Opening the Alaska Front—Civilian Facades and Strategic Moves

Interactive Transcript

spk_0 Welcome to China Watch, the place for China experts, with the epic times one of America's

spk_0 largest independent newspapers. I'm your host, Terry Wu, here in Washington, D.C.

spk_0 As a Chinese American, I've observed the actions of the Chinese regime for years, especially

spk_0 in how it interacts with the United States. I look at it from an economic angle, because

spk_0 that's what I studied and do for living. And I look at it from an ethical angle, because

spk_0 that's what I care about. The epic times have selected me to share these findings with

spk_0 you, fellow China watchers, because they know I'll do the best.

spk_0 For today's show, everything is about Alaska. Okay, maybe some of my dear China watchers

spk_0 are thinking, okay, Terry, I get it. You're stuck in D.C. You want to escape to the furthest

spk_0 lands in America that you can. While you're right, I do love Alaska. Don't get me wrong.

spk_0 The videos just can't capture the majesty of that northern land. I mean, I would even go as far

spk_0 as to say that I would like to retire there. When we were there in 2018, my husband had a very

spk_0 interesting description of it. This is where the higher beings rest before their death. I thought

spk_0 he had a point. It certainly explained, divide, powerful, tranquil, and with just a hint of

spk_0 sadness. In fact, I won't even call it sadness. It's the inner piece of meeting one's destiny.

spk_0 It's a solemn land. My husband's words resonated with me and my culture. In a Chinese creation

spk_0 story, the deity Panggu fell exhausted upon creating the world. When he died, his breasts turned into

spk_0 wind and clouds. His eyes became the sun and the moon. His limbs transformed into mountains.

spk_0 And to make light of that story, there's no mention of which part turned into oil and natural

spk_0 gas. You can imagine where I'm going with that, which we'll get to. So even though this sounded like

spk_0 an advertisement for Alaska tourism, I just had to share my love for Alaska. But alas, this isn't

spk_0 the wintery pleasure cruise that I would much rather be going on. It involves boats, yes,

spk_0 but in a much more serious fashion. When I saw in the news that Chinese research vessels came three

spk_0 times, once a month in the past three months near Alaska, I said, I must cover it. And just like

spk_0 Chinese fishing boats too much more than just fishing in the South China Sea, Chinese research

spk_0 vessels are likely doing more than just research off the coast of Alaska. Or to be explicit,

spk_0 we'll be going into their dual civilian and military use. So to begin our voyage and with the

spk_0 military in mind, let's first talk about grey zone tactics. The Rand Corporation, a global policy

spk_0 thing tank, defines grey zone tactics as quote, coercive actions that are shy of armed conflict,

spk_0 but beyond normal diplomatic, economic and other activities. So basically provoking opponents

spk_0 just below the threshold of war. And when we hear about grey zone tactics, we've seen the most

spk_0 news about that in the Indo-Pacific. For example, the South China Sea, but the Chinese regime is

spk_0 doing similar things near the United States. It just hasn't made many headlines. So why is China

spk_0 doing this? Is it an inescapable urge to poke a hornet's nest? And how has the United States

spk_0 responded? In this episode, we will cover the broader context of polar competition. We don't

spk_0 often hear about it, but it's of growing importance. And what the United States does now,

spk_0 similar in severity to things like rear-ers control and AI development, most likely, will either

spk_0 secure or lose advantages in the next decades. So make sure you stay until the end.

spk_0 Okay, let's first talk about what happened near Alaska before zooming out to the big picture.

spk_0 The United States Coast Guard issued six statements between the end of July and beginning of

spk_0 September. All about the same thing. All the statements were related to Chinese research

spk_0 vessels operating in the US Arctic, north of Alaska. In one of the statements, the Coast Guard said

spk_0 that there has been a three-year trend of increased activity from Chinese research vessels in

spk_0 the same area. The waters within 200 nautical miles of a country's coastline belong to the country.

spk_0 That rule comes from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UN clause.

spk_0 Although the United States has not ratified the UN clause largely due to disputes over deep sea

spk_0 mining, it observes the majority of the convention. The area in which the Chinese vessel operated

spk_0 was what's called an extended continental shelf. That means the landmass beyond 200 nautical miles

spk_0 of the coastline. Picture a globe of the earth. It's right in the Arctic circle, somewhere between

spk_0 the North Pole and Alaska. A country has exclusive rights regularly scientific research in its extended

spk_0 continental shelf. Other countries need to obtain consent before conducting any research there.

spk_0 And this is where the first violation of the UN rules comes up. That grey zone provocation I was

spk_0 talking about. China didn't coordinate its operations in the US extended continental shelf north of

spk_0 Alaska with the United States. After one research vessel was chased off in July, it returned in August

spk_0 with four more vessels. Kind of a, come and get me moved by China, isn't it? In August, the US

spk_0 Coast Guard moved two ships, an icebreaker and a cutter to Alaska to increase its presence.

spk_0 Then between August 31 and September 2, two out of the five Chinese research vessels reappeared

spk_0 near Alaska. The ships stood it right before returning to China. A senior officer for an American

spk_0 icebreaker told Breaking Defense a digital news platform, the China ships unannounced seemingly

spk_0 unapproved presence in American waters, is concerning and outside international norms.

spk_0 A former official of the Department of Homeland Security told the news outlet that the fact that

spk_0 Coast Guard responded to China's actions meant that the United States treated China's aggression

spk_0 as a grey zone activity, not a military threat, requiring escalation or a defense-oriented response.

spk_0 In August 2023, though, 11 Russian and Chinese military ships steamed near Alaska in a joint

spk_0 patrol. That triggered a US Navy response with four destroyers and a P8 Poseidon aircraft

spk_0 shattering them. The foreign ships stayed in international waters. But this time in July 2025,

spk_0 the Chinese came back with research vessels. The Chinese regime has been rejecting any claims about

spk_0 its research vessels doing anything beyond normal scientific activities.

spk_0 Oh my goodness, guys, stop overreacting! We're totally doing pure scientific research out here.

spk_0 Does nothing militaristic about this? Or in the regime's own words, quote,

spk_0 stop the groundless suspicion and speculations, unquote. Seriously, how would it look to respond to

spk_0 a quote unquote research vessel with destroyers? That's why grey zone activities are tricky.

spk_0 It pushes the boundary and can change the status quo if not addressed.

spk_0 We have just talked about what happened and the US response. Before we cover the bigger picture,

spk_0 let's talk about what the Chinese side said about the research mission.

spk_0 This time, the Chinese regime didn't say anything officially about its research vessels in

spk_0 fringing US rights near Alaska. Instead, global times a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party,

spk_0 which often sends out quasi-official messages, accused the United States of wrongdoing.

spk_0 The published article said the US is playing a quote, villain strikes first game.

spk_0 Doing quote, evil deeds in the Arctic and being a rulemaker and a troublemaker.

spk_0 After the US coast card caught out the Chinese vessels in appropriate behavior in July.

spk_0 As usual, the Chinese regime's allegations lacked specifics. And frankly, I'm not so sure

spk_0 how rulemaker and troublemaker labels can coexist on one entity.

spk_0 Chinese media reported a successful and the largest 15th Pola Scientific Research Mission in early

spk_0 September. Chinese media also reported that during the mission China completed the first ever

spk_0 meant deep sea diving under the Arctic ice in August. According to Chinese media reports,

spk_0 this breakthrough will facilitate large-scale underwater sampling, particularly when combined

spk_0 with the use of robots. Okay, that's the regime's reporting on it. Let's move on to the dual use

spk_0 side of the issue. Dual use is a shortened term for the original Chinese phrase,

spk_0 militaries and civilian dual use, also known as military civil fusion. The idea is that

spk_0 civilian sectors such as technology, shipping, energy, research, universities, and private firms

spk_0 should be mobilized to serve military goals. Again, the example of fishing vessels taking

spk_0 parting geopolitical activities in the South China Sea. And how can the research in the Arctic

spk_0 serve military use? Forbes reported that Chinese research vessels are collecting marine data on an

spk_0 unprecedented scale from Australia to Alaska. The magazine said a Chinese regime-backed fleet

spk_0 of 64 civilian vessels has locked hundreds of thousands of hours of operations globally

spk_0 in the past four years, and 80 percent of these vessels have some ties to China's military

spk_0 or geopolitical agenda. How could the research be applied to military purposes?

spk_0 Sea bat mapping can be used for potential submarine navigation and tie submarine warfare planning

spk_0 and locating routes for undersea cables or choke points. At the end of August,

spk_0 Russia and China conducted their first-ever joint submarine patrol in the Pacific. It happened

spk_0 in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. The Arctic was as much of a battle ground as it could be,

spk_0 so to speak, for the United States and the former USSR during the Cold War. Afterwards,

spk_0 Russia maintained a great amount of influence in the region. Since the invasion of Ukraine and the

spk_0 West's sanctions, Russia has been increasingly relying on China for energy projects and other

spk_0 infrastructure development. That's just China's wants because it has had its eyes on the Arctic for

spk_0 decades. Although it doesn't have any territory in the Arctic, China refers to itself as a near-Arctic

spk_0 country. It released its first-ever Arctic policy in 2018 during the first Trump administration.

spk_0 Back then, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rejected that name. He said a country is either Arctic

spk_0 or non-Arctic. All right, now we're going to zoom out. Why does China want the Arctic so badly?

spk_0 That's next. You're listening to China Watch, where you go to source for US

spk_0 China analysis. So follow the show. You and I both know this is a five-star show.

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spk_0 search for China Watch Epic Times. This podcast is a weekly production with new episodes every

spk_0 Monday evening. Support independent journalism by subscribing to the Epic Times.

spk_0 The Arctic is strategically important not just for China, but also for many others as well.

spk_0 Because of the region's value in global shipping and its energy resources,

spk_0 the US Geological Survey estimates that 22% of the world's undiscovered energy resources

spk_0 are located in the Arctic. That includes 13% of undiscovered oil and 30% of undiscovered natural

spk_0 gas. Most of such resources are under the Arctic Ocean. This is of particular interest to China,

spk_0 since it relies on importing energy to meet domestic demand. It imports over 40% of its natural

spk_0 gas and over 70% of its oil. The Center for Strategic and International Studies says that

spk_0 reliance on foreign energy is only going to increase for China. Energy security has been a major

spk_0 national security issue that the Chinese regime is concerned about. And that involves materials

spk_0 and logistics. That is anything that would disrupt the import of those energy resources to China

spk_0 would be crippling to the regime's economy. One of those choke points is the straight of Malaka,

spk_0 situated in a South China Sea between Malaysia and Indonesia. The Malaka delima was first reported

spk_0 in the Chinese media in 2004, citing a speech that then regime leader Hu Jingtao made in 2003.

spk_0 In a speech who mentioned that Malaka's straight being a potential choke point, remember what I

spk_0 said about choke points? About 80% of China's oil imports sail through the straight of Malaka.

spk_0 A blockage there can potentially cause an energy crisis in China if no alternative routes are

spk_0 available. Another important international waterway is the Suez Canal, which is currently

spk_0 plagued by violence. That's where the Arctic comes in. The shipping route in the Arctic region can

spk_0 serve as an alternative to the shipping routes through both the straight of Malaka and the Suez

spk_0 Canal. Due to melting ice, the Arctic shipping seasons longer and more shipping routes are becoming

spk_0 available. Currently, the two major routes are the Norden Sea Route along the Russian coast and the

spk_0 northwest passage along the coasts of Canadian and Alaskan waters. Potentially two more may become

spk_0 available when it's the transpolar sea route crossing the central Arctic, which is essentially a

spk_0 shorter version of the Norden Sea Route. Another is the Arctic Bridge Route, which begins at the most

spk_0 northern points of the Nordic regions including Russia and traverses the southern tip of Greenland

spk_0 into Canada's Hudson Bay. I put the link of the map of polar shipping routes in the show notes.

spk_0 China relies on foreign energy to keep lights on domestically and also global shipping for

spk_0 energy supply and its export-driven economic model. So with energy in mind, China would naturally

spk_0 want another route, which it would control with an ally to have faster shipments of energy coming in.

spk_0 As for imports and exports, the Arctic routes enhance the shipping efficiency by 20-40%.

spk_0 That's simply because of a shorter travel distance point to point, which translates to fewer days

spk_0 per trip and less fuel required. For example, according to the Arctic Institute, a think tank based

spk_0 in Washington, DC, the Norden Sea Route could be 25% more profitable than the Suez Canal route by the

spk_0 year 2100. Therefore, the Arctic region can play a critical role in global trade and resource

spk_0 extraction. That's why China is so obsessed with the region. In 2013, the first Chinese commercial

spk_0 ship traveled from China to the Netherlands veered a route along the Russian coast. It was a one-way

spk_0 journey made by a vessel owned by the state-owned China Cosco shipping. Two years later,

spk_0 the same ship made a round trip between China and Europe along the same route. In 2017, five

spk_0 vessels made that same trip. Then this year, on September 22nd, China announced that the launch of

spk_0 the world's first China-Europe Arctic container express route would begin the following day.

spk_0 According to the announcement, the shipping path takes the Norden Sea Route. It would take 18 days,

spk_0 20 days fewer than the traditional 40-day route. The news also boasted the new container express

spk_0 route as a result of a state-backed program called the Polar Silk Road to support the supply

spk_0 chain of China's high-tech, new energy and e-commerce sectors. Oh my, that sounds like much

spk_0 faster dumping of China's overcapacity to the rest of the world. Speaking of Polar Silk Road,

spk_0 it's the perfect segue to the China-Russia partnership. The so-called near-octored country needs a

spk_0 real Arctic country to expand access and influence in the Arctic. Ah, yes, this is China's no-limits

spk_0 strategic relationship with Russia and how it comes in handy. In 2017, when the Chinese

spk_0 Communist leader Xi Jinping visited Moscow, he proposed the idea of Polar Silk Road as an extension

spk_0 of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also called BRI. After all, the Belt and Road is Xi's signature

spk_0 program. He proposed it shortly after he took over the Chinese Communist Party in late 2012.

spk_0 It was built as a global infrastructure development program. Since its inception in 2013,

spk_0 the program has revealed itself as a geopolitical, if not imperialistic, program,

spk_0 availing the recipient country's natural resources to the Chinese regime and their ports for

spk_0 the oil use. So the value of the Polar Silk Road to the Chinese regime is an obriner.

spk_0 Since the Ukraine War and Western Sentience, Russia has opened up the Arctic to China like

spk_0 never before. That's according to a 2024 article by the Arctic Institute. A total of 75 shipments

spk_0 passed through Russian coastlines in 2023 and over 95% of them either left from China or went to

spk_0 China as a final destination. The think tank also reported that between January 2022 and June 2023,

spk_0 234 Chinese-owned firms registered in the Russian-controlled Arctic, an 87% increase from the

spk_0 preceding two years. And if you need any more convincing of what China intends, after February

spk_0 2022, the month Russia invaded Ukraine, China has started constructing its own dogs in the five

spk_0 most significant ports along Russia's Arctic coastline, along with establishing Chinese railway

spk_0 lines in the area. Rather than pool-turing the Russian port names, I'll put them in the show notes.

spk_0 We have touched upon the Chinese regime's dual-use strategy a few times. To some extent,

spk_0 the commotion over the Chinese research vessels near Alaska is because of this dual-use strategy

spk_0 and the untrustworthiness of the Chinese regime's claims and actions. For some, it's easy to forget

spk_0 that only the barring straight separates the United States and Russia geologically. And in terms

spk_0 of military advantages, the Arctic region is a nice place to hide nuclear submarines. That's due to

spk_0 the ice-natural screening to block electromagnetic waves and satellite surveillance.

spk_0 President Donald Trump had talked about purchasing Greenland in his first term. He mentioned it again

spk_0 this year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's explanation was that the United States was increasingly

spk_0 concerned about the Chinese influence there, and concerned that Denmark wouldn't be strong enough

spk_0 to keep China away. Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.

spk_0 In addition, Trump has been talking about making Canada the 51st state in America.

spk_0 If we look at the map of the Arctic Circle, that makes sense because by doing so, the United States

spk_0 can have total control over the coastlines facing Russia. That is all to say, the age of Arctic

spk_0 exceptionalism is over. That term Arctic exceptionalism was coined by the final leader of the Soviet

spk_0 Union, Mikhail Gorbachev. That basically meant that the Arctic was left as a peaceful zone,

spk_0 or using the name more literally, an exception to the world's geopolitical problems.

spk_0 The concept has persisted since the Cold War, but with an increase in trade and energy

spk_0 demands, it seems like those states are numbered. The Arctic Ocean certainly has the potential to

spk_0 become a focal point of geopolitical tensions, where the United States faces off with the duel

spk_0 of China and Russia. And we all know if a moment like that happens, the dragon will be greening

spk_0 as it's shielded behind the bear. That's it for today. Spread the word about our show,

spk_0 to your friends and family. We need your help to get our name out there. Till next time, I'm Terry Wu.

spk_0 Thanks for listening.

Opening the Alaska Front—Civilian Facades and Strategic Moves

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