the end.

spk_0 That led to some rather painful days of negotiation with their other partners the Greens

spk_0 Communist Party and the Socialist Party but ultimately they said they took a position which I

spk_0 thought was quite clever which was to say okay well you know we're not going to be on the side

spk_0 of presenting problems if if a left-fans or some of these prime minister is a sticking point

spk_0 or indeed ministers are sticking points that's fine. We're not sort of insistent on

spk_0 participating in the government but what we are insistent on is that this government

spk_0 defends the programme of the new popular front and of course the programme of the new

spk_0 popular front was largely apart from some's concession they had to make on international politics

spk_0 was largely a programme of La Fans sauce who means so they were saying you know they were

spk_0 disassociating the question of of the people involved and the programme in quite an effective way

spk_0 putting both the Macronist and their centre-left partners on the spot. Since then tensions have

spk_0 continued to accumulate within the new popular front leading to its essential dissonication

spk_0 largely because the Socialist Party is itself deeply divided. There is a right wing in the

spk_0 Socialist Party that is represented by someone like Fasseux au-Land, the former Prime Minister

spk_0 which is deeply hostile to any kind of alliance with La Fans sauce for me and certainly in the

spk_0 alliance in which La Fans sauce for me is a dominant partner and would prefer to break from it and

spk_0 have an independent centre-left or Socialist Party candidate with their presidential elections

spk_0 and that was buoyed up that attitude by the results of the European election where

spk_0 Rafael Gluxman the candidate which representing the Socialist Party got a decent result wasn't

spk_0 fantastic result but it came out ahead of La Fans sauce for me so that buoyed up the right within

spk_0 the Socialist Party and has basically led to it withdrawing from the new popular front. La Fans

spk_0 sauce for me is in the face of that has maintained a very firm position of saying no deals with

spk_0 Macron's governments, no backing down on the programme that we were elected on, this is the

spk_0 programme that everybody was elected on including Socialist Party deputies, anybody who throws out a

spk_0 life vest to the Macron governments and tries to do so for some kind of rotten deal is to be condemned

spk_0 and I think that has put the Socialist Party in a very difficult position because on the one hand

spk_0 they want to prove that they're capable of governing again and being a responsible party and

spk_0 and potentially being a party of coalition with the Macron East and on the other hand it's quite

spk_0 obvious that there is a form of of what you can only describe as treachery here in relation to

spk_0 the programme on which they were elected so that's always quite a good move I thought putting the

spk_0 Socialist Party on the spot there have been a lot of attacks as you say over the question

spk_0 on anti-Semitism but to be honest those have tended to die down partly because of the dramatic

spk_0 nature of what is happening in Gaza which has led to a kind of recalibration amongst the

spk_0 centre left and even you know Macron himself taking a hard line on Israel and you know the

spk_0 Socialist Party quite amusingly called for the mayor's of all France's Socialist control towns

spk_0 you know hoist the Palestinian flag the other day when when Macron recognised

spk_0 personally recognised the state of Palestine you know that was a clear opportunistic move to try

spk_0 to kind of reposition themselves on a question that Lafayette Sautomie has been very strong on

spk_0 there has been another kind of attack which is there was a book that came out published by two

spk_0 journalists one from Le Monde and one called by Lidazion called Lemurte the Horde or the pack

spk_0 which is a very aggressive book, Kisentel book with interviews of lots of ex Lafayette Sautomie's

spk_0 members trying to prove that the organisation is a sect that is controlled in a highly authoritarian

spk_0 manner that it's internal mores and so on are extremely brutal and so on and so forth and that's

spk_0 the book that got enormous media coverage has solved very well and led to you know sorts of people

spk_0 denouncing Lafayette Sautomie's as a fascist organisation for example in some cases

spk_0 or being a Stalinist organisation so that led to a lot of controversy for several weeks in fact

spk_0 to put Lafayette Sautomie's on the defensive they again they didn't back down on this as they

spk_0 didn't back down on the question of anti-Semitism and I think they've more or less written out

spk_0 that wave it's probably left scars one will have to see what happens in terms of the polls

spk_0 in relation to the centre left but broadly speaking I think their attitude has been quite

spk_0 quite effective quite crafty and quite resolute does that sort of very staunch and sort of

spk_0 unapologetic approach to these attacks does that reflect something about the leadership of

spk_0 Lafayette Sautomie's and Melodshan or is that also to do with the sort of a learning process

spk_0 perhaps from witnessing what happened to Corbinism in the UK? Yeah very much so in fact

spk_0 Minotron wrote a blog post he has a very active blog where he reacts to current events nationally

spk_0 and internationally and he wrote a blog post which I thought was quite good after the 2019

spk_0 election way he was very clear about what he thought the weaknesses of Corbin were

spk_0 particularly the kind of defensiveness over the anti-Semitism and accusations so he's

spk_0 clearly drawn lessons from that in quite an explicit way but yeah I think it also fits with

spk_0 a more general attitude which is that when you're faced with an extremely hostile media environment

spk_0 and I would argue that the French media environment is even more hostile than the British or

spk_0 was the Corbin it's a very tightly knit elite of Parisian journalists who share essentially it's

spk_0 extremely incestuous they share all the same political references with slight variations

spk_0 and Lafayette Sautomie is really seen by almost all of them as personal offense that's very

spk_0 existence and that also applies to the supposed left publications like Libby Assault particularly

spk_0 a media part to some extent as well so in that kind of context where you're surrounded by

spk_0 enemies the worst thing to do is to show some any weakness and to retreat because that is not

spk_0 the prelude to some kind of reconciliation that is simply the prelude to an even more aggressive

spk_0 and that's why they are constantly counter-attacking the media in quite a frontal manner

spk_0 that I don't think you would see so much in the British context you know Minashoff for example

spk_0 is extremely effective on TV when he's faced with a group of aggressive journalists he's

spk_0 able to turn the tables on them in in a quite effective way by also questioning their own

spk_0 journalistic standards their own style of questioning that answers itself that you know is not

spk_0 actually a real question open question it's a it's a leading question or a question that is

spk_0 completely that is a trap and so on and so forth he's very good at putting a finger on that

spk_0 explicitly in a way that puts journalists on a defensive and that's something I think is perhaps

spk_0 was missing under the under the Corbin years just going back to the socialist party for a moment

spk_0 if the socialist party were to support the cornew and enable the passing of a budget presumably

spk_0 with some minor concessions I mean as well as that being a betrayal of the platform that the popular

spk_0 front stood on it would also seem to be potentially suicidal because they would be tying their

spk_0 political brand to this extraordinarily unpopular president who was only 18 months left in

spk_0 in the Alize wouldn't they be better off continuing to just vote down these proposed

spk_0 budgets and seeing how they fare into 2027 and I mean also as an aside I mean it just seems

spk_0 remarkable and hilarious to be listening to the council of Francois Hollande given his political

spk_0 judgment yeah no absolutely there is there is a certain irrationality in all of this which

spk_0 has to be factored in especially when you consider the what they're trying to do on the other

spk_0 hand to marginalize the fossil swamies is to part of the party is trying to put together a process

spk_0 of a primary process to choose the presidential candidate for 2027 in which they want

spk_0 everybody from a fellow Brooksman who's very much on the right of the center left

spk_0 true to Francois Rufat who was formerly a member of the fossil swamies and so including

spk_0 greens the communist party and so forth so they're trying to do this on the one hand

spk_0 built together this primary process to have an alternative left candidate too minorsional

spk_0 while at the same time floating with the idea of supporting the mechwannist which are obviously

spk_0 getting compatible because Rufat the greens communist party are not going to go along with that

spk_0 and that will completely lead to an implosion of that process of creating a primary now there

spk_0 were there are people on the right wing of the socialist party you'd be very happy with that

spk_0 because they would want to see just the socialist party candidate without any allies or at least

spk_0 a Brooksman candidate he has his own micro party but without any you know baggage as it were

spk_0 but that's based on a really very heroic assumption that that would be any more successful than

spk_0 their last attempt where they got you know the 2% so yeah there is a degree of irrationality to all

spk_0 this I suppose the only rationality is that the socialist party has been void up by on the one hand

spk_0 getting more MPs elected under the new popular front program and they're somewhat better results

spk_0 in the european elections so they I suppose think that the next step to prove that they're back in

spk_0 the game as it were they're not completely out of the game they're they've returned to their roots

spk_0 as the kind of natural party of government of the left is to is to engage in some kind of alliance

spk_0 or coalition or support from that outside of the macaroni government but in the highly polarized

spk_0 context of French politics today that's appealing to a kind of phantomatic middle class voter

spk_0 center left middle class voter that either doesn't exist or exists in such such a small scale that

spk_0 it's not going to be meaningful for for a presidential election so yeah I agree there's a lot of

spk_0 strange calculations that don't seem to you know make any sense on the national rally for a moment so

spk_0 in March of this year Marie Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds for which she received

spk_0 a four year prison sentence two years of which were suspended in addition to a 100 000 euro fine

spk_0 the other two years of that sentence which would be under house arrest I believe

spk_0 wouldn't be implemented until all appeals are exhausted but we've now heard that the French court

spk_0 of appeal says it will make its ruling in summer of next year what's been the reaction to that

spk_0 given that that might pave the way for her to run in the 2027 French presidential election after all

spk_0 well that's not so straightforward I mean that the the appeal has been fast-tracked and brought

spk_0 forward to February of next year no two problems with that one is that it's just before the municipal

spk_0 elections if the sentence is confirmed then that's obviously a big disadvantage for them in image

spk_0 terms just before the municipal elections in March and April and secondly if it's confirmed then

spk_0 there's still the problem of the the final appeal this is only a sort of first stage of appeal there

spk_0 the final appeal the call of a quessession which wouldn't necessarily be in time for her to present

spk_0 herself at the presidential elections so it doesn't guarantee your tour her ability to stand as a

spk_0 candidate you know it might be before spring 2027 but it might be very close to spring 2027 so how

spk_0 do you launch a presidential campaign around her when it's still unclear whether she'll actually be

spk_0 eligible to run there's been some talk about Valdella being the presidential candidate and

spk_0 him appointing her prime minister just suppose would be the way around it sort of put in style yeah

spk_0 exactly but there are tensions between Valdella and Le Pen both of a personal and a political

spk_0 nature so that isn't a choice that she would be happy to make and he's very young and much less

spk_0 formidable as a campaigner you mean yeah yeah but he's also he's also quite smooth he doesn't have the

spk_0 apparently doesn't have the the baggage of the Le Pen name and the controversies

spk_0 and racism and racism of the past although actually he's very close to some very radical far right

spk_0 people the identitarians for example but you know the image that he gives off is is somebody who's

spk_0 kind of they call him you know the perfect son in law and so on he's he's very popular on TikTok

spk_0 and amongst whole section of young people for his his videos so he has other types of

spk_0 attributes if you like that could appeal to an electorate and he seems to be well appreciated by

spk_0 the employers and the capitalist class who see him as less you know some of them are so hysterical

spk_0 that they think that uh Le Pen is uh what they call they call her Marxist or you know she's

spk_0 the leftist because she's elected in a working class area because of these as say commitments to

spk_0 defend parts of the French welfare state so that she's in a hawk is it where to a popular electorate

spk_0 and Bardela doesn't seem to have that that kind of profile so he's more pleasing to the employers

spk_0 and potentially also to the right because we could be talking about in the eventuality of a

spk_0 victory for the the far right it might not be an outright victory so it might be a coalition

spk_0 government with the with a traditional right uh Malinda Pen historically with her father gets

spk_0 on very badly with the traditional right she dismisses it as the bourgeois right you know she

spk_0 doesn't want to be you know it's a born-up position to the traditional right so you know relations have

spk_0 historically been been very bad I've changed a little bit at the last elections where Eriks

spk_0 Yutti who was the leader of the Republic out jumped ship and joined her with a small gang

spk_0 but still you know relations historically have been very poor so he's potentially a better

spk_0 candidate to do a coalition with than she would be okay so my last question is on Immanuel Macron

spk_0 and how to evaluate his political legacy but before we get to that could you say a bit about the

spk_0 fluidity of the political situation in France currently and how difficult it is to offer very

spk_0 firm predictions including about whether political dynamism lies more on the left or the right

spk_0 as with all these conversations that we've had in the past I think it's important to emphasize

spk_0 how unstable and unpredictable things are in French politics in general and particularly at the

spk_0 moment there are a lot of moving parts that one can't account for one of them of course is whether

spk_0 this wave of struggles from broken two to the big strikes and demonstrations on the 18th will

spk_0 continue and will intensify that is entirely possible there have been new strikes and demonstrations

spk_0 for the end of the month so there is a dynamic there could develop that would be quite important

spk_0 the second element that one can't account for is this juridical element about the pen and the

spk_0 courts so forth the third moving part is what is going to happen in the centre left so the centre

spk_0 left is to say would like to have their own candidate for the presidential elections against

spk_0 France and France and Greece but a lot of pretenders to be that white knight they're fighting amongst each other

spk_0 it's not clear to me that they have somebody who is a particularly strong candidate

spk_0 I have Phil Gruxman who is considered by some to be their best candidate is you know he's a very

spk_0 weak candidate in terms of being able to appeal beyond the traditional centre left electorate it's

spk_0 not a he does no charisma for a start but secondly his political programme is so limited

spk_0 that is difficult to see how he would appeal to anyone outside of the highly educated

spk_0 professional classes you know will that lead to a complete fiasco in the centre left

spk_0 will the Greens stick with this process because the Greens existence is also in danger that's one of

spk_0 the reasons the new popular front happened was because the Greens you know the originally it was

spk_0 supposed to be an alliance of all the left parties without that's not so smooth the Greens or the

spk_0 ones you said oh that's not going to be possible guys because that means we'll get wiped out

spk_0 so will they stick it out along the lines of what the Socialist Party is proposing or will they

spk_0 also throw a spanner in the works that's something that's impossible to predict right now and yeah

spk_0 the implosion of the centre is quite impressive the the Maconese parties basically falling to pieces

spk_0 in front of one's eyes because they all realise that 2027 is going to be a it's going to be a big mess

spk_0 for them they could get wiped out at the elections they have no clear alternative candidate to be

spk_0 successive to Macon in any serious manner so that means they are locked into an embrace with the

spk_0 right the right itself is locked in an embrace with the far right because the the right is just

spk_0 running to try and outpace the far right in terms of more and more outrageous statements about

spk_0 a law and order and immigration and so on and so forth so that completely distorts any

spk_0 specificity that the the the Maconese had you know this original combination of economic liberalism

spk_0 and social liberalism so you know what will happen there will will will the will this centre

spk_0 completely disintegrate leaving avoid or will they be able to patch things up so yeah all of

spk_0 these factors are in motion right now none of the direction that they're moving in is predictable

spk_0 or is clear yet and it's the interaction between them that will lead to the new political situation

spk_0 so yeah it's it's it's very difficult to be definitive about anything right now just finally

spk_0 on Immanuel Macron's legacy so when he was first elected in the spring of 2017 his victory was

spk_0 depicted as this repudiation of political extremes and that he was saving France from the prospects

spk_0 of the national front and that he was reinvigorating the neoliberal centre aside from the penchant

spk_0 reform his economic agenda has been very much frustrated and then there's his tendency to

spk_0 utilize extreme and sometimes deadly force against public protest notably during Black Lives Matter

spk_0 and the Gideon protests and that's something that may very much aid national rally if they come

spk_0 into government and launch a wave of repression what do you think Maconese legacy is likely to be

spk_0 and and how do you think his politics is best characterized at this point because there is this

spk_0 debate sometimes about whether he's about to throw back the last neoliberal or whether he's

spk_0 should really more be seen as a figure of the authoritarian right yeah I mean I think he's a bit

spk_0 of both to be honest is he's a jane is faced bigger and you know it's so proof that neoliberalism

spk_0 even with a human face isn't incompatible with with highly authoritarian discourse and policies

spk_0 in practice neoliberal the human face on the streets authoritarian liberal between the sheets

spk_0 as it were so you know as you say the economic legacy is pretty unimpressive France's economy is

spk_0 in trouble the notion that it was going to be rejuvenated by internet entrepreneurs and you

spk_0 know startups and so on is clearly nonsense he has not managed to make any of the swinging

spk_0 cuts in the welfare state that you know neoliberal steel dream about always you know being very

spk_0 effective at you know death by a thousand cuts as it were and on the societal front or social

spk_0 front no major reforms were the of writing home about and it's usually on the geopolitical front

spk_0 that French presidents at the end of their term when it's been a disappointing one try to make

spk_0 up for things and again I think that that is being rather rather unimpressive I mean whether you

spk_0 look at the negotiations with Trump over tariffs with the complete capitulation of the EU on that

spk_0 level whether you look at the question of NATO and the rearmament program being pushed on the

spk_0 Europeans by the Americans in order that they buy more American weapons whether you look at Ukraine

spk_0 where clearly Europe is you know doesn't have any real counterweight to whatever Trump's mood is

spk_0 of the day regarding Ukraine or indeed broader questions like ecology where you know

spk_0 a mackerel posed as a as a defender of green capitalism that is in total disarray it's China

spk_0 that's leading this leading the wave towards decarbonization and renewable energy not not Europe

spk_0 and indeed especially perhaps over Palestine where mackerel has veered from

spk_0 completely uncritical support for Israel if you remember after the 7th of October he

spk_0 suggested by of all people Belna Raleigh O'Elivi he proposed a international coalition against

spk_0 Hamas quating it with Islamic State and so on an idea that died before it was even born so

spk_0 completely uncritical support of Israel to now you know this symbolic grandstanding about

spk_0 recognition of the Palestinian state so on there's no consistency there whatsoever no clear line

spk_0 neither a return to the kind of supposedly pro-Arab policy of the callist period nor

spk_0 nor even to be honest a consistent line of support for Netanyahu because that would involve

spk_0 its own contradictions that would be difficult for him to espouse so you know it seems very erratic

spk_0 very unprincipled very opportunistic on just about every every level we one should remember that

spk_0 macko is one of the most hated world leaders of our moment you know he's even more unpopular than

spk_0 Kirsta Amar I think can imagine such a thing yeah it's sort of interesting that because I think it

spk_0 doesn't necessarily come across that I think people necessarily get the depth of hostility that is

spk_0 in in France towards macko but yeah oh it's very deep yeah I mean there is there there is a hatred

spk_0 the hate of violent hatred of macko not in every sector of French society but in very large

spk_0 sector of French society macko is absolutely detested with a virance that is perhaps difficult

spk_0 to to imagine because of everything he symbolizes his smug nurse his background his his arrogance

spk_0 and so forth he he is really become a kind of incarnation of everything including from the far

spk_0 right through to the far left that people detest about the insularity the incestuousness the

spk_0 outer touchness the the perisianness the bourgeois nature of French politics

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France's political impasse and Macron's legacy w/ Sebastian Budgen

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