Sports
Lessons Learned in 2025! Trey Yesavage & Cam Schlittler ARE STUDS! (10/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
In this episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, hosts Frank Stanfield, Scott White, and Chris Towers discuss key lessons learned from the 2025 season, focusing on standout performances from you...
Lessons Learned in 2025! Trey Yesavage & Cam Schlittler ARE STUDS! (10/7 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
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Interactive Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
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Oh my God!
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And for the tribute to watching!
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T-Club Film!
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WTF!
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Got a fantasy question?
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Email fantasybaseball at CBSi.com.
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Get ready to win your lead.
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Play fantasy because reality!
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Now here's Frank Scott and Chris.
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So what did we learn this season?
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Let's find out.
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Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday October 7th.
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I am Frank Stanfield, join by Scott White and Chris Towers.
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Today on the show we will reveal our biggest lessons learned.
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But first, I want to talk about two young pictures
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who dominated in their lone starts here in the playoffs.
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Chris, I know you're a big fan of the movie.
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A star is born.
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We might have two stars on our hands here.
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Treyas Savage and Cam Schlellatla.
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Let's start with Treyas Savage here.
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Who just mowed down the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS.
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Oh yeah!
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Gotta get that in.
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Five and a third, no hit innings.
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One walk, 11 strikeouts here.
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Four years of Savage had 18 whips on 78 pitches.
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11 on the splitter, five on the slider, two on the fastball.
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45% CSW, only 78 pitches.
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Honestly, this star could have been even better.
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That splitter was just absolutely disgusting.
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We now have a four-star sample, which is still very, very small.
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I realize that.
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But three of the four starts have looked great.
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Treyas Savage started the season.
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He only 22 years old, by the way.
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Started the season in A-ball.
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Pits four different levels and now finds himself destroying the Yankees in the playoffs.
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So this is the type of performance,
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especially if he builds off this and has multiple starts that are very good.
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That can hike up an ADP for next season.
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What do you guys think about Treyas Savage?
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I saw a tweet that was like, it was something like,
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here's a partial list of the teams that Treyas Savage has wins against this year.
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Pensacola, Blue Wahoo's, Hartford Yard Goats,
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New York Yankees in the playoffs.
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Yeah, that's pretty good.
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It's pretty good.
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I would say Treyas Savage is everything that I hyped Jonah Tongue to be.
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And that I hyped Jonah Tongue to be a lot.
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And it's kind of fitting to make that comparison for a couple of reasons.
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One is both of their arm angle is like 63, 64 degrees,
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which is extremely high.
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And it makes an unusual look.
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The difference is Jonah Tongue,
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I'm sorry, Treyas Savage has a,
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at least one killer secondary in that splitter.
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And Jonah Tongue, it's not clear that he does.
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And so that's why we're seeing Treyas Savage carry over his terrific minor league
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strikeout rates to the majors.
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And he actually, even ahead of Tongue,
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Treyas Savage led all upper level minor leagueers in strikeouts,
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per nine innings.
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Both of them were over 14, but his savage was a little higher.
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And like I said, we're seeing it carry over because that splitter is just so filthy,
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particularly coming at it from such a high arm angle.
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So there are going to be control issues.
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We saw it pop up in a second major league start.
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There are going to be build up issues in terms of taking on a bigger workload.
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That's something every, that's a big hurdle.
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Every young pitcher has to clear,
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but we didn't see a savage work particularly deep into games in the minors this year.
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So that's probably the biggest issue for him moving forward,
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evaluating him for for 2026.
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I never tried around fornings per start.
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Yeah, and he was throwing the no header in this playoff game.
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And they still pulled him after five in a third innings.
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So and actually Yankees mounted.
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Probably wasn't that serious of a comeback,
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but they scored a lot of runs off the Blue Jays ball pen once the yes,
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average came out.
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So so those are big hurdles.
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That's part of the reason why relative to the hype,
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his fantasy value may be suppressed,
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but I've been impressed with tray a savage and think.
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However long it takes him to clear that hurdle of providing length.
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It'll be really good.
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Yes, so so far he has thrown a combined.
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117 and a third innings that's across the minors.
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The majors where he made three starts at the end of the regular season.
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And then his loan start here in the playoffs.
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And I guess anything can happen,
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but it looks like the Blue Jays are going to move on and
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help me a couple more starts at least.
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I would I would think there.
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So you know, if you don't have any Yankees on just yet.
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I am.
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Thanks.
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So but I look basically the point I was going to get is if he throws
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around 120 this season, I think we can kind of a barring injury,
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expect like 150 for next year from tray a savage.
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Who would you rather have for 2026 tray a savage or he just got pulled
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from the game, but Jacob, as you're asking, we're all just watching
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before we went live.
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Missy, asking obviously had a ton of hype when he got up to the majors.
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Was ranked a little higher than your savage at the beginning and midpoints
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of this season, but obviously I think faded a bit after he came
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back from that shin injury and you know, for all the.
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The crazy stuff that Missy are asking has, you know, the 104 mile
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hour fastball or whatever.
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I think you savage had a higher strikeout rate than him in the minors.
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Yeah.
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Yeah, significantly.
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It was like.
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41% for your savage to 31% for Missy are asking.
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I think it's easily a savage because I think yes, average is biggest
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issue with working deep into games.
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I mean, Missy are asking shares at five of his final eight appearances
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were less than five innings and he had a 606 ERA in them.
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His control issues are even more pronounced than yes, averages and he did.
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It's sort of like Jonah talking.
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It's not clear.
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Mizorowski has a great secondary option.
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So fastball is great and look, I think there's a lot of upside there,
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but I think I think yes, average is just.
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All he all he really needs to accomplish is just the typical.
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He built up process that every young pitcher has to accomplish,
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which isn't a given, but it's typical.
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Mizorowski has big has has more hurdles to clear than that.
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Ultimately, when it comes to Tonga, Mizorowski,
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your savage, Schlittler.
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I think McLean is probably going to be well ahead of those guys.
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Schlittler might actually be as well.
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Sprote, who are some of the other young guys that got called up at the end of the year?
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I'm sure there were a couple other than forgetting.
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It seemed like we had a ton of huge callups at the end of the season.
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Those are probably can totally call early.
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Yeah, are domestic, but that's a domestic.
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You get lower at least for Alice.
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Luis Marralis.
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Father Chandler.
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Father Chandler.
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I think ultimately, I'm not going to say I'm going to be out on whoever's most expensive
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because I think you do need to have some exposure to these talented young arms.
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But with all of those guys and there's so many of them,
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I mean, we just named them ten of them.
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I probably want like three of them on my roster's next season.
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And so it might be one of the early round guy, the early year guys,
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which I would guess will be burns belongs in that discussion.
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Burns, burns might be my favorite of this group.
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I know it's been a while, but I remember four straight starts, I believe,
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with 10 strikeouts, not a lot of guys at any level of baseball do that.
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My favorite stat here, as far as that goes, Chris,
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is Chase Burns was up for eight, was eight appearances or eight starts.
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Well, I think it was eight, it was eight.
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He paired eight times.
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Four of them double digit strikeouts.
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That is more than Paul schemes, more double digit strikeout games than Paul schemes has had in his entire career.
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Yeah, that's, and also part of that is just burns was among this group,
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the best coming into the season.
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I don't think he had did anything.
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The best prospect coming into the season.
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I don't think he did anything to lose that stature.
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So among that group, if burns isn't the most expensive, great.
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I'll just take Chase Burns a lot.
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But what I'll probably do is mix in one of the early around guys,
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which I think will be a savage burns McLean McLean,
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Missy Rasky, those guys will probably all go top 150, probably not top 100,
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but probably top 150, I would guess for all of them.
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Mike, it close.
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Mike, it close the top 100 mid top 120.
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Yep.
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Take one of them, maybe two, and then get a couple bites at the apple with Connolly early,
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who I think looked really good in Parker, Mesa, and Luis Morales,
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who came on really strong at the end of the season.
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That's probably the wild approach, but a lot of interesting young pitchers heading into 2026.
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I'm still not used to saying 2026.
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That's probably 80 times in the past, like month and a half,
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and I'm still 2025 is next year, right?
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There's no way 2026 is next year.
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I'll get there in the some point in the next two months, I guess.
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Let's quickly just run through what Cam Schlippler did.
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If we travel way back in time to last Thursday in a decisive game three in the wildcard round against the Red Sox,
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Schlippler threw eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts to zero walks.
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He had 18 whiffs on 107 pitches, 11 of those on the fastball, five on the sinker.
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The first pitcher to go eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and zero walks in MLB postseason history.
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That seems impossible.
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There have been so many postseason games, but Cam Schlippler stands alone.
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It was really just the fastball and sinker, man.
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They accounted for 70% of his pitches.
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I still have questions about the secondaries, but if the fastball is this good, like maybe it doesn't matter.
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I don't know, but go for it.
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So Cam Schlippler has cleared the hurdle of pitching deep into games.
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He went eight innings in this playoff start, struck out 12.
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His final regular season start, remember two hits and seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts.
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I'll be honest to not remember that.
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And then he had, let's see, four of his, so counting that seven innings start at the end of the season,
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five of his final eight starts.
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Yeah, six of his last 10 went six plus you.
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Okay, so 90 pitches or more in nine starts total, including the postseason, 89 or more in 11 of 15.
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And he had a strike, more than a strikeout per inning, each of those times he went six or more, more than a strikeout per inning.
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Usually it looks like two or more strikeouts than innings.
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So like he was, Cam Schlippler was actually providing the length you'd expect of a front line, major league pitcher, which is very impressive for somebody who was called up in the middle of the year.
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Like a rookie and not even a rookie for the full season, very impressive.
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He's already cleared that hurdle. And in some ways, you know, I don't want to overthink it.
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Like he's, he is giving you the volume you want. He's dominant with it.
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Don't overthink it. But same as you Frank, I look at the actual breakdown of the pitches.
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And I'm like, okay, it's a good fastball.
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It's uncommon to see a fastball have the highest whiff rate of any of a pitcher's pitches.
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And it's a great whiff rate for a fastball.
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But like you want there to sort of like Spencer Shreider when he had a great fastball.
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He had this slider that had 50% whiff rate. Yeah.
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Right. I think the biggest rate on the slider was like 20 percentage points higher than the fastball as good as the fastball was.
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And so what happens if Cam Schlippler, you know, if he's thrown 97 instead of 98.
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How which is what he was throwing in triple A.
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Okay. That's the, he average 95 miles per hour last year.
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96.6 at triple A before his promotion this year.
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98 at the major level.
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That is also just like, I don't know how much to put on that.
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But that kind of velocity jump is worrisome.
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Even for he's like massive.
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Yeah. He's like 6.6, 6.8 something like that. Yeah. He's like 6.6, 6.8.
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But yeah, he's, he's big. So like, you know, there's I guess something that, but like that kind of gigantic velocity jump in a very short amount of time.
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Maybe he was just holding back. Maybe he was always capable of sitting 98.
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But yeah. I'm a little worried. And I think just in general, you'd like to see one pitch with a whiff rate over 30%.
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That's not to say he can't be good without it.
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But, you know, even the fastball 28% whiff rates really good.
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But that's not like Luis Castillo was at like 33% a couple years ago.
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You know, like that, that's a very, very good mark.
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But it's not necessarily like, tippy, tippy top of the league as well.
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So I think there are a few concerns here with Cam Schletler.
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But on the whole, I think he's got to be in that first year of the, the second year pitchers.
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Or I guess some of them will be right.
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I think he's probably, except for maybe Chase Burns.
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I think Cam Schletters probably earned the right to be drafted tops among them.
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You put him ahead of me.
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I think so.
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I mean, as good as these last two starts were.
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And like there, there is a, there is a flag there.
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A potential red flag there with is the secondary arsenal good enough.
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But that's, I want to stress in this.
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We'll kind of play into one of my lessons learned that we'll get to later.
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Like that's shown to be a deal breaker.
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Because the way the league is trending, pictures tweaking their arsenals, adding pitches, subtracting pitches.
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Very easily.
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And so it, it want to take much for him to come up with one secondary pitch that will, will put less pressure on his fastball to be as good as it's been.
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And, and I would bet on him doing that.
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So I don't.
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I guess I just say when your approaching Cam Schletter for 2026, I would not approach him saying, look how good he was as a rookie.
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Imagine how much better he could share.
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I would, I would say, look how good he was as a rookie.
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Hopefully he'll be 85, 90% of that.
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Alright, some other quick playoff updates here.
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Since we last spoke, the potrace, reds, guardians and red socks were all eliminated in the wild card round.
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As mentioned, the blue tays are currently whooping my yanks to O.
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The Dodgers lead the Phillies to O as well.
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Roki Sasaki picking up saves in each of those wins.
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He's also closed out three different games in the playoffs.
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And he's looked ridiculous out of the bullpen.
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So it will be interesting to see how this influences next season.
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Is this something that Roki Sasaki can carry over into next year as a starter?
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Or is he so good in the playoffs as a reliever that they just use them as their closer next year?
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There was a piece on ESPN.com on Monday, I believe, about how they rebuilt him.
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And goes really in depth in their in their process.
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A really good article.
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You should read it.
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Jeff pass.
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Yeah, they found some mechanical things.
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I don't know how to do it.
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I don't really understand.
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But it was something about the way his pelvis was dipping during his delivery.
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And they got him to stay back a little more.
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And like immediately his next start, his velocity was up like four miles per hour.
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But it doesn't nothing in that article sounded like they don't think he's going to be a starter moving forward.
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Everything sounded like he's going to be a starter.
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Or at least he's going to get that chance.
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I was looking for that.
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That is the main thing I wanted to know is somebody who writes enough fantasy baseball.
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And I didn't see an indication one way or another.
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It gives me a little more hope that since they tied it to a mechanical issue that it's not just,
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okay, he picked up more velocity because he's throwing shorter spurts and so he's airing it out more.
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Like there was an actual mechanical thing they fixed there that improved the velocity.
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And that I think at least opens the door to try him out as a starter.
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But they invested a lot in their bullpen this off season and came away with no closer out of it.
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And like if he, especially since they have a ton of starting picture depth.
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If he just becomes this lockdown ninth inning guy.
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And they were able to salvage his rookie season that way.
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So I can see them saying like that's that's enough of a win for us given given our abundance of pitching riches.
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I'm not ruling that out. I don't know. I'm just I'm just speculating because we don't have any kind of official statement on it.
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So I guess what I saw was this was passing saying even a Sasaki will transition back to starting pitching next year.
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He's a reliever this month. I guess that's the only thing that's really in there.
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So I was trying to interpret what that meant.
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Yeah. I was talking about it when you were in on him.
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Like does he mean even if is an even though.
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Yeah.
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Because even though it was more definitive even if I don't know, but it's possible this could happen.
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So it's snail Yamamoto glass now. Tony M machine.
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I think he's he's earned that right to be in the rotation next year. Right.
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As Godly deserves it.
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Um, Kirchal's retiring. So he's out of the picture.
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Um, and they'll probably go six man a lot too.
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Yeah, I would think it's going to be six man by default. They have the flexibility with Otoni.
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They get that extra.
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The extra pitcher spot on their roster. It's not an extra roster spot, but they get an extra pitcher.
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Um, Gonsoline is probably out until late summer.
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Gavin Stone. Who knows? I don't think you can bet on him.
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Yeah, I think he's I think he's going to be in the rotation.
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Unless like.
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Unless they have more faith in Bobby Miller than they've given any reason to believe.
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Or they bring in one of the big guys. Yeah. I guess.
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I was just going to say, what if they signed Dylan C's or something?
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And they've got prospects, right? Like Jacks Ferris is a decent prospect.
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They've got a couple other guys, right? Yeah, they always do.
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We'll see. I can dodgeers.
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I would agree that it seems like it's leading that way.
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Six man with with both M. A. C. and and Sasaki probably in there to start next season.
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The Mariners Tigers are tied up one to one in that series. Jorge Polanco took Terrick's
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school will deep twice in game two. The brewers are up one zip at the time of recording this.
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Though they're kind of pulling away with game two.
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So it looks like it's going to be a two game lead there for the brewers as well.
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Big thanks to those watching live.
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Make sure to hit that like button and subscribe for more fantasy baseball content all off season long.
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Let's take a break. We'll be back right after this.
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Welcome back in fantasy baseball today quickly run through some news and notes before we get to our lessons learned.
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Jackson trio left game one of the NLDS with right hamstring tightness.
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The same hamstring he heard earlier this season, but was back in the line for game two and hit a three run homer.
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So think he's fine. Lawrence Butler under when surgery Friday to repair a tear in his right putteler tendon.
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Apparently he played through knee issues down the stretch expected to be ready for spring training.
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Wonder how long this season he was dealing with that.
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Perhaps it was both needs to he didn't have surgery in both knees,
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but he had like an injection in the other knee as well.
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So if you're looking for a reason to explain quite a bit this year too.
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Yeah, I think his sprint speed was down, but he still ended up with 2020, I believe.
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If you're looking for a reason to be optimistic about Lawrence Butler at a massively reduced price for 2026,
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that's that's as good a reason as you'll find I'm not sure that's why he can't hit lefties.
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But I'm willing to even if it's just a repeat of 2025 and he doesn't get any better.
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He's not going to be a top 100 pick this time.
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So I think he'll be a decent target in 2026 drafts.
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Lawrence Butler, 21 homers, 22 steals, but that came with a two with 34 batting average this past season.
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Raised president Eric Neanderer said he expects Shane McClennahan to be fully ready for the start of spring training.
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McClennahan made just two rehab starts in the minors this year due to a nerve issue in his left triceps,
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which he eventually had surgery on in August.
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McClennahan is now 28 years old. He has not made a regular season start since August of 2023.
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So I have no idea what to expect.
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In fact, I think you should have zero expectations and just kind of go from there.
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I feel like we're in Walker Bueller territory with Shane McClennahan.
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There's another two Tommy John surgery guy. It was a difficult recovery.
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The start he did make or the two and a third innings he threw at Triple A.
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His fastball velocity was 93 miles per hour. It was down four miles per hour from the last time we saw him.
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I just, this is like if you want to throw in on the in a reserve round pick that maybe that's okay.
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But I okay. I can't just saying Walker Bueller immediately coming back from his Tommy second Tommy John.
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Oh, no, no, no, I'm saying that Walker Bueller right now is I kind of you.
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Shane McClennahan where Walker Bueller was at the start of 2025.
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We're like, hey, maybe you bet on something, but I don't think there's like.
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And I feel like he was outside 250. Yeah, he was outside.
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I'm not trying to be like, yeah, I don't know what the word is.
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I'm not trying to like get you in a gotcha here. Get you in a gotcha.
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Yeah, look, I just he was the 68 starting picture.
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You're drafted this year, Bueller. That that's probably that is cheap enough where it doesn't really matter.
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Like if if you want to say 61st and someone else wants to say 81st, whatever, there's base.
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There's functionally no difference there. Yeah.
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But it's just to say that I think you like Frank said you can't expect anything from him.
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Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow would not commit to Tristan Kossas being the team starting first baseman next season.
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Kossas had left knee surgery in May.
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In fact, it's not even a guarantee that he'll be ready for opening day. So we shall see.
spk_0
I did not have them in my top 21st baseman for next year.
spk_0
And that seems right with this news coming out.
spk_0
I'm hoping there's a change of scenery. Yeah, we'll see Chris.
spk_0
Good news for your Scott White dynasty team.
spk_0
And Reed getmers will enter next season as a starter with the angels still just 26 years old.
spk_0
He pitched well as a reliever this year.
spk_0
396 ERA 130 whip 11k per nine.
spk_0
The underlying numbers actually like them even more.
spk_0
So we'll see if any of that success can translate back into being a starter.
spk_0
Speaking of the angels, their first round pick starting pitcher Tyler Bremner is dealing with elbow soreness.
spk_0
So keep that in mind for a dynasty leagues.
spk_0
Those doing first year player drafts Red Sox Catcher Carlisle and a
spk_0
Vias will undergo arthroscopic surgery this week to repair the meniscus in his left knee.
spk_0
He's expected to be ready for spring training.
spk_0
We had a bunch of Rangers updates first off.
spk_0
They hired Skipschumacher as their new manager.
spk_0
He won NL manager of the year with the Marlins back in 2023.
spk_0
Nathan of all the might need support Ternia surgery.
spk_0
His season actually ended with a rotator cuff strain back in August.
spk_0
Jake Berger is expected to require six to eight weeks to recover from wrist surgery.
spk_0
And Cody Bradford who had internal brace surgery in June is expected to be full participatory during spring training.
spk_0
Seems kind of aggressive to me, but what do I know?
spk_0
I have not been able to diagnose or time these things out very well.
spk_0
So I'm sure the Rangers know more than I do.
spk_0
The Jake Berger one is just I'm working on like my state of the first base position for the newsletter this week.
spk_0
Looking at like previewing the offseason reviewing where we stand.
spk_0
And I read your catcher one by the way.
spk_0
It was really good.
spk_0
I liked it.
spk_0
Oh, thank you.
spk_0
I'm capable of writing one good thing a year.
spk_0
That's the one.
spk_0
No, I just I knew we had drafted Jake Berger way too high this year.
spk_0
He was like 105 and 80 p this year.
spk_0
Hmm.
spk_0
That was bad.
spk_0
Yeah, not good.
spk_0
I was a mistake on us.
spk_0
I was looking through all of our sleepers breakouts and bus articles.
spk_0
That's like articles.
spk_0
That's a podcast.
spk_0
We'll do later this week kind of reviewing all those picks and stuff.
spk_0
I had Jake Berger as a bus then didn't draft him anywhere, but I was kind of scared about it because everybody else was getting excited about Jake Berger.
spk_0
spk_0
That's you know, we're going to talk about some lessons.
spk_0
Here's a lesson.
spk_0
When the guy you're drafting only does 30 good things a year at best.
spk_0
And that is all he's capable of.
spk_0
And he's playing for a team that has depth and wants to win games.
spk_0
That's probably a bad pick and a hundred overall.
spk_0
You guys made that exact argument early in the off season last year.
spk_0
And I was the only one that stuck with it.
spk_0
And I think after you got traded to the Rangers, you guys were like, uh, but he's not really good.
spk_0
I kind of backed off of that as a bus.
spk_0
Right.
spk_0
Well, Chris definitely did.
spk_0
And look, I wasn't.
spk_0
I liked him when he was around.
spk_0
I'll pick one 30 if you got up to pick one.
spk_0
He's just going up.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
I don't think I don't think I ended up drafting Berger anywhere.
spk_0
But I liked it in theory.
spk_0
He only hit 16 home runs.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
You know, he missed a lot of time.
spk_0
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
So that's.
spk_0
And I haven't 27th at first base for next year.
spk_0
So it's not like I'm expecting a bounce back.
spk_0
But it is possible.
spk_0
And yeah, as a late round, you'll like the price for him next year.
spk_0
A lot more than this year.
spk_0
As a late round corner in field or for power, I think he's an OK bat in 2026.
spk_0
But that was just I had forgotten how high the price had gotten on him.
spk_0
And that's one where it's just we usually don't care about like bad base runner, bad defense.
spk_0
Doesn't get on doesn't draw walks doesn't get on base.
spk_0
But like for the Rangers, that matter.
spk_0
And he lost a lot of playing time because of it.
spk_0
Yep.
spk_0
And perhaps the biggest news item of all.
spk_0
Scott White has paid off the cereal a bit.
spk_0
That's right.
spk_0
Oh wait, I got to turn this thing around.
spk_0
When we get here, apple pie toast crunch.
spk_0
So I did want to go with some kind of weird limited edition cereal.
spk_0
And this is always great.
spk_0
This is what we ended up.
spk_0
Is that sarcasm I'm sensing from you?
spk_0
Yes, you know, it was really that good.
spk_0
It they they just sell it year round.
spk_0
But you know what?
spk_0
I will say just made it Scott and you know what?
spk_0
That's not always true.
spk_0
Taco Bell has some bangers that they just take off the menu every four months.
spk_0
It's pretty good so far.
spk_0
It's like cinnamon toast crunch and apple jacks had a baby.
spk_0
And this is what came out.
spk_0
So they have apple jacks and apple jack and not a big.
spk_0
20 years.
spk_0
Yeah, it's unique.
spk_0
It's I'm not going to say it's the best cereal ever had.
spk_0
It's not the worst cereal ever had.
spk_0
It's pretty good.
spk_0
That that means it doesn't actually taste like apples if you're saying that that was that was the whole pitch.
spk_0
The I have the holder.
spk_0
That was the whole like commercial.
spk_0
I can't think of words, but that was that was what they said in every commercial.
spk_0
It doesn't taste like apples and the kids said they liked it anyway.
spk_0
So you know.
spk_0
That was that was the story for Apple checks.
spk_0
All right.
spk_0
Here we are halfway through the podcast.
spk_0
Let's finally talk about lessons learned this season.
spk_0
And we will start with Scott.
spk_0
What do we have here?
spk_0
All right.
spk_0
My first lesson learned is not so much like I made a mistake thing, but Paul AirRate is the missing link to understanding hit her performance.
spk_0
This was a game changer this year.
spk_0
I feel like I don't know if I don't know if stat cast always had it on their page.
spk_0
Or if they just knew it.
spk_0
I think it was new just maybe second half last year.
spk_0
Because I only noticed it this year and it explained so much.
spk_0
All those times that we looked at a hitter's exit velocities.
spk_0
We looked at his expected stats even and we were like, wow.
spk_0
Why is this guy not performing as well as his expected stats say we should?
spk_0
And from reviewing it so many times over the course of the year.
spk_0
The answer was most often the pole air rate wasn't good enough.
spk_0
And conversely, when a guy was consistently over performing his expected stats, it was because his pole air rate was great.
spk_0
Now, there are examples where this doesn't line up completely.
spk_0
So I'm not saying we've totally cracked the nut here as far as evaluating hitter performance goes.
spk_0
But I think this is a huge leap forward.
spk_0
And like I, I knew it was a factor.
spk_0
But before stat cast made this one singular stat pole air rate.
spk_0
The way I had to go figure out if a player was pulling the ball in the air a lot.
spk_0
Was a multi-step process on fan graphs that frankly, you just couldn't look up for every player.
spk_0
Certainly not over the course of the season.
spk_0
I mean, every day when we're coming on this podcast, I'm reviewing 40 plus players every night.
spk_0
And if I have to take this multi-step process to look up pole air rate for any of these players consistent,
spk_0
like it just, there just wasn't enough time to do it.
spk_0
But with this singular stat on a stat cast page, a page I'm visiting every time I look up a player anyway,
spk_0
it's easier to understand and it's a lot more accessible the way they present it.
spk_0
And so for instance, a guy like Ben Rice, who underperformed his expected stat by quite a lot,
spk_0
how did great year, but was one of the biggest underachievers by the expected stats anyway.
spk_0
It's like, okay, well, is he one of these guys who's just going to continually underperformed his expected stats?
spk_0
You look at his pole air rate. It's great.
spk_0
And so I think Ben Rice is, he might be my favorite hitter for next year, frankly,
spk_0
because I feel like for as good as he was, there's so much more on the table because everything looks great for him.
spk_0
Expect that stats pole air rate, the park he's playing in half the time for a left-handed air.
spk_0
It's just a question if he's going to be an everyday player in my mind.
spk_0
So, you know, that's one example, but it was a huge leap forward in terms of me evaluating hitters.
spk_0
And it's simplified the process so much by just having that one singular number to size up how well a player pulls the ball in the air,
spk_0
that it's almost too easy, that my analysis almost becomes, look at his pole air rate.
spk_0
And like that's one of what good am I if all I'm doing is pointing to this number on a player's stack as page,
spk_0
but it's a great number.
spk_0
For anybody listening or watching, if you want to find this stat and other great stack as numbers, go to baseballsavon.com.
spk_0
You could type in a player's name in the search bar in the top right corner.
spk_0
And then you just scroll down to their bad at ball profile and you'll see pulled air percentage.
spk_0
If it's blue, it's not a good pull air percentage if it's red.
spk_0
Obviously that person does that quite a bit.
spk_0
So you can look that up yourself as well. Chris, let's go over to you for a lesson you learned this season.
spk_0
One thing I wanted to do was I feel like I spent a lot of time this season struggling with pitchers who were overperforming or like my own pitching staffs.
spk_0
We talked about, you know, the leagues where I struggled and it was mostly pitching.
spk_0
So I wanted to like dive into, is there something systemic that I'm missing or that I'm doing wrong?
spk_0
And when I looked into it, I didn't really see any real explanation beyond I picked the wrong pitchers in specific tiers.
spk_0
And so my one lesson, my first lesson that I want to talk about is this is annoying.
spk_0
But not everything that happens is a lesson because I wanted to like really look at, hey, is there something about these advanced stats for pitchers that's leading us astray?
spk_0
That's not working anymore. Well, not really no.
spk_0
There were two qualifiers who outperform their fit by one run and 12 who outperform their fit by 0.5 runs this season.
spk_0
I used fit just because that's the easiest one, but the results for XERA looked very similar.
spk_0
Last year there were two and 10. So basically the same 2023 one outperform by one run nine outperform by half a run 2022 to and 13 basically the same.
spk_0
2021 0 and seven, but there were only 30 39 qualifying pitchers last year or that year.
spk_0
I don't really think we can learn anything from 2021, but the point is there was not some systemic failure across the board for the pitchers who overperformed or underperformed.
spk_0
Now that I wanted to say, well, what about the ones who did overperform?
spk_0
Was there something that they shared that could lead to this that we can learn that can know?
spk_0
The two biggest overperformers by fit this year were Gavin Williams and Zach Latel.
spk_0
I don't know if you could find two less similar pitchers in baseball in terms of their approach and their skill sets than Zach Latel and Gavin Williams.
spk_0
There were a few control specialists among that 0.5, uh, ERA guys Brian Wu, Zach Latel, Jacob DeGrom.
spk_0
If you want to count him, he had like a 5.5 percent walk rate this year.
spk_0
Some high strikeout guys, Hunter Brown, Freddie Peralta, extreme groundballers, extreme flyballers, like I just don't think there's any there there in that.
spk_0
And so that's the one thing that like my pitching staff were so bad this year that there's a part of me that's like, I got to rethink this again.
spk_0
And maybe we'll get to a later point in the off season, but that's the first thing I want to take is maybe it's just don't over learn a lesson or don't try to overperform.
spk_0
Never fit. Don't look at the results and say there has to be something there because I'm not I'm not trying to give myself excuses.
spk_0
I had a bad year in terms of the pitchers I pitched and some of that will come in my later lessons, but I did want to start there of just the process still seems fine.
spk_0
There is not something broken about the ways we evaluate pitchers there will be stretches every year where some rent like a 90th percentile outcome like an outcome where a guy beat 90% of their projections.
spk_0
You should expect that to happen roughly 10% of the time.
spk_0
And when there are 150 pitchers pitching as starting pitchers the majors at any given time.
spk_0
Do the math you would expect 15 of them to be in a 90th percentile outcome at any given time.
spk_0
It's.
spk_0
Again, I don't want it to sound like I'm making excuses or giving myself room to slither out of.
spk_0
You know anything, but it's just no.
spk_0
I.
spk_0
I wanted to look for a lesson and I'm trying to remind myself that well just because you got something wrong or just because something went wrong or just because something that doesn't necessarily mean there's a lesson to draw from that.
spk_0
And I don't want to I don't want to learn the wrong lesson at this.
spk_0
Yeah, now of course.
spk_0
And I think that's.
spk_0
You don't want to over like an over correction is better is worse.
spk_0
An over correction is worse than an under correction.
spk_0
If particularly if it's something that you already are very capable at.
spk_0
spk_0
So I'm with you there.
spk_0
What you're mostly speaking to is the way you evaluate starting pitchers.
spk_0
And just intuitively I without having looked into the numbers you've looked at, I would agree that.
spk_0
The process is good there.
spk_0
I wonder if you're approached to drafting pitchers like did you.
spk_0
Sure.
spk_0
Much into that.
spk_0
And I think that's wrong.
spk_0
Yeah, that might be the next time I have to look into.
spk_0
Yeah, but that's that is a separate variable.
spk_0
Sure.
spk_0
Like you may have the right evaluations and just not structure.
spk_0
You're pitching staff in a way that can withstand some of the the variance that tends to happen at that position, especially.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
And you know, part of that is getting into my second lesson, which we can talk a little bit more about late.
spk_0
But like I was really heavy on George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez this year before their injuries.
spk_0
I had zero gear crochet zero Jacob de Graham and zero who is the other one.
spk_0
Oh, Jordan Yamamoto had zero of them just injury workload concerns.
spk_0
And that's kind of the whole ball game, right?
spk_0
Like if if you bet on aces and you didn't have any exposure to Graham crochet and Yamamoto.
spk_0
And I don't think I draft the schemes either.
spk_0
It's like, yeah, that's kind of the whole ball game right there.
spk_0
That's those were like four of the, I don't know, seven best pitchers in baseball that I just didn't have any exposure to.
spk_0
Chris, I don't know if you realize this, but you just had a Marlins 40 and slip.
spk_0
You said Jordan Yamamoto.
spk_0
Wow.
spk_0
Instead of Yoshi, no, but Yamamoto.
spk_0
I was like, wait, who Jordan Yamamoto?
spk_0
spk_0
I got a pitch for the Marlins like, there's about three people listening who know great minor league numbers.
spk_0
Really, really good minor league numbers for that guy.
spk_0
I do want to keep this discussion going on pitching.
spk_0
Let's take a quick break.
spk_0
When we return, one of my lessons here is that figuring out pitching is hard or maybe I just didn't do it right this past season.
spk_0
So let's take a little bit more of a look into that right after this.
spk_0
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
spk_0
So we left off talking about pitching and trying to figure out what lessons we can take from that this season.
spk_0
And I feel like all of us are, we all kind of had a similar mindset.
spk_0
I think I don't want to speak for everybody, but of waiting on pitching a little bit more coming into this season.
spk_0
And I thought that I could pull that off because there were guys in rounds four through six that I would be okay with as my SP1,
spk_0
SP2 and just kind of loading up on a bunch of those names.
spk_0
And pitching was a problem for me just across the board this year.
spk_0
I waited on pitching a lot. I wound up with a lot of framber Valdez or Dylan Seas as my ace on many teams.
spk_0
In hindsight, like Valdez feels better as an SP2 I think in fantasy.
spk_0
I think we can kind of make that determination at this point.
spk_0
Chris, you're spot on with Seas.
spk_0
It's, you know, fade in when you have to pay up for him, target him when he's coming off a bad season.
spk_0
I also, and don't want to make excuses.
spk_0
I had bad luck with injuries. I had Corbin Burns, Cole Reagan, Spencer Schwellenbach and Justin Steele on multiple teams.
spk_0
All those guys missed extended time this season.
spk_0
And I, my ratios were bad in a lot of leagues.
spk_0
I had two different roado leagues where I was first in wins and strikeouts and towards the bottom in ERA and WIT.
spk_0
So I'm trying to figure out, you know, was it something that I did?
spk_0
And I think in previous years, I would, I typically get an SP in rounds two or three.
spk_0
As my SP won and then maybe dive back in and, you know, rounds four, five or six as my SP two.
spk_0
And I don't think that that's like a foolproof process per se.
spk_0
But I think me waiting a little bit more on pitching obviously affected this a lot.
spk_0
I also think that I need to be more open to drafting pitchers who I have, quote unquote, workload or injury concerns about.
spk_0
Because I look back at my lessons learned last season.
spk_0
The rundown for this podcast last year.
spk_0
And that was one of my lessons is don't be scared of pitchers who have injury concerns or workload limits.
spk_0
And look at the pictures that worked out this year.
spk_0
Crochet, Brian Wu, you know, we Yamamoto, Max Fried, DeGrom, sale hunter green.
spk_0
Well, I don't think hunter green worked well.
spk_0
They were both great on a per any basis.
spk_0
They were well.
spk_0
The other name was great.
spk_0
The other name was a machine were definitely great.
spk_0
But like, no, it was great on a per any basis, but he threw what 55 ending something like that.
spk_0
Spencer Schwellenbach that that didn't work out.
spk_0
Michael King coming off his one high inning season.
spk_0
Like, ultimately, unfortunately, the answer to a lot of these questions is just draft the best players that just draft the guys who have good seasons.
spk_0
And like, well, that's what I think Frank is saying.
spk_0
I mean, because yes, some of the some of the ones who we were worried about their workload coming in still fell short in terms of workload.
spk_0
But Frank is saying many did not.
spk_0
And meanwhile, guys that we thought were safe for workload.
spk_0
Zach Wheeler, the major curve is mine.
spk_0
George Kirby, sure.
spk_0
Logan Gilbert.
spk_0
Yeah, Logan.
spk_0
If you drafted early enough, Gary Cole, if you drafted Corbin Burns, who was like the safest ace.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
So in Gilbert, it's more of the beginnings guy coming into this year.
spk_0
It's not something we can predict very well, which we're not the first to say.
spk_0
I mean, I've referenced Nick Pollock's approach to pitching drafting pitching and fantasy, which is just ignore that entirely and totally focus on how capable the picture is just how dominant he is.
spk_0
I don't think I'd go that far.
spk_0
But I have particularly in the last couple of years, I have trended more toward that side of things.
spk_0
I know I was the highest on Blake's now coming in.
spk_0
Okay, Blake's now still ended up not throwing a lot of innings, but you know, I was the highest on crochet.
spk_0
I think of the three of us coming into for the same reason.
spk_0
And it's just not something I'm going to stress about as much.
spk_0
Also approach I took this year with Rodo League specifically, because that seemed to be mainly what you're referencing.
spk_0
Frank draft for whip above anything else.
spk_0
But I think about all those guys above anything else.
spk_0
Think about a lot of those guys though, right? Like Bryce Miller, Bailey Oberg, Imanaga.
spk_0
I guess Imanaga's whip was still good, but those those three particular were kind of a because I I wrote about those three that trio together a lot of times because they all had this one major risk factor in terms of serving up home runs.
spk_0
And so they might be good at whip, but there's a good chance they'd be worse than ERA than you were drafting them to be and in the case of two, especially, but to some degree, all three, Imanaga's the R.A.
spk_0
And close to four.
spk_0
And Imanaga still ended up being great at whip. The other two, I think we're pretty bad.
spk_0
We're bad at every general. And then there were injuries with all three of them that make it hard to know.
spk_0
I guess what I'm saying is, yes, anything you do.
spk_0
There are going to be instances of it going wrong. I mean, it's pitching, of course. It's it's extremely volatile.
spk_0
But if you're consistently drafting for whip, you probably don't have to worry about ERA either.
spk_0
And you probably don't have to stress about strikeouts so much because that's part of the reason why they end up with a low whip.
spk_0
And like you should pay attention to all of these things. I'm not saying just focus on one category.
spk_0
But if you're drafting for whip, you're less likely to have these unexpected ratio problems that are harder to fix in a road olig.
spk_0
The other thing I wanted to say relevant to your lesson learned is that I don't think we all three took the same approach to pitching.
spk_0
I know for instance, Chris was more about drafting a really high end ace.
spk_0
I don't remember where you were, Frank, but I was more about like really hitting the second and third tier heavily and getting a lot of those guys.
spk_0
So I would say for the most part worked out, it burns being the big example.
spk_0
And I had a lot of carbon burns unfortunately.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
A lot of scoop old. That would have gone great.
spk_0
So that's why I don't know like you guys were saying I don't want to lean back too far the other way and say,
spk_0
Oh, I have to use my first round pick on a pitcher and every season's player pool and ADP is different.
spk_0
You know, I mean, if things play out the way we think and there's this huge tier from SP 4 to 15 and you know,
spk_0
you would have to use a second round pick on Yamamoto who's the SP 4 versus I don't know getting Chris sale or let's say Hunter Green in round 4 or something like that.
spk_0
It's like, OK, you can wait if you think they're in a similar tier.
spk_0
So we'll see how ADP shakes out. I just think I need to be personally more cognizant of maybe getting what I consider to be an elite pitcher earlier on in drafts,
spk_0
whenever that might be and ADP might determine that.
spk_0
Can I give my second lesson just because it is, it will build off of this point.
spk_0
I thought you already did because no, personally, I referenced it.
spk_0
I need to do a better job of diversifying, especially on pitching because what I noticed is a lot of the teams that went wrong had gallon and carbon burns or had George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez does were more the early early drafts where he didn't know they were hurt yet.
spk_0
But what I realized and this is less relevant for people who are on the draft one or two teams, but you know, I'm playing 11 leagues.
spk_0
Maybe I shouldn't have one guy or a handful of guys in six of those leagues, you know, like maybe that's just.
spk_0
It introduces a lot of downside risk. It introduces some upside, right?
spk_0
Like if if carbon burns had stayed healthy and had a great season, things would look a lot different for me, but it is just to say that if you're playing in a bunch of different leagues and just talking about it as an analyst,
spk_0
there should be less certainty at the beginning of the season about outcomes because every player has a wide range of outcomes.
spk_0
Some players, Paul Skins range of outcomes seems pretty slim at this point, but it's still, I don't know if he finishes with a two ERA next year or three ERA next year, would either outcome really surprise you that much.
spk_0
I guess I'd be a little surprised if Paul Skins had three ERA, but you know what I mean.
spk_0
Well, there's, they're with just because he's a pitcher. There's downside risk that he suffers a horrible injury.
spk_0
Well, sure, but I'm trying to just avoid that because ultimately to the injury discussion, the way I've always tried to think about it and maybe I've failed a little bit is every pitcher has like a 35% chance of suffering a serious injury.
spk_0
And maybe Jacob DeGrom has a 60% chance of suffering a serious injury and that is not nothing, but it's also nobody safe, you know.
spk_0
Just so we're not getting on this tangent, I was only saying that in reference to the lesson you learned, like if you drop the Paul Skins as your first rounder in every league and that got hurt.
spk_0
That's a bad decision.
spk_0
Yeah, that's just that's a bad, that's bad ass. I mean, this is a, I don't, I have like a mutual fund, I think. I don't know. I have a 401k. I have no idea what's going on with the stock market.
spk_0
But like it is a generally, it is a bad idea to take 100% of your investment income and just throw it on one stock and say that one's going to be great.
spk_0
That's not, that's generally not a smart way to manage your money. It's the same in fantasy.
spk_0
I think the way you should look at it, if you play in a lot of fantasy baseball leagues, diversifying early round picks and pitchers, just because with early round picks, first and second round picks, they're all typically really good.
spk_0
Yeah, the only way that big difference, it can go wrong is if there's an injury or something like that or just someone flat out bus and you know, you don't want to have that person on your team when things go wrong.
spk_0
And pitchers just because the volatility, right? So look, the mid to late rounds, if there's a picture that you have conviction about, I think it's okay to do that because obviously like you can miss and the
spk_0
kind of cover up them, but you're probably dropping them anyway. Top five or six round pitchers, like, yeah, you probably just want to diversify that as much as possible.
spk_0
Okay, so my second lesson learned here kind of prevents me from I think having too many duplicates, not that it's the primary thing, but except obvious value, obvious value, except obvious value, even if you don't like the player.
spk_0
And this is kind of a point that I've been harping on throughout my whole career, but I feel like I've never quite put it in these terms.
spk_0
And also I feel like in more recent years, I kind of maybe got a little too confident in my abilities to assess players.
spk_0
And so I didn't take this so much to heart. I became a little bit too much about getting my guys, even if the price started to inflate on them because I have a lot of influence and because the reason I like those guys, a lot of people, you know, we talked before about just how sharp all the fantasy pros have gotten.
spk_0
And it's really hard to get an edge when you're drafting like an edge in terms of I can evaluate this guy better than you can because everybody's looking at the same numbers.
spk_0
Nobody's method of evaluating is really that much more sophisticated than anybody else's. And so it's hard to get an edge that way if you're just trying to outsmart people, it's hard to get an edge.
spk_0
But I had I took the and I talked about it a little in the preseason. I took this approach a couple times. One example would be our podcast listeners league.
spk_0
You know, I talked all off season about how Jacob DeGrom was the bus. I felt most confident in and I wasn't going to have any shares of him, but he fell like four rounds later than he should have gone gone. And I ended up taking him and he had a great year.
spk_0
That is the sort of obvious value I'm talking about. If you're not going to get an edge by outsmarting people with your analytical ability, one way you can get an edge is just to take the obvious value when everybody else is so smart that they think there's this guy.
spk_0
I know better than to take this guy and he ends up falling multiple rounds. Just take them because the truth is, you know, we can look at.
spk_0
We can all point to red flags that certain players had we talked at the top of the show about one camp Schlippler has.
spk_0
But the most likely scenario for any player is that he's going to be exactly who he showed he was. That is the most likely scenario for any player.
spk_0
And yeah, maybe that red flag will come to pass, but maybe it turns out to be a false flag. This seems to be the case more often he was playing through injury.
spk_0
He just needed to develop this extra pitch like players and teams know what's like players know what's wrong with them or their team knows what's wrong with the most of the time.
spk_0
And they there are a lot of stuff is happening behind the scenes that we don't know about.
spk_0
And they'll probably just end up doing what they want. They won't happen yet.
spk_0
It won't always happen. There are busts of course. But if everybody's busts are the same busts that turns into a value play.
spk_0
And you just need to accept that value because that is a potential edge.
spk_0
And at a time when it's really hard to get an edge in drafts embrace uncertainty.
spk_0
I think it's another way to put that just don't be so certain in your valuation of a player.
spk_0
That you can't see. Like you should be kind of to a certain extent like player agnostic.
spk_0
That's obviously not to say that you shouldn't analyze players, but like projection systems are really good.
spk_0
The wisdom of the crowds is really smart. If there's a guy who's fallen 25 picks past ADP.
spk_0
Yeah, that's probably just a good pick.
spk_0
Like there's there ADP is probably there for a reason.
spk_0
There was one example where it worked out for me as well. Same exact thing.
spk_0
Chris sale. I had as a bus this season. He was going in round two of 15 team leagues.
spk_0
And the great fantasy baseball invitational draft that we did.
spk_0
I got him at the end of round four in a 15 team league.
spk_0
Like I didn't want him, but he was the most obvious pick to take at that point.
spk_0
And I said, all right. Well, let's hope I'm wrong. Chris sale and when he pitched,
spk_0
he was still really good this season. Next up for me, I have be careful with trading.
spk_0
And this one's interesting because I feel like trading doesn't happen as often in fantasy leagues.
spk_0
I've actually found myself trading more the past couple of years.
spk_0
I don't know why it's playing out that way, but there's no way around this.
spk_0
I made some really bad trades this season. Now this could be a hindsight as 2020 thing.
spk_0
We didn't know her although Pradomo was going to turn out to be a top 20 player in fantasy baseball.
spk_0
But there's an example. I traded her all the Pradomo back on April 28th in Towers for Jonathan Aranda.
spk_0
I picked up Pradomo. I was using him at utility at the time.
spk_0
And I needed a cornering filter. I liked Jonathan Aranda a lot.
spk_0
I thought, you know, he was a sleeper slash breakout type this year.
spk_0
And at the time, I was like, oh, Pradomo's not going to keep this up.
spk_0
Again, it's, you know, nobody knew that Pradomo was going to keep that up even the person acquiring him.
spk_0
Another one here in NL only labor.
spk_0
I lost Hyrule of Shradda before the season.
spk_0
And so I kind of panic. There's nothing on waivers in an NL only league.
spk_0
I wound up trading Michael Bush and Jason Adam for Nick Gonzalez and Blake Trident.
spk_0
That was a terrible trade. Just did not work out.
spk_0
Nick Gonzalez actually got hurt on opening day and missed two months.
spk_0
So that was another terrible part of that.
spk_0
But Michael Bush went on to have a huge season, which was even more impactful in NL only league.
spk_0
So I'm trying to figure out like, is there something to take away from this or did I just get two trades wrong?
spk_0
You know, because kind of like you said earlier, Chris, like, I don't want to try to find a lesson where there's not a lesson there to be found.
spk_0
But sometimes I find myself like the old adage in fantasy is sometimes the best trades you make are the ones that you don't.
spk_0
Right.
spk_0
I would say your Prado Mo trade very early in the season giving up Prado Mo for Ronda.
spk_0
I mean, Prado Mo to all of us seemed like a big over over achiever.
spk_0
spk_0
Ronda.
spk_0
Yeah, he was having a great year.
spk_0
The only reason it didn't end up being a great year is because he got hurt.
spk_0
But it wouldn't have been as good as years.
spk_0
Prado Mo ended up having, I think, is fair to say.
spk_0
And so yes, the result was bad.
spk_0
I don't think the process was bad there.
spk_0
So I want to beat your self.
spk_0
It could have been, it could have been Michael Bush.
spk_0
You know, like to name or Yandhi DS to name just another like kind of lower end starting first basement or guys who are viewed as lower end starting first baseman.
spk_0
The second trades you're talking about, what were the terms again?
spk_0
So that was an Anna only league.
spk_0
I lost Tyro Astrada.
spk_0
He was my starting second baseman before the season.
spk_0
So he got her in spring training.
spk_0
And so I traded, I had corner infield debt.
spk_0
I traded Michael Bush, basically Michael Bush for Nick Gonzalez.
spk_0
That was like the trade like I remember you kind of float most of the time when you make a trade you float a toss before.
spk_0
And I was like Frank, that's a bad trade.
spk_0
Don't do that.
spk_0
And so I don't I don't know that it was wrong to make a trade.
spk_0
I just think the.
spk_0
It was a panic trade.
spk_0
It was like acting out of desperation, basically.
spk_0
spk_0
And I think maybe the lesson there.
spk_0
There's no such thing as depth in an Anna only league.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
Like trading. Oh, I've got I've got depth.
spk_0
Well, no, you don't.
spk_0
Yeah, I think I traded Michael Bush because I had Josh Bell and wait for it.
spk_0
Jamer Candle.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
Didn't really have as much depth as I thought.
spk_0
So I would just say be careful with trading.
spk_0
Like trading is fun.
spk_0
It's even more fun and dynasty and keeper leagues and stuff like that.
spk_0
But just be careful.
spk_0
Just don't make a trade for the sake of making a trade.
spk_0
All right.
spk_0
All right.
spk_0
Chris for another lesson learned here.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
My last one.
spk_0
I think overlaps with one that you haven't mentioned yet.
spk_0
So we can just go ahead and talk about both if you want to.
spk_0
But mine is just.
spk_0
Be more open minded about the unexpected.
spk_0
And the examples I would choose.
spk_0
I think Geraldo Prado almost a great one where.
spk_0
I'm fascinated to see where his price ends up this off season because.
spk_0
I think people are going to be way out on him in a way that they shouldn't be.
spk_0
But Josh Nailer and Wonsato's stolen bases totally unexpected.
spk_0
spk_0
It happened.
spk_0
All the catcher breakouts and.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
The ongoing peak or strong discourse.
spk_0
I'm going to see like the deeper discussion for because we're talking about sleepers breakouts and bus time on Thursday.
spk_0
But obviously you can mention it here.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
Just.
spk_0
Unexpected there are.
spk_0
How someone helped me do them a 740 something players on a major league baseball roster at any given time something like that.
spk_0
A lot of weird things are going to happen there are 14 some the 5,000 major league baseball games across the course of a full season like.
spk_0
Weird things are going to happen constantly when you're talking about individual players.
spk_0
You should never expect weird things to happen for like you should never project.
spk_0
Weird things to happen for any given player.
spk_0
But for the player pull as a whole you should be open to the possibility that some weird stuff is going to happen across the course of the season.
spk_0
God didn't someone bad throw no hitter this year.
spk_0
There is no no hitters this season.
spk_0
No, no hitters this year.
spk_0
Okay, that was right.
spk_0
But like that happens all the time.
spk_0
Yeah.
spk_0
Some scrub has a great month and it's always like how did this happen it's like weird things happen.
spk_0
That's baseball season.
spk_0
And yeah, so that that's I think for me I should be more open minded and less willing to just write off the potential that these unexpected things can continue.
spk_0
I think her all the predominance a good example of that.
spk_0
I also think we should acknowledge that just because something happens for four months.
spk_0
Peacrom, Sean looking like the best player in baseball doesn't necessarily mean that that will hold forever.
spk_0
And that our analysis does still matter.
spk_0
And so obviously look if there was one weird one weird trick to solving fantasy baseball.
spk_0
This job would be a lot easier and this podcast would be a lot less popular.
spk_0
Probably the game would hold in on itself because nobody would be interested in it.
spk_0
Exactly.
spk_0
So that like there we're never going to solve this.
spk_0
But I think being a little more open minded to the weird things that are happening at least in the short term probably wouldn't be a bad thing.
spk_0
Even if I think that's probably my biggest limitation as a fantasy player is that I stick to my I think it's a strength as an analyst but as a player.
spk_0
This guy's having a bad month.
spk_0
Yeah, but he's good.
spk_0
And it's like, yeah, but sometimes that that bad month becomes three bad months and all of a sudden it doesn't matter what he does three months later.
spk_0
And I think the best application for this isn't playing the waiver wire because your investment is.
spk_0
You know, it gets a little different in in fab leagues, I suppose, but your investment in a pickup is so minimal that it's like.
spk_0
Why not let's see where it goes and you know a lot of times those players end up being instrumental like it's too early that at the point when the point comes where you have to pick them up.
spk_0
It's too early to know if it's legitimate.
spk_0
I mean, obviously we had probably a thousand of this guy.
spk_0
That's why he wasn't drafted, but.
spk_0
But you know that there are probably a couple dozen at least impactful players that emerge off the waiver wire every year.
spk_0
And so you just kind of have to when you see something when you see a player ascending to new heights, you kind of just take the leap and figure out if it's legitimate later.
spk_0
And you know, the shallower of the league the more likely it is you can do that, but it is.
spk_0
It is critical to putting together a winning team for sure.
spk_0
I've seen Ben Gratch for the stealing signals newsletter say this a few times for fantasy football, but I think it's relevant across is strong opinions weekly held.
spk_0
And I think that's a good way to view it, especially with those waiver wire guys where like.
spk_0
Coming into the season, I didn't think her older Prado almost very good.
spk_0
Standing by that position and passing up on him on waivers was a disastrous mistake in in any league.
spk_0
So yeah, you do need to be a little more open minded.
spk_0
Then I am sometimes.
spk_0
All right, Scott, bring us home with your finalist.
spk_0
Yeah, this is kind of related actually regression doesn't follow a schedule.
spk_0
And it's not the first time I've had to learn this lesson and.
spk_0
I hate that I have to learn it again because I'm sure I even referenced it at points this season specifically.
spk_0
For that, that big PC a guy, P Crow Armstrong, Chris already talked about it looked like an MVP candidate for the first four months was on like a 4040 pay still end up having a 30 30 season because four months is long time.
spk_0
But the final two months were a disaster 180 batting average 533 OPS.
spk_0
And it's not to say that that's who P Crow Armstrong is either just that there was a lot of reason to believe he was playing over his head for four months and it eventually came home to roost.
spk_0
It happened to be after four months this time it could have been after a month and a half it could have been after two months it could have happened.
spk_0
Four four months and then he was amazing for the final two.
spk_0
It could have been April, May August September and then we don't even really know to say yeah, yeah, yeah.
spk_0
That's kind of what I was saying.
spk_0
He's the most prominent example, but he's not the only one say Don Rafael, who actually has a very, very remarkably similar profile their seasons having to play out the same way where they were.
spk_0
Great in the first half terrible in the second half and both of them have major plate discipline issues and then it you know look at the opposite Brian Reynolds.
spk_0
Brent and Doyle Michael Harris, they were Chris, you know, was Christian Walker ended up with 27 homers and 88 RBI this year I do because I mentioned him in my things you missed fantasy football started article.
spk_0
Yeah, so he fits that mold to of regression happening in a positive direction in the second half like after after half a season where they look like they were totally useless but it didn't make a lot of sense and you know the regression came.
spk_0
It you don't know when it's going to happen often it happens early enough that we don't even it doesn't even affect their final stat line.
spk_0
But sometimes it doesn't and so you know.
spk_0
Kind of kind of to contrast the point you are making Chris where if the if the fundamentals for a known quantity haven't changed like the underlying characteristics haven't changed in a meaningful way then they're probably going to get back to being that player.
spk_0
Yeah, you can bank on them getting back to being that player you just can't bank on when we've seen players fake it for an entire season before but that means you fade them the next season up to a degree.
spk_0
A good example of this in action is like this one stands out to be Mitchell Parker remember he had a one thirty nine year a through the first five starts of the season there was nothing real about he had 20 strikeouts to 11 walks his first 32 innings and he kept it off with an eight innings shut out against the or.
spk_0
So it's at that time seemed like a big deal and it's like well you got to just we always say this you got to just ride it until it falls apart the problem is his next start he gives up six runs and five innings and it's like well it's just one star he's still at 265 year next star five runs four runs four runs three it's like it's one of those things where you can also.
spk_0
So if you if you stick too close to those guys the regression already came and you screwed up and you on did all the good because you probably didn't have Mitchell Parker in your lineup for most of the first five starts anyway so it's like that's always talking to go or this year there's there were reasons to buy into what go was doing but part of it is just the high hand isn't that real yeah I mean development is real.
spk_0
And so you know sometimes in McKenzie's course case like I regret bringing them up because it looked like legitimate development in his case it wasn't just a high hand play but I guess the reason why I'm saying this is a lesson learned for me this year even though I kind of knew it already is because I regret kind of backing down on crow arm strong and just saying yeah I guess he's a first round caliber player I held out for two and a half months.
spk_0
And you have to understand the pressure I was under for those two and a half months.
spk_0
My stubbornness paid off.
spk_0
Yeah, yeah people did not like to hear what I had to say about peak crow arm strong and I wish I could have just dug my heels in I should have obviously but it gets to a point where you worry people aren't taking you seriously anymore and to get back to my first round.
spk_0
First lesson learned or whichever lesson learned it was I don't actually know the future so maybe there's just something here I'm missing two and a half that months.
spk_0
I guess it's long enough that I should just go with it but it wasn't I should have waited for it's harder remember in the moment that two and a half months is really not very long and baseball.
spk_0
That was the 60 game season so think about it like that when we were drafting exact police sack as a fifth or six round pick the following year and Ken Tamayita and all that fun stuff.
spk_0
All right we're going to wrap there for Scott Chris. I am Frank thinks is always for tuning into fantasy baseball today please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on apple or Spotify we will be back again Wednesday night slash Thursday morning.
spk_0
Bye bye.
spk_0
Her amount podcasts.