Second Breakfast: Putin's Drones, SecWar Patton, Wargaming, Finding Subs

Interactive Transcript

spk_0 Second breakfast back at it. We got drones over Europe. We got Hegseth patenting sort of.

spk_0 We've got a government shutdown joining us besides our regular Tony and Eric. Is Brian Clark a long time submariner now hanging out at the Hudson Institute?

spk_0 Welcome to second breakfast everyone.

spk_0 I think you're lowballing Brian. He runs some wonderful war games at Hudson among other things and is it submarine or submariner?

spk_0 It's sub-reader because the sub-mariner just sounds like a bad murderer. So you got to say sub-reader.

spk_0 I want to start. I want to start with Poon playing footsies. I mean this is more than playing footsies with NATO.

spk_0 I mean we've got like 14 different capitals or something. What is he thinking? What is Europe thinking? What is Trump thinking? What should they all be thinking?

spk_0 It's brilliant.

spk_0 How so?

spk_0 It's an asymmetric response. The battlefield in Ukraine is in Stasis. The Russian summer offensive ground into nothing.

spk_0 At their current rate of advance it would take them a century to overrun all of territory Ukraine.

spk_0 Their assessed casualties are short of a million. It's looking bleak. So they're looking for alternative mechanisms to put pressure on Europe.

spk_0 And that is extending combat air patrol over the Baltics. That's for asking the airport Munich.

spk_0 And there's probably activities that we haven't seen unfold yet in public. That there's subversion is a constant component of their active measures.

spk_0 And we're going to see additional fires, maybe railroad troubles, other forms of communication. We're going to see lines that take off in Berlin, extending outside the terminal because people can't check under their flights.

spk_0 It's all about Ukraine more.

spk_0 Yeah, I mean, the thing is when the Russians mean business, there's usually ground forces on your border.

spk_0 So I totally agree with Eric that this is more about trying to prompt a response out of Europe or a non-response rather than suddenly being able to take things on the offensive.

spk_0 Yeah, it's a way to also undermine the cohesion of Europe and just kind of generate some friction between the Allies because some are...

spk_0 hired up about this in the east and some in the west of not so worried. So you get them starting to squabble about what the response is.

spk_0 Our Spanish flight or airplane is going to go and intervene with these or and predict these drones. Probably not.

spk_0 So now it becomes a question of who's really in and who's not.

spk_0 And do we think this is like directly downstream of Trump and truth social and the like Tomahawk discussion?

spk_0 It has to be right.

spk_0 I think it yeah, it's the precision strike provision to the Ukrainians, which has been part of the war for several years.

spk_0 I think Jack Murphy has been writing about this with great precision that American special operations, intelligence community,

spk_0 and partner intelligence services have been developing target packets for the Ukrainians so they can go out beyond their horizon against Russian infrastructure.

spk_0 So that's absolutely part of it. And it's Tomahawk's. It's the Ukrainians having their own sort of intermediate weapons systems that are starting to come online.

spk_0 And it's obviously the Trump team starting to speak about a winnable war for the Ukrainians and demonstrating top to bottom frustration with the Russians not taking peace out returns seriously.

spk_0 And thinking that hey, we do have to actually arm the Ukrainians to keep the war from going put in this way.

spk_0 Yeah, I mean, I think there's some history here of going back to the Carter administration, but the Carter administration came in.

spk_0 It was like we're going to continue to talk to the Russians.

spk_0 You know, we're not going to do all this big military spending. And then by like your two or three, you know, Carter is turning around and starting to authorize new investments, new developments, new deployments.

spk_0 And that's the best case scenario that you're asking for here is that there is a solid turn.

spk_0 You know, with this administration, you can change back and forth on a dime.

spk_0 But I think the fact that they're talking about, you know, sharing target packages changes it a little bit.

spk_0 Yeah, that'll be just neat weapons to be able to reach that far, which gets the Tom Hock discussion.

spk_0 Because we have again many airplanes that can do it.

spk_0 Right. And there's only so many rabbits that they can pull out of hats like the containerized UAS strike against Russian strategic air.

spk_0 I don't want to say it was a one time event, but it's not something that you can necessarily do at scale because of Russian internal services are now looking for that attack template.

spk_0 So they are going to need air-launched strike or surface-to-surface strike that enables them to take those targets.

spk_0 Yeah, at this point, I don't know how you change the conditions on the front lines though.

spk_0 You know, unless you want to mount a pretty massive suppression of any mere defenses campaign and try to push the Russians back.

spk_0 What they can do is attack Russian infrastructure and try to make life more miserable for the Russians and hopefully

spk_0 convince Putin to come to the peace table. So it seems like that's what the strategy is. It's got to these long-range strikes to try to

spk_0 compel Russia to come around on peace negotiations.

spk_0 I still don't understand the logic of like messing around with Munich though. I mean, is the idea that the Germans will be like,

spk_0 oh, this is really annoying that our flights aren't going well. So I guess we should stop supporting Ukraine.

spk_0 I mean, it seems like more than 50-50 chance that this reminds people just how

spk_0 near and obnoxious Russia is as opposed to them deciding, oh wait, we're just gonna sort of

spk_0 wash our hands of all of this.

spk_0 There's a bit of a cliche that happens to be true about their COVID action and COVID influence capacity.

spk_0 They think quite ably about individual discrete operations and that they can

spk_0 can compartmentalize like the Salisbury operation against exiles or they can go after

spk_0 individual aligarks who are falling off the wagon or what have you. You could blow the plate off

spk_0 you've got any preogeans aircraft. They don't, they're not particularly Klaus Witzien and that they

spk_0 don't aggregate these activities into a co-collective hole that they think by virtue of a series of

spk_0 individual actions they can shock Europe into some sort of different or more favorable posture.

spk_0 But it does appear to be like individual FSB or SVR units that are sort of going off books

spk_0 and just showing that they can execute but the idea of there being some master strategy behind it

spk_0 might be assuming too much. Yeah and I assume there's some competition going on between these units.

spk_0 They're trying to demonstrate to Putin that they've got to lead on some good ideas in terms of how

spk_0 do you undermine Europe's competence and its own ability to sustain itself in a conflict with

spk_0 Russia so they're going to go and try to show off for the boss. Yeah I think it also speaks to

spk_0 the state of the you know forces on the ground that these aren't tied to specific operations

spk_0 you're not blowing up you're not seeing railroads get blown up and then the Russians

spk_0 you know rolling down a particular line of attack the next day right like you might see that

spk_0 very close to the front lines but these are much closer to the effects of V1 and V2 bombs

spk_0 hitting London than they are strategic air striking Normandy in advance of an invasion.

spk_0 Putin just thinks they're so soft the Europeans like that is the fundamental thing here that even

spk_0 a little pinprick is going to have them go running away running away with their tails behind

spk_0 their life. George Kennen thought the same there there's this old great line when he got into his

spk_0 old crank part of his life which was effectively the last 30 years of it when he talked about this

spk_0 imagination of risk Russian infantry sweeping the hippies out of Copenhagen with the point of bayonet.

spk_0 It's rarely been a sober observation and let's pull it back to William to come to Sherman to

spk_0 say that you know the effect that the rules aren't going to defend themselves because it is

spk_0 rarely proven accurate in world history. Sherman's got this great line and I can't quote it for the

spk_0 top of my head about yeah he was running a military academy in Louisiana the onset of war and he

spk_0 saw all of these you know secessionists with their plume tats and their cavalry chargers

spk_0 parading around saying how they're going to whip the United States and he's like you people

spk_0 can't build a locomotive you can't stitch a shoe. What on earth are you thinking that once you strike

spk_0 first the full force of the industrial ingenuity of all of New England is going to come crashing down

spk_0 upon your feudal society so please don't do it. Sherman was correct George Kennen was not

spk_0 and I think Putin is aligning himself with the old crank here rather than the successful battlefield

spk_0 commander. Well there may be a piece of it too that Putin is just trying to remind Europe of how he

spk_0 can make their lives more difficult if they choose to start ramping up their support to Ukraine.

spk_0 Yeah he wants to show that they've got these vulnerabilities that he's not looking to start a war

spk_0 with them but he also wants them to stay as much on the sidelines of the Ukraine war as possible.

spk_0 All right um okay we got the uh we got the Sherman quote you people of the south do not know

spk_0 what you are doing this country will be drenched in blood and God only knows how it will end.

spk_0 It is all folly madness a crime against civilization you people speak so lightly of war you don't

spk_0 know what you're talking about war is a terrible thing you mistake to the people of the north

spk_0 they are a peaceable and but an earnest people and they will fight too which is his line as he was

spk_0 superintendent of Louisiana State seminary you know all right speaking of lethality uh we had

spk_0 you know a warrior culture a running theme on the second breakfast uh series which uh perhaps

spk_0 reached its apogee with our secretary of war marching back and forth across the stage behind a

spk_0 giant American flag uh lecturing uh general officers about how they shouldn't be fat among other

spk_0 things. There's like this ocean of commentary about it like you know Cory Shaki is out there and

spk_0 she's obviously correct and we have covered the 20 year advent of warrior ghithos inside the army

spk_0 and how it was supposed to be this cure all for uh indecisive engagement and still the

spk_0 waffling of the American experience uh in iran afghan stan and i don't think we need to

spk_0 cover it again because we're not gonna unveil or anything new but there's just

spk_0 where do these men find American opponents whether they're

spk_0 british or mexican or confederate or spanish or imperial german or

spk_0 box or chinese or hongarians or italians or nazi or north korean or chinese or

spk_0 vietnamese or irakis or afghans or anybody in venez wailin yeah or who says the the americans were

spk_0 insufficiently violent it's like no one north korean Vietnamese come on now oh that's the best

spk_0 example it's like that's a war he's decided we've lost and we're running out it's like we didn't

spk_0 kill enough people there yeah we dropped more tonnage of explosives in the support of the air

spk_0 campaign alone that we did on the entire second world war like the attentively thality is not an

spk_0 american shortcoming and you know we speak of we speak of the patent-esque gesture and there's

spk_0 a really intelligent commentary about the the iconography of the film patent and it's this

spk_0 extraordinary text in american culture because of that the time it came out it came out in the middle

spk_0 of the Vietnam collapse it's like this 1970-71 period where george c scott and this extraordinary regalia

spk_0 gets out in front of a stage and says the americans love to fight and they will never lose a war

spk_0 and that was frances ford copula shouting into the american civic imagination with

spk_0 oh marbredley as the principal advisor to the film talking about this moment in merit this inflection

spk_0 point and it gives us like this romantic hero's journey when he eventually falls apart because of his own

spk_0 shortcomings but the movie while exquisite also obscures like the disposition of the opposition

spk_0 that in the opening uh two acts of the film patent comes in it takes over like the second

spk_0 core in north africa in principally in toodishia that had just been mauled in this off screen

spk_0 engagement with the germans and the solution is that patent puts into place is discipline that he

spk_0 makes officers wear ties and doctors wear helmets and he shuts down breakfasts from six and

spk_0 to eight he says he got to be in there in ten minutes or a half you and he like whips the unit

spk_0 into shape he reads rommel's book and he he bested the term and it's this amazing

spk_0 screenwriting and it's it is often true and of course in how the word fashion it blames the

spk_0 british for incompetent air support or drinking tea or whatever but it obscures the the fact that

spk_0 german uh uh german africa core do i just have fricca core veterans that were experiencing the

spk_0 united's armantunisia uh were especially veterans who had fought the Soviets in the campaigns of 41

spk_0 and 42 were astonished at the rate of fire from american artillery even a casserine that didn't

spk_0 go particularly well that there are these off screen elements of war in the patent story that are

spk_0 obscured in the modern discussion over warrior ethos that we reduce it to wearing an ectide or

spk_0 gunfight which is this absurd demonstration of warrior ethos in the like 2025 environment

spk_0 but it's off screen it's the fact that the united states and the british achieves complete

spk_0 air cover that we had enough a propellant in artillery shells and proper fuses that we could

spk_0 inundate the 21st panzer with uh high explosive in a way that the Soviets could never achieve

spk_0 uh and even in you know just to sum up this part of this rant that i'm going on you know patent

spk_0 being this i can't that this moment of american military understanding that hollywood provided us

spk_0 very similar to the way that black hawk down as it is clearly inspired uh the the secretary uh

spk_0 there's truth of the story and that that there's plenty of it in that screenplay

spk_0 but it's the off screen stuff that wins american wars as well and

spk_0 raving and jabbering about on stashes just doesn't seem to fit the history it seems to capture the

spk_0 the hollywood spirit in a way that uh is curious to me well if you don't plan on fighting any

spk_0 wars overseas because we are with treating from all those overseas engagements then the important

spk_0 thing is to look good yeah i think you know that's uh that when you go to visit i will just say when

spk_0 i traveled with a senior person in the past we remarked sometimes we would visit our counterpart

spk_0 military um and they would be all arrayed in their regalia um but they would have only a very

spk_0 small number of ships or airplanes or or vehicles or whatever so uh their force was actually

spk_0 relatively small and not all that effective but they looked great and that they were more of a it

spk_0 was more of a hobby shop than it was a real military unit that was intended to fight um in a lot of

spk_0 ways this drives the us military towards something that is a show piece rather than a more piece

spk_0 and so that that brings into something there's a lot of commentary around is the PLA a show army

spk_0 or is it a real army right and and i think everyone here would say it's a very real army it's a very

spk_0 powerful army um i think we're getting to the point where we do have to ask that about the american

spk_0 military not in you know stop discounting the the abilities of the average american nco um but if

spk_0 if the strategic intent is to make a military more capable of a show of force than of employing

spk_0 force um that changes a lot of things for both our allies for policy makers um and that's very

spk_0 poorly timed with uh revelations this week that certain cabinet secretaries are threatening to

spk_0 abandon Taiwan if they don't move 50% of their ship production to the neds state capitalism is

spk_0 it's baffling but here we are it's it's peronist uh i didn't finish the opera did it work out for them

spk_0 i mean Madonna started it that's gotta be you know that's good

spk_0 people that stuff happily ever after all right let's talk war gaming

spk_0 brine what's the point uh the point is normally to help people think about the dilemmas they might

spk_0 find themselves in and to think through some of the ways they might make trade-offs to deal with

spk_0 those dilemmas um i think sometimes we treat war gaming as a way to come up with an answer

spk_0 like they're with the right fighter airplane to buy or how many of these ships do i need to

spk_0 to purchase or build um you know and it kind of gives you some maybe insights along those lines but

spk_0 it's much more about thinking about what are the trade-offs you have to make um what are the what's

spk_0 the path dependencies on certain choices that you make just to force people into a situation

spk_0 and have them contend with all the uh the mishigash that happens when you try to build something that

spk_0 takes a long time to build or you try to create um an adaptable force that's able to respond to a

spk_0 bunch of different situations um just making people think about how they're gonna do that so that

spk_0 they can what in one case just have at least thought about it once before they're faced with it

spk_0 in the real world um but then also um give people a way to think about processes and how do we manage

spk_0 a process um that delivers something at the end whether it's a trained operator uh or it's a

spk_0 submarine or it's a missile um we do a lot of war gaming right now for DARPA looking at

spk_0 basically the how do we make for a more effective uh force that uh can take advantage or can

spk_0 exploit the potential vulnerabilities of the PLA as we see it mighty bald so I think um it's mostly

spk_0 about making people think through challenges and how they're gonna prioritize their efforts um rather

spk_0 than coming up with some definitive answer have you have you is there a war gaming for like aesthetics

spk_0 like what if in 2035 like actually the like ideal BMI is like seven points higher than it is today

spk_0 and you know blue haircuts are you know the most important thing for like blending into our like

spk_0 cyberpunk you know urban battlefield um absolutely okay we'll work on that one Eric why do you

spk_0 spend so much your life on this uh it is twofold one it's a way to interrogate history it's a text

spk_0 to me uh I've always been interested in military history and war gaming helps me

spk_0 frame questions of time and space and supply and consequence uh in a

spk_0 completely uh hazard-free environment uh so for me it's expanding my understanding of

spk_0 uh certain historical circumstances and that it is like the primary value the second value

spk_0 to Brian's point I think they're exceptional risk management tools like there there's

spk_0 a thematic training that you can derive from it that you can uh an exercise that uh I've built

spk_0 and I've exercised it's a very simple World War One simulation where uh the parties to the conflict

spk_0 all write down their operating assumptions like what's the opposition's most dangerous

spk_0 courts of action what's their most likely uh what do we have to do to achieve our objectives

spk_0 they write it they like put it in an envelope set it aside and then they re-engage a couple of

spk_0 turns later and they can retest their operating assumptions so there it is a tool for refined thinking

spk_0 and then the third component uh what are the reasons that I collect games and it's what are my

spk_0 primary hobbies is uh it's meditative it gets me off the screen and that's more a feature of the

spk_0 modern world but I like the analog component of it that I don't necessarily want to be on my work

spk_0 computer all day and then shift over to my good screen at night and just like watch better call

spk_0 soul I I want to just sit and move figures around hexes and think about like yeah I it where I

spk_0 in charge of the imperial German forces in uh august 1914 how would I have negotiated the

spk_0 French order of battle like could I have done it better like that exercises meaningful to me

spk_0 so it's really a multi decade process of being in and out award a personal level but finding that

spk_0 my understanding of contemporary issues in American or international politics are I think

spk_0 improved when I I test those theories in these micro scenarios yeah it's a it's a useful way to

spk_0 get people also out of thinking about all the you're kind of mundane or policy

spk_0 challenges they're running into like we're running we're we're at DARPA this morning preparing for a

spk_0 war game and those guys tend to focus a lot on um you're thinking about uh policy considerations

spk_0 what are we dealing with in terms of the choices that the department wants to make or does

spk_0 I want to make and by taking it out of that and focusing just on the technological and operational

spk_0 factors you can think through the problem at least in a more discrete way instead of trying to

spk_0 solve the whole bundle of problems simultaneously do you typically use Bay DeMesurer simulations

spk_0 or do you use commercial off-the-shelf options now we yeah make the measure we bake the tools and

spk_0 the game every time um so and that's I find even to your point Eric that uh even when we do a war

spk_0 game that's that's basically being adjudicated via computer we create the whole game board and all

spk_0 the cards and all the material pieces because that tactile elements is really important especially if

spk_0 you have a group of people they can stand around the map and sort of look at it and move pieces around

spk_0 and talk about different courses of action and how they want to do it but if you have it all in a

spk_0 screen or we just kind of look at the screen and only one person's clicking on things and everybody

spk_0 else sort of checks out so having that be a tactile sort of interactive environment and then you can

spk_0 the other game tool can go adjudicate things but so you don't want to have people just playing on

spk_0 the computer game yeah you bring it up a point that's wrapped up into an issue we elevated earlier

spk_0 and we took over to 20 after this uh board game designers and publishers that I monitor because

spk_0 you know I buy games and they are screaming about tariffs uh if you look back at the like the

spk_0 the avalan hill game avalan hill is a gaming company in the 70s that turns what was really a niche

spk_0 uh interest into more of a popularized industry that was sort of as popular as Dungeons and Dragons

spk_0 for a bit but but it faded considerably and I have some of these games because they're collectors

spk_0 items but the maps and the graphics are like in three colors it doesn't look like much you really

spk_0 have to be interested in like NATO uh operational terms and graphics to like it but in the last 20 years

spk_0 extraordinarily sophisticated printing is available in China and you're getting games that have

spk_0 individualized soldiers unique graphics hand painted maps they they're like fluxes boxes they're

spk_0 like extraordinarily sophisticated games with multiple trackers all your different units rendered

spk_0 in like really really careful art and you can get these sets that have hundreds of hours of replay

spk_0 for like $75 and all of these companies import from China and now that is totally broken

spk_0 so gaming isn't a huge industry there's only it's not anything close to video gaming but

spk_0 these publishers who do it out of a labor of love it's not like particularly lucrative uh

spk_0 are like having to say is this worth it anymore?

spk_0 Dude speaking of asymmetric responses where is the Chinese like export ban on war games to like make

spk_0 our make our force dumber? Well they're we actually get all materials made in Canada there's a company

spk_0 in Canada that does game material production and so we design it all here we ship off a bunch of

spk_0 files and then they ship it back in a week but they'll do all the maps and all the cars

spk_0 and all the tokens and all that stuff it's pretty cool um and not that super expensive I mean it's

spk_0 it's uh you know a lot cheaper than you would anticipate

spk_0 so um when I was on the hill which was probably when war gaming started to come back into play for

spk_0 senior leaders um you know you obviously you have to make war games for different audiences

spk_0 and the average you know policymaker on the hill or an OSD is not the same person as the

spk_0 0405 that's got 15 20 years of experience leading right? One how do you change war games for

spk_0 different audiences so that it's effective? And two and this this question comes from a mutual

spk_0 friend of ours is you know everyone wants to put the newest thing in a war game? How do you

spk_0 adequately pace new war games for new technologies without you know basically rendering them useless

spk_0 by chasing every new UAS or whatever? Yes so we um so we end up building as you know these games

spk_0 would scratch every time um but we can reuse a lot of the mechanics we can use the methodology

spk_0 over again um so it's iterative and that we're able to take what we learned for a previous

spk_0 DARPA war game and apply it to the next DARPA war game or the next navy war game um and if you

spk_0 if you build your game to be extensible in a way that allows you to plug in a new piece

spk_0 without disrupting the entire balance of the game it's not too hard. I think what happens is though

spk_0 if you incorporate some game changing technology literally it ends up unbalancing the game and now

spk_0 you make it so that whoever's got this thing has got the you know the um the death star or the

spk_0 the black hole weapon so I think we want to make sure we avoid that but um but it's not too bad

spk_0 I mean it's that you you can incorporate them in without a huge amount of disruption if you've

spk_0 designed your game with that kind of modularity in mind. I'm sorry you're coming in broken and

spk_0 readable. It's that uh that Manhattan Wi-Fi you know. Was it like anybody track him the uh secret

spk_0 service over ran some sort of a server farm in Manhattan that had like a war fair component like

spk_0 yeah it was right before the UN speech right? Yeah it was around its ungun they like they we got

spk_0 this huge server farm that's got a EW component whatever happened there.

spk_0 Maybe like a custom mesh network for like criminals or if it was like an actual like you know

spk_0 it's an actual plot. Eric Adams looking for the gems the power in New York City.

spk_0 Okay. Yeah because it's interesting and enforcement action from secret service because

spk_0 their jurisdiction is super interesting. You would think that uh FBI New York would have tried

spk_0 to claim responsibility for a clear CI issue. Yeah yeah that seems like it's that's their job.

spk_0 There's probably some I'm sure there's infighting you know obviously everybody's trying to just like in

spk_0 Russia. I was trying to get in front of the boss and maybe this was perceived as not a great move to

spk_0 show that you were going after the Chinese but the boss wouldn't like that. Maybe you're better off

spk_0 letting the secret service take the hit for that. Yeah. Brian I want to get back to the war gaming

spk_0 thing because another uh you know one of the things you said you wanted to talk about was the lack

spk_0 of emphasis on cyber and electronic warfare when that's what you need to uh win a numerical advantage

spk_0 but like war gaming that is a lot less straightforward than like a logistics war game where you have

spk_0 like eight things over here and you can move them on the hexes like across the Pacific or what have

spk_0 you. Yeah so I mean that that made the the issue is if in in the world where the deal US military

spk_0 has got to go overseas we're always the away team and we're up against in the case of China the

spk_0 world's manufacturing powerhouse. How are we going to get an edge over that adversary in his own

spk_0 backyard? Well we're going to rely on cyber and electronic warfare to a large degree but you

spk_0 don't see the kind of industrial base mobilization all the talk including companies like Serrano

spk_0 or others that are making investments in building out the industrial infrastructure to support a

spk_0 lot of kinetic capacity lots of startups lots of money be going into that not nearly as much money

spk_0 going into the the non-kinetic side so cyber and electronic warfare. There's no ecosystem of startups

spk_0 there's no efforts to build out test ranges where people can come demonstrate their stuff and show

spk_0 off how cool they can take down somebody's network or how they can make the electromagnetic spectrum

spk_0 unusable in an area. That ends up being you know the military has to pull that out of the industry

spk_0 and then that get industry makes investments only as long as they think there's a demand signal

spk_0 from the DOD. So it's this huge gap where we depend on this capability area utterly in the high

spk_0 end fight it overseas context yet we're not investing the kind of ecosystem that allows us to

spk_0 push these capabilities out at scale because unlike a telehawk which blows up pretty much anything

spk_0 it hits a cyber tool is only going to work if the thing that you really understand the target

spk_0 and then once you've used it it's probably burned you need another one so it'd be like having

spk_0 a tomahawk that only works again once and then you got to build a different weapon to go up to the

spk_0 next target and you just don't see inside the DOD and effort on how do I actually build out that

spk_0 industrial base to create a different weapon every time I need to use it because we are so used to

spk_0 blowing things up Brian when it comes to electronic warfare I think folks kind of think that all EW

spk_0 is the same so to your point like what is the difference being the away team trying to use EW

spk_0 versus being the home team say for example from the Chinese mainland like what are the challenges

spk_0 there what are the advantages to each side yeah so I you know that so the Chinese can use a lot

spk_0 of barrage jamming they can just blot out like you see in Russia and Ukraine or in Ukraine

spk_0 Russia and Ukraine are going after each other but a lot of barrage jamming just rendering parts of

spk_0 the electromagnetic spectrum unusable in an area for a time um trying to can do a lot of that um

spk_0 and uh because they're the home team they just have to sort of keep us from being effective while

spk_0 they go and take care of their business uh we're against the Philippines or Taiwan or

spk_0 remember um whereas we've got to get in there we have to one be able to move around in the spectrum

spk_0 to stay stay alive operating that environment when somebody's barrage jamming lots of parts of

spk_0 the spectrum so we need this ability to be mobile maneuver in the spectrum and then we also need

spk_0 this ability to send specific uh attacks against the enemy because we're trying to stop them from

spk_0 doing something so we have to somehow intervene get in there and interject ourselves and a lot of

spk_0 times that means using what's called a radio frequency enabled cyber attack uh because of China's

spk_0 networks are all firewalled and self-contained the only way in is through an antenna somewhere or

spk_0 through somebody's um you know some aperture that was left open uh and that's going to mean my

spk_0 cyber tool has to ride on some kind of electromagnetic signal which means I've got to use a electronic

spk_0 warfare system to deliver that cyber tool which means I got to build a very specific technique for

spk_0 that particular operation that's probably only useful against one target one time and then I

spk_0 follow on that can you talk about how that impacts the operational tempo for the rest of the

spk_0 conventional forces yeah they're they're gonna depend on that you've got a you know just like a

spk_0 special forces operation where these guys have to go in and blow up this sensor this radio or take

spk_0 out this command center or render this missile system unusable so that I can come in with the rest

spk_0 of the force uh they depend on some electronic warfare going in and jamming up radar and taking it

spk_0 at least temporarily with electromagnetic uh energy that's targeted in a very specific way to go

spk_0 after that radar um or somehow inject a cyber tool through a radio frequency aperture um or else

spk_0 we're hanging out with the rest of the force kind of sitting around waiting for something to

spk_0 happen so that we can get in because otherwise they'll find they'll see us right away and they'll

spk_0 be able to engage us at you know mass scale um so we really depend on those operations happening

spk_0 early and then also continuing on through the mission um and if you don't have that uh in

spk_0 a lot of cases the the model show models show that we just don't succeed so you got to have that

spk_0 you got to have that early effort to take out the sensor and communications of the opponent um

spk_0 sort of like I want to come back brand to the

spk_0 recultural or like the way acquisitions is set up reasons for why this isn't a hot thing

spk_0 people care about i mean it's it's it's less legible than like a spec sheet of how

spk_0 fast a thing is and how much explosives are on it um but you know we figured out how to do

spk_0 less legible things in the past right we're like now working our way through um

spk_0 buying AI tools and various shapes and forms right so it's not impossible for the US government to

spk_0 get smart err um about less kinetic stuff yeah so the the the issue like on the industry side

spk_0 the challenges um all of these um electromagnetic tools cyber tools are highly threat coupled

spk_0 meaning you need to understand the target really well to to be able to craft the weapon to go up

spk_0 against it um so if your industry I can't just build tomahawk's or I can't if I'm like

spk_0 andrall I can't go just build a bunch of hammerhead uh missiles or whatever and then and then

spk_0 market those to the government because they'll go after whatever target happens to be in that domain

spk_0 with this I got to get with the government understand the target that they want to address

spk_0 and then I got to go invest money to go build a tool and then I got to try to sell it to the

spk_0 government so the industrial incentives are such that you're just going to wait till the government

spk_0 gives you a requirement and then you're going to build to that requirement as opposed to trying

spk_0 to build things on spec with the anticipation that these things might work against you know the

spk_0 targets of the government's trying to to go after um and on the government side uh there's this

spk_0 unwillingness to be more open about what are the targets they want to tackle and what are the

spk_0 what intelligence do they have on them uh and then uh making those modeling environments available so

spk_0 that startups and companies can come in and show their stuff show off their stuff whereas um

spk_0 their the government's more than happy to do that at like a china lake where they'll they'll

spk_0 they'll have our test range they operate people could come and embleau stuff up um that's easy but if

spk_0 you want to do non-kinetics you're going to have to not just have the range the virtual range but

spk_0 you also have to give a bunch of intelligence over you have to then work with the company to figure

spk_0 out what's the delivery mechanism for this is it a network is it a jammer what's the the tool that

spk_0 actually delivers this cyber effect so there's a bunch of uh there's a bunch of interaction that

spk_0 has to happen there's a there's a lot of government effort has to go into making it possible for

spk_0 a larger number of players to enter this market um and without those without the industrial incentives

spk_0 and without the government incentives we just sit there with this very thin line of development

spk_0 that's happening purely as a result of government requirements being uh published and industries

spk_0 satisfying them as a submarine or right like obviously you know you guys are particularly sensitive

spk_0 to any sort of EM mission or other sound given off right what do either more games or broadly what

spk_0 policymakers often get wrong about how subs can and cannot operate particularly in the Pacific

spk_0 I think there's this um perception that they uh that they can operate and do their entire mission

spk_0 without being revealed and once you start doing anything out so you can get out there probably

spk_0 and not get detected but once you start launching autonomous vehicles or launching weapons

spk_0 you're making a bunch of noise you're generating some uh some flaming data coming out of missiles uh

spk_0 that is going to make you uh obviously detected and it's not going to be much of a challenge for

spk_0 the Chinese to come out and just start dropping weapons on that location and hoping that they hit

spk_0 something um and if they don't hit something it doesn't really matter because the submarine has to

spk_0 leave you don't the other thing people don't realize or don't think about is submarine is don't have a

spk_0 lot of defensive weapons right there's really no way once you're getting shot at to stop that from

spk_0 happening whereas a surface ship can use its egeous pistol defense system um or uh an airplane can

spk_0 maneuver out of the way very easily or more easily but a submarine you're slow you have no self-defense

spk_0 once you're discovered you kind of have to just leave and try to get hidden again um and so once

spk_0 you start doing anything you create this very limited window which you can act before you have to

spk_0 vacate uh and then you're you're no longer part of the of the plan um so I think a lot of times

spk_0 we they miss that thinking oh the submarines will get in they'll do some of the initial a lot of the

spk_0 initial ops and that'll make it easy for the rest of the force to succeed and not necessarily

spk_0 true once the once those first few shots go off it's going to be a free for all there and the

spk_0 submarines have to decide whether they want to stay in there and hope for the best or if they want

spk_0 to leave and and try to come back and fight another day um like what is your take on the chances

spk_0 of AI actually being able AI being able to do submarine detection uh I there's already a lot of

spk_0 work going on there the us already uses AI on-sonar systems to recognize targets because you're just

spk_0 trying to pull very faint signals out of background data in a lot of cases it's just uh pattern

spk_0 recognition um so AI is already making a big difference on submarines and uh on these shore like

spk_0 SOSIS sites where they uh pick up the the the information from the sensors that are the C floor

spk_0 AI gets used a lot already um on it I think it's just going to continue to get better because it's

spk_0 a problem that's sort of tailor made for AI or machine learning uh because it's uh pattern

spk_0 recognition on a very narrow data set you can train it um even automate that training process

spk_0 um so AI is really rapidly improving the ability to pick up those faint sounds which means out

spk_0 in so in submarine land what we're talking about is okay we probably need to stop focusing on just

spk_0 getting quieter we need to think about creating more noise in the water so that they're it's harder

spk_0 to find us so that go back to get kind of what the aircraft have done is uh they focus on jamming

spk_0 and um obscuration uh rather than just trying to hide the airplane with stealth um and so we're

spk_0 having to do the same thing in the undersea domain now people talk all the time especially after

spk_0 Ukraine in 22 of you know the the battlefield is transparent right and that's talked about for

spk_0 subs it's talked about for tanks um you know what is the actual transparency level of the battlefield

spk_0 and how do you still conduct mill deck in an age of you know pervasive sensors so the battlefields

spk_0 uh transparent um at short ranges i think what we know the Ukraine what we've seen is a lot of

spk_0 have feet a lot of drones fpv drones including other drones but a lot of visibility on the

spk_0 battle space but in localized areas where you're looking um and it's a relatively small battlefield

spk_0 so you can get a pretty dense view of it um i think you go into any other battlefield where it's

spk_0 more spread out suddenly that gets harder um at sea uh it's obviously easy because you don't

spk_0 have to rain to hide in um but under water it gets just as obscure it's it's very difficult to find

spk_0 things under water still even um with really sophisticated sonar is even with machine learning

spk_0 uh the detection ranges are still relatively short um so even with the improvements that have been

spk_0 happening to sonar you still need to pick up that noise at at some level to be able to at to to

spk_0 start pulling it out of the background um so i'd say you know a little bit longer but you're

spk_0 still talking about really short range detections um and if it's the ocean you're talking about

spk_0 there's a lot of ocean that you would have to search uh to be able to find that um so i think what

spk_0 so what what i so it's not really transparent um but we are seeing though is uh one is this idea

spk_0 of shifting back to active sonar um using active sonar again to find things under water just like

spk_0 we use radar to find things about the water now you reveal yourself by using active sonar but if you're

spk_0 a fast surface ship or if you're an airplane you really don't care so you're going to drop active

spk_0 sonar as in the water um like uh multi-static acoustic boorys and then pick up submarines that way

spk_0 and then it doesn't matter how quiet you are because all it matters is how much noise can i

spk_0 generate to bounce off of you so i think battle fields are becoming more transparent but it's

spk_0 relatively short ranges um and this idea of sort of uh panopticon being able to see the entire

spk_0 battle space and understand what's happening that's difficult and then the other thing is mildeck

spk_0 still works if you look at Ukraine those guys do a lot of mildeck they do a lot of decoys um

spk_0 you know they they can be effective at longer ranges if you get an fpb drone over there and you can

spk_0 look at directly at the decoy you can figure out that it's a decoy but if you're doing this

spk_0 reconnaissance using space or using a higher altitude drone you may not be able to understand it

spk_0 and if your cameras aren't that good on your drone you may not be able to discern the decoy from

spk_0 the real thing um and what they're also doing is you put camouflage over the real thing and the decoy

spk_0 so now you're having to discern a camouflage decoy from a camouflaged real thing uh which seems

spk_0 like a lot of hassle to go through but if you're getting shot at i suppose that's an acceptable level

spk_0 of hassle to deal with um but yes we're seeing some interesting changes in terms of um the battle

spk_0 fee is getting more transparent but there's still ways to operate effectively in it but you have to

spk_0 think about maybe generating a lot more background noise um or thinking about putting decoys out

spk_0 there a greater scale and you know there's just more effort needed to achieve the level of um

spk_0 I guess uh uh confusion or the to to disturb the opponent's orient process if you think about the

spk_0 utelope um rather than trying to prevent observation you're just trying to prevent if we're

spk_0 understanding what's going on one of the odds that Putin tries some drone shenanigans over the next

spk_0 few months in America i'd say they're pretty high i mean we've already seen the Chinese doing it uh

spk_0 so i don't see any reason why the Russians wouldn't attempt it as well too now i think it's going

spk_0 to be a tool like so that if Trump says some more things about you currently being able to win

spk_0 this might be a way to send a message that hey you guys aren't so safe over there right

spk_0 yeah if if the Russians aren't cultivating American doofuses right now and encouraging them to

spk_0 float uas in like flight patterns around lax or something like that then Russian services

spk_0 are not punching their weight that's right they they don't necessarily have and they can do it

spk_0 like through tiktok and be like hey if you do this pattern of uas it's you're going to get 12

spk_0 million views because people will think it's an alien and like the the Russians have successfully

spk_0 exploited a challenge yeah exactly they need some 19th rate influencer who's trying to make

spk_0 spawns online and you try to create alien scares and if you do it over a certain infrastructure or

spk_0 like near three mile islands and greater aresburg or something like that you get people's eyes on it

spk_0 then you get both you know monetization you get harassment you increase uh american stupid

spk_0 yeah you task law enforcement you inculcate low trust behaviors i mean

spk_0 it it it is entirely plausible that they do this and that they can do it completely remotely like

spk_0 you don't have to have alpha units come into the uas to do it you just you just found a doofus

spk_0 and say do you want eleven hundred dollars am i sorry i'm just thinking about the

spk_0 i'm just thinking about like the mr. p's challenges of i locked this man in a burning building for

spk_0 24 hours or whatever and it's point this lady exactly right oh yes so emery opt-in is basically the

spk_0 father grandfather of swat based and and combine arms tactics in the united states um

spk_0 you know there's a bunch of other thinkers that go into it but he's really the first man who

spk_0 you know at eighteen sixty four um if i'm correct it's during the uh

spk_0 battle the what the spots of ania um where he basically creates these innovative tactics where it's

spk_0 hey it's not just go up there fire in the line it's like go up there rush the defenses push through

spk_0 push through the gap um and what you might think of is is that the first real you know

spk_0 breach conducted in a way that might resemble a modern breach the god there's going to be some

spk_0 little hit military historian who yells at me about this but i don't care um anyway i in the united

spk_0 states army he's kind of regarded as the father of many of the reforms uh that took place from

spk_0 professional pme to the professional professional officer ship uh to real training to those kind of

spk_0 squad based tactics where you see people acting independently in concert in support of each other um

spk_0 he took a lot from the pressions and others um as secretary defense rock another sub-stacker wrote

spk_0 an excellent article on this um he does have some negative you know impacts too he was very much

spk_0 about separating the uh military officer corps from the civilians uh if it was up to him he

spk_0 simply would not have had any civilians in the dod i'm sure there are some people who would agree

spk_0 with that um as a former contractor in the Pentagon i have mixed feelings um um but yeah so the reason

spk_0 why we're we're talking about him is is the whole word read those and everything it's how much

spk_0 of what you do is a soldier either as a leader or as an individual is just being the strongest

spk_0 fastest person you can be or is it you being the first person to say actually we should do

spk_0 something else right you know innovation goes beyond getting to trl 9 um it's new tactics

spk_0 it's new doctrine um it's new ways of communicating on the battlefield under new forms of fire

spk_0 what do you think is the correlation between technical innovation and fitness think of it as

spk_0 three health bars that you're in skyrim and every individual soldier has one that is biological

spk_0 health one that is physical stamina and one that is like a spree decor and the first one to go is

spk_0 your physical stamina so the higher your score is for the RPG the longer you're going to last and

spk_0 then that is not going to start chipping away at your a spree decor that physical fitness is a

spk_0 core component of resilience under stress uh war gaming in the american context both being over a

spk_0 tabletop or being at a live fire exercise is designed to simulate certain forces forms of stress

spk_0 that the the laser tag that you do at the joint readiness training center the national training

spk_0 center is so much valuable but what is really valuable for institutions is sleep deprivation

spk_0 because then you start to witness collective acts of unique stupidity that can only be generated

spk_0 through multiple days or two hours of sleep with bad diet so not to take any balsists

spk_0 thunder and not to simplify it and say it's like a health bar in skyrim or in fallout for

spk_0 fallout three or new figures or what have you but it is kind of like that and if your physical

spk_0 stamina is really low then you're going to start to want to quit a lot earlier uh you know just

spk_0 I've always kind of a runner I'm not I'm not great at it and I'm a collegiate athlete or anything

spk_0 but I got by took it very seriously when I was in the army because he has an army officer your

spk_0 value is based on how quickly he could run two miles and I decided to try and compete but

spk_0 when i was in bagdad i've been dropping in you know 108 degrees and you've got uh 70 to 90 pounds of

spk_0 kit and weapon on you and you're walking the streets of bagdad like trying to forge some sort of

spk_0 a political settlement uh I was just able to go longer and farther than most of the soldiers

spk_0 uh under my responsibility I was leading troops in a field artillery unit there and field artillery

spk_0 is not historically known for physical prowess or excellence or running but I don't know what it

spk_0 is you know like i'm an e-yorker and i was just able to process heat better like i sweat like

spk_0 everybody else but the fact that i would run more just gave me an edge like and so far as the

spk_0 e-rock war RPG that i was playing in 2006 my stamina bar was a little stronger than other peoples

spk_0 yeah and the thing is is you can blame this somewhat on i think we talked about in our chat of like

spk_0 the focus on company level in the low right that everyone loves to obsess over that that's their

spk_0 first experience in the army of like who's the fastest runner who's the best shooter etc and so

spk_0 it's easy to say well it's just because we're trying to focus on tactics instead of strategy

spk_0 and that's true however i'd also say even at the tactical lever level your 240 gunner is not

spk_0 the same guy you're gonna put through the door first is not the same person that you're gonna kick

spk_0 out of the Bradley first um and so like you still have to be smart about your choices even at the

spk_0 tactical level and that we're throwing that away purely for imagery um is going to be immensely

spk_0 destructive to all of the lessons we learned even during the global war on terror. Absent something

spk_0 from like neuro-mancer where you're like popping stoppills or gopils or you're putting in

spk_0 ocular implants or you've told he's written about this stuff like that there's forms of human

spk_0 evolution that you can accelerate through technology i think the army's or the broader pentagonist

spk_0 concept of innovation does lend itself towards magical thinking and like that the basics of

spk_0 soldiering whether it's physical fitness or being able to engage targets three to three meters

spk_0 without aided sites like that stuff still counts and there's no tool that we're going to acquire

spk_0 from a defense startup that is going to fix the problem of digging a hole and hiding in it with

spk_0 overhead cover because indirect fire is going to be coming but there are just enduring principles

spk_0 that continue to need to be embraced and you cannot buy innovation to escape from them.

spk_0 It always confused me why the Gundams needed people in them.

spk_0 Like if we're if we're that cool like can't they just be on the home planet or like in a spaceship

spk_0 nearby or something like well it's the great question in in Star Wars why do the X-Wings do

spk_0 barrel rolls into the attack they do it in Star Wars 4 they do it in Rogue One and the answer is

spk_0 that they are modeled off of spitfires because spitfires would go into a stall if they moved into

spk_0 certain attack approaches against BF109's and the battle of Britain so there are just there's

spk_0 weirdness that we reflect in our science fiction that when you unpack it it makes no sense.

spk_0 It looks cool as hell I mean there's a certain age of us like when we saw the final act of Rogue One

spk_0 and we saw the Star Wars expanded universe finally respected and like what all they

spk_0 win the yellow group and you called blue they all check in and you see the pilots that when

spk_0 you know died attacking the death star like that was pretty cool with that you know that it makes

spk_0 no sense for starfighters to be engaging in dog fights it would be much closer to the Forever War

spk_0 like Haldeman's book where like an alien shoots a pebble at you from 10 million kilometers away

spk_0 and it destroys your entire cruiser because it's at point 999 this be a light.

spk_0 This is an excellent plug for the Forever War if you have if you're in policy if you like

spk_0 military history and you have not read Haldeman's the Forever War you're wrong it is perhaps the

spk_0 preeminent work of science fiction and warfare yeah it's got the the best read on culture shock

spk_0 that you could probably ever put into a book there's these Vietnam-era clichés of returning home

spk_0 and you know nobody will respect you in uniform and John Rambo says if they just let us win we

spk_0 would have been fine but Haldeman of Vietnam that captures it and puts it in like an imagined

spk_0 America of like the 1990s the 2020s and then like 3000 years in the future and it is

spk_0 unsettling like it's unpleasant to read but it's absolutely essential.

spk_0 All right I think maybe we'll close it on that thank you so much for being a part of second

spk_0 breakfast GMT games give us a call we're looking for a sponsor and free games.

spk_0 I want you to remember that no bastard ever won war by dying for his country

spk_0 you want it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country

spk_0 man all this stuff you heard about America not wanting to fight wanting to stay out of the war

spk_0 is a lot of horse down Americans traditionally love to fight all real Americans love the

spk_0 sting of battle when you were kids you all admired the champion marble shoot at the fastest

spk_0 runner big league ball players the toughest boxers Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a

spk_0 loser Americans played a win all the time I wouldn't give a hoot and hell for a man who lost and

spk_0 laughed that's why Americans have never lost and will never lose a war because the very thought of

spk_0 losing is hateful to America now an army is a team it lives each sleep fights as a team this

spk_0 individuality stuffs a bunch of crap the biggest bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality

spk_0 for the Saturday evening post don't know anything more about real battle than they do about fornicating

spk_0 now we have the finest food and equipment the best spirit and the best man in the world

spk_0 you know oh god I actually pity those poor bastards we're going up again by god I do we're not

spk_0 just going to shoot the bastards we're going to cut out their living guts and use them to grease

spk_0 the treads of our tanks we're going to murder those lousy hung bastards by the busher now

spk_0 some of you boys I know a wandering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire don't worry about

spk_0 I can assure you that you will all do your duty the Nazis are the enemy

spk_0 wait into that spill their blood shoot them in the belly when you put your hand into a bunch of

spk_0 goo that a moment before was your best friend's face you know what to do now there's nothing

spk_0 I want you to remember I don't want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position

spk_0 we're not holding anything let the hand do that we are advancing constantly and we're not

spk_0 interested in holding on anything except the enemy we're going to hold on to him by the nose

spk_0 and we're going to kick him in the ass we're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're

spk_0 well there's one thing that you man will be able to say when you get back home

spk_0 and you may thank god for it 30 years from now when you're sitting around your fireside

spk_0 with the grandson on your knee and he asked you what did you do in the Great World War II

spk_0 you won't have to say well I shoveled shit in Louisiana

spk_0 all right now you son-to-bitches you know how I feel

spk_0 you know I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle anytime anywhere

spk_0 that's all

Second Breakfast: Putin's Drones, SecWar Patton, Wargaming, Finding Subs

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