Eastern Conference Over/Unders 2025-26

Interactive Transcript

Speaker A Time now to discuss the Eastern Conference over under Danny and let's change things up a little bit. I realized this when I looked at the timestamps for the west that we talked about. The first team, Dallas, for like 11 minutes now. They are a very interesting team, but I don't think we went as long on any of the other teams also. We're just kind of getting our footing. But it's nice to just start at the bottom of the Alphabet and make sure that the Washington Wizards get some attention for the first and only time all season. Let's begin with their over unders.

Speaker B Over under Last year the Washington Wizards finished 18 and 64 with the differential of a 14 win team. You can see some stuff on the tails of these sorts of things, of course, and the over under this year is set at 21.5.

Speaker A Are they better or worse than last year in your review?

Speaker B I. I think they're worse. I mean John in his great piece at the Athletic talked about how the three most effective players for the Wizards last year Rel, you know, like in the minutes they played were Valen Shunas, Poole and Malcolm Brogdon and all of them are gone. That doesn't help. They do have these vets. Like, I mean it's very possible that CJ McCollum is better than some of those guys were last year. It's possible, of course, that Chris Middleton is not Marcus Smart isn't even on this team. He already got bought out and is a Laker. But so, so that kind of thing on the talent in, talent out. I think it probably, I think they are probably a little bit worse though. You can make an argument that's close. I do think though, remember this is a team that not only had started the season with four rookies, they actually played those guys meaningful minutes. Sar and Bub Carrington most notably, though of course Keyshawn George had a big role too. And generally speaking, the biggest jump that you see from players is year one to year two. Because the idea is basically you and I talk about this in most improved Player that there are a lot of adjustments that you need to make to get into the NBA. Whether you come through the college system like Bub did or you come through internationally like Alex Sar did. And so year one isn't representative. Guys just generally are a lot better. So the internal improvement, just the passage of time, I think that helps them pretty significantly. But in terms of like are they better if if yes, not by much if no, possibly, yeah.

Speaker A I mean Brogdon didn't play at all for them. Last year. Valentunas was moved before the deadline and he was out there when they were so miserable. Alex Sar really weighed down by his first half, which was just some of the worst shooting that we've ever seen from a big man in NBA anals. Now they do have some injuries. Sar is dealing with a calf issue. Koub Ali had thumb surgery. Unclear if he'll be ready to start the season, but. And they have these rookies in here. But I think ultimately, and I said this for the jets, I mean, 21 and a half is, is pretty low. I'm actually very surprised by the way though that the whiz over under is so much higher than the Jazz. I'm not sure that is exactly. I mean, the Jazz have Larry Markin and Walker Kessler way better than anybody on the Washington Wizards. And I think the Jazz have some young guys who are further along maybe in their development. But in any event, they have so many guys on this team now. I mean, let's just. I went through this with PRA about a month and a half ago, but here's your depth chart. Sharif Cooper, probably gonna start at point guard. Oh, wait, sorry, no, that was only a face. Bailey made. The team got made it to six and Omar Cooper was still his agent. He, he is still somehow on a two way. That was definitely Michael Winger guy I have a lot of respect for. But also he came from the Clippers. Clippers don't exactly have the greatest reputation for keeping it between the four corners of what you're supposed to be doing. So there pretty clearly was some sort of a promise made to Omar Cooper. And also I wouldn't say that Omar Cooper trying to get Ace Bailey to Washington so that his son could get signed. That's probably not great. Ageing man. That's the reason he's not an agent anymore. None of that looks very good. But anyway, so here are your guards. Carrington, McCollum, A.J. johnson, Trey Johnson. So these are all guys that I, you know, there are other guys here, but these are just players that I had. Either due to their salary or their draft selection. The team have some equity with the team. So those are your guards. Small forward Corey Kisper, Chris Middleton, Justin Champagne actually was pretty decent for them last year. I think he's going to get a look. Will Riley was drafted number 21 this year. And then power forward, I guess you could say, like Keyshawn George and Cam Whitmore. They don't have any like perfect power forwards like Marvin Bagley is Probably the closest thing. And then they got Sar and Tristan Vuic. Their big men are atrocious, but they have enough guys here where, you know, I think there's going to be a feeling they need to get a little bit of improvement. Even though they do have this top eight protected picks, they won't be winning too many games, nor should they. I think there are enough guys here where there'll at least be some competition. Like, you're not going to like. Sar is going to be gifted minutes no matter how he plays. But, you know, I think it at the other positions, like, guys, you have to at least be decent because there are other players who are going to be pushing them to some degree.

Speaker B We also have talked about the idea that there might not be as aggressive a race to the bottom this year. Could always change. You could have a Philly or a New Orleans get into that mix. You know, a team that was supposed to be good and then of course wasn't. I, I think your, your reasoning is, is sound. I just fundamentally think that the Wizards in this iteration, they're too deficient at some of the most important things. Like their shot creation isn't fantastic. Their shot conversion, it'll depend on who's out there. Like, they have some versions of guys that can shoot, but then they also have some they can't. But also, like how many players in this entire rotation are above average defenders and they only have one center on their roster. And Sar. I'm a believer in Sar's defensive potential, but if you're basically building the whole ship on Alex Sar's defense, I think that's a lot to ask. I'm also, I mean, we'll get more of a sample on this, but I'm not the biggest fan of, of Adam Keefe as a coach. I, you know, I didn't, well, that's.

Speaker A That'S good because Adam Keefe is not their coach. Brian.

Speaker B That's right. Brian Keefe.

Speaker A Adam Keefe did somehow start basketball games in the 1998 NBA Finals, though, for the Utah Jazz. Yeah, he, Adam Keefe might be a better coach than Brian. Brian.

Speaker B There's, there's also a James Keefe that played for UCLA when I was there, who was actually the hire.

Speaker A Look up what Adam Keefe is doing around that now. But while you, while you continue your point there.

Speaker B Oh, his son played at Stanford recently. Yeah. So I, I, I'm not the biggest fan of, of Keef as a coach. I, I'm not, You know, we'll build out the sample a lot of coaches look shaky in year one and then look better later on. So I I I just don't think their offense or their defense is going to be good enough. I and the other part of this, I mean, you brought it up, is that their line being three wins higher than the Jazz. The Jazz line was way too low. If the Jazz line had been 21.5, I would have picked the under and I'm picking the under here.

Speaker A I'm gonna go over. I, I actually picked them for 23 wins with Pra. I I also like CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton are going to play at least some early on. Like you said, I don't think there's going to be this incredible need to get to 15 wins like there was last year to make sure they hold onto that top eight protected pick. So I just don't see see as many terrible teams. Some will emerge, they always do with injuries and the like. But yeah, and I don't think that they're gonna avoid the bottom five on either offense or defense. But I also just don't think that the bottom of the league is gonna be as terrible. Like, I mean they're, they don't really have other than Keyshawn George, it's hard to point to a single good defensive player they have unless SAR really takes a leap and then of course, you know, are they gonna play sar 37 minutes a game? No, they're not going to do that. And you could get hurt and stuff. And they don't have any other bigs either. I think not signing any bigs was sort of the nod to making sure that there's no way they could be good enough to lose that top eight protective pick, even if they're trying. But I think they're going to be try. Like they went through like so maybe you can take a look at this, but the first two months last year, I want to say they're like a negative 15 net rating, like just terrible. And at some point, and this was even as some of the supposedly stalwart vets were either traded or just weren't playing like Brogdon. Part of it was that they got smart and Middleton down the end too. And they also had lost so many games. And hilariously though, the reason Ace Bailey is a member of the Jazz instead of the Wizards is that Bub Carrington had a buzzer beater on the last night of the season, but still they were like semi respectable the second half of the year. Memory served.

Speaker B I I used January 15th just because that was about two months into the season, from that point on, The Wizards were 12 and 32 with a negative 10.7 differential. Now that was third worst, not worst, but I, I, and that's just the quickest I could pull. Um, one other thing I wanted to.

Speaker A Well, all right, so, so that's, that's basically right on the borderline of this. So I mean, I, I don't, I don't feel like awesome about it. This wouldn't be one of my best bets the way the Jazz would be, but no, I, I, I'm gonna go with the over. Anything else you want to add?

Speaker B Yes, one more thing which is, it's good to bring up with the Wizards. We didn't with the Jazz. Is, is I the, I'm wondering what the legacy will be of last year's lottery where the teams with the four worst records. The, the best any of them did in the lottery was fourth. The Hornets got fourth, the Jazz got fifth. The Wizards got sixth, the Pels got seventh. And the numbers are the numbers that shouldn't impact, it shouldn't be like, well, crap, nobody did it this year. So therefore it doesn't make a difference if you get the worst odds, the number one odds or the number two odds or the number three odds. But there could be. Since it's the same individuals in power, I wonder if in any of these circumstances there is some of that where it's like, you know, is it that big a difference? Because you and I have talked about how when, when you look at it, you know, like really what that does is it, it strengthens your floor and like the floor strength really mattered. Wizards, Jazz last year, you know, Ace Bailey went to one and not the other. But maybe teams aren't going to think about that as aggressively considering how hard the pendulum swung the other way last year.

Speaker A All right, so this is a disagreement for us. Let's move on to our next team.

Speaker B Next team is the Toronto Raptors. Raptors had an injury plagued season. They went 30 and 52 with the differential of a 31 win team. Having Brandon Ingram around at all this year, of course, Emmanuel Quickley played 33 games, so he missed almost 50 and a bunch of other guys had time with injury. The over under is set much higher than that. It is set at 38.55.

Speaker A I'm surprised it's this low. I guess I'm way higher on them than a lot of people. I picked them for double check this. Yeah, 42 wins. So yeah, this is a, a pretty solid over for me. And I think they just have too much talent. And we know they're not going to be hanging because they have too much talent. Sure. Could they just get so injured that they have problems? Could they just not have enough spacing as well? Like, they're actually a very good defense a year ago in the second half, in part due to a very easy schedule. But there's some talk locally that Darky Rakovic was doing a good job for them and they finished up average on defense. And, yeah, there could be injuries. Like, Brandon Ingram hasn't been a paragon of health either. Even Scotty Barnes. Like, but this, when you just compare their talent level to a lot of the teams around, like, yes, they are Team Quagmire in the sense that, you know, paying Brandon Ingram $40 million a year, paying RJ Barrett $30 million a year, paying quickly $30 million a year, like, that's not a way to win a championship, but it's also a way to, like, get to 500.

Speaker B Yeah, it could be. I mean, it's. I've talked at length about how uncomfortable I am with the process. The. The acquisition.

Speaker A Yeah, I'm just trying to divorce from that. Like, I agree with you.

Speaker B Oh, no, no, I. I agree with you. Yeah. And so last year, I was kind of working through the four factors on offense and defense. Last year on defense, the Raptors actually finished top half of the league. They finished 14th on defense. They were horrible at fouling. They were horrible at defensive rebounding, but they were pretty good in the other things. They forced a reasonable amount of turnovers under Darker Rajkovic. They were middle of the road in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage. And while I don't love their, you know, defensive anchor Jakob Pertle and their. Their conspicuous absence of backup centers like, they have. They have so many. I mean, I really like Colin Murray Boyles as a defender, but A, he's a rookie, and B, I still don't think he's a five. But this team has a lot of defensive capable players that aren't fives. And they also didn't have. It's not like, oh, they had Rudy Gobert last year, and then he's gone. Like, they. They were able to overcome. I mean, they don't have Chris Boucher anymore, but relative, that's not that, you know, that's not your whole defense, of course. So, like, I. I think that the idea that they could be at least a passable defense or even better than that is completely plausible. I'm still pretty skeptical about their offense, but the point of this, and it's interesting because I was originally, when I saw it, at first blush, I was like, oh, like my thought, because, you know, as people know, I'm way lower on the Raptors than, than you are. Just in general is like, oh, man, that's, that's, that's way too high. But when you kind of. I like to bring this up. I did a couple times in the east of like, well. Or in the west of like, what kind of team is this? And so the team that had the closest differential to 38 wins last year, clean the glass differential, was the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls, last year, they were 19th on offense, 18th on defense, and had the differential of a 30, basically a little bit below a 38 win team. So I, I think it's totally possible. I mean, I think the Raptors have the tools to be a better defensive team than the Bulls were last year. And the, and their offense is. I don't think it's going to be great, but I mean, it's not like that Bulls offense was great either. And the, the Raptors just, they, in terms of incentives, they have their own pick. But if they're this kind of team, if they're around a.500 team, then that's enough to stay in the mix. Like, if they were in the west, then that might be enough to take, take your foot off the gas and do a little bit towards the end. But I mean, they're going to be. If they're going to be in that mix, if they want to be in that mix. So I think that there's like. So my first thought was, hell no. Now I'm more on the fence and I. And your optimism on the Raptors is definitely something. I, of course, respect your opinion a ton, but the thing that gives me the most pause that we haven't talked about enough yet is, is kind of like how they're going to get good shots. Like, this team has a lot of bad shot takers and it has some bad shot generators too. Like Brandon Ingram. That's been my biggest criticism of him over the years. And Purdle's gotten better offensively. They didn't have Quickley for much and quickly was like one of their only guys and, like, who could do that sort of a thing outside of, like the guards creating tough guard shots. I'm still worried that they, it's not like they added much around Quickley and Barnes as those types of guys, the guys who make life easier on their teammates.

Speaker A Offensive, I mean, to me they were almost this good last year except that they just punted away the end of the season. That was with a horrible start and I, I don't think they're going to be as injured this year as they were last year. I mean obviously if Quickley is going to play 30 games then yeah, this is like a pretty decent bet for the under because his skill set is not particularly replaceable for them. But this is kind of my thinking on it when I talked about this with Blake that they actually did pretty well in the non half court offense aspects of offense and Brandon Ingram is at least going to give them a little bit of a floor now in that respect. And I don't think Scotty Barnes is going to have like 52% true shooting again either. And I do think that their, their defense like I'm not like a massive Jakob Pertle fan and in fact if their evens is not good this year I think he'll, that'll be an indictment on him. But he's an adequate defensive center and they have a lot of length around him. I'm interested to see like this is a team I'll probably be watching pretty closely in preseason both to see all these guys look but also how dark. Roy Akovich is going to try to integrate the likes of Brandon Ingram into a more movement based system which is what he likes and a ball movement based system. But I think there, there's a possibility that something could be unlocked there. I just, I think some of their, they have enough decent young guys that some of them could pop like Jacobe Walter or Grady Dick. Like they're very low on shooting. I don't like that and they're an injury risk which I don't like. But I think the defense given a pretty decent floor they're going to be trying this year and I just think that like this to me screams 500 team and again like the, with the resources they put in that's a disappointment. But 38 and a half just seems like way too low. Like I, I just with the talent on this team again it doesn't fit that well but they just, they have some resiliency in terms of like the ability to create shots as well. So I'm, this may end up being one of my best bets actually.

Speaker B Wow.

Speaker A So that's interesting. Two, two disagreements so far. Who is next?

Speaker B I, I, I will say I was still considering I was still you. I think you read me correctly. I was still considering the over but I am going next.

Speaker A Okay. Yeah, I thought you were, you were pretty. Yeah you seem pretty locked in on that.

Speaker B I did settle on that as you were talking. And one, just briefly because you brought it up until Valentine's Day last year, the Raptors, so that, you know, as a rough proxy, they had a negative 5.7 clean the glass differential. So they were, they were below that kind of standard as of that point. And I, you know, that's just the line. The line I drew roughly. The All Star break. Next up. Oh, boy. If the Raptors were entry plagued, I don't know what we described the Sixers as. The Sixers last year. I don't even want to go through their record last year because it doesn't really matter. Instead, we can just say that their over under is set at the compelling 43.5.

Speaker A So as I go through this, I would say my method is let's start with them being fully healthy. Just, just hold your, hold your laughter. Just, just, just wait. And then we'll, then we'll discount for injuries. Let's say Joel could play 55, 60 games. I wouldn't expect him to play at an MVP level, maybe not even all NBA level, but probably at an all star level. Paul George, even coming off this knee surgery, he says he's feeling a lot better. It's sounding like he'll be ready close to the start of the season. Of course, they already have Jared McCain out with this thumb issue. I wasn't like so high on what he was going to give them if they're healthy just because they have enough shot creation. They don't really need like he was, because all those guys were out. That's part of why he was doing so much last year. Like, I think if he was gonna have to be doing a lot for them, that probably meant that so much had gone wrong that it wasn't gonna matter anyway. So I, I don't think that's gonna hurt them that much. You know, I think him, he was gonna be getting like 15, 20 minutes a game off, off the bench would, would be my thought. And so I think offensively they could be pretty darn good with Joel Paul. I mean, they also just had this crazy season a year ago where they just could not make a shot. Like Paul George for half the year was shooting like 28% on open three. It's like it's just not going to happen again. Like it was a year from hell in more ways than one. Like if you look at. They just were totally unable and obviously they tanked down the end and they went 4 and 27 or whatever. It was. But they're just totally unable to make open shots. Right. They shot 34% from three as a team, and there was a lot of bad guys, you know, your Uber and the like, taking them. But their team generated e. Field goal percentage was fourth worst in the NBA at. Sorry, fifth worst in the NBA at 56.5%. And that's where you're really. Those. You're supposed to be the most efficient shots in basketball. That and you're. They just could not knock down anything that was out there. So I and Tyrese Maxey didn't have a very good year either. They couldn't convert anything around the rim. All. They couldn't get an offensive rebound, obviously. I don't know if they're going to be much better at that this year. So I think these guys, if healthy, you know, are easily a top 10 offense like that, you know, Maxi George, Embiid, and now you've got some better guys around them. Like, some of the young guys are kind of interesting to me. So defensively, I think they're going to struggle. They're probably going to struggle on the boards because Embiid isn't a good defensive rebounder and they're going to be playing Paul, George or U at the 4 in a lot of their lines. They lost Yabusel.

Speaker B They're so small.

Speaker A Yeah. So as I look at it here, I mean, I kind of discounted it. But if healthy, I think these guys are a top 10 offense. Nick Nurse will ramp up the pressure. He'll try to do a few math things to help, but tough for me to see them with this talent and just the lack of size getting out of the bottom 10 defensively, certainly not to be above average. So if healthy, you know, I kind of see these guys and healthy being, you know, Joel playing 60 games, George paying 60 games. I kind of see them as, you know, maybe like a mid to high 40s type of group. What do you think of that?

Speaker B I think that's about what I was considering as well. And their defense is. Is just a huge problem for me. I mean, they're. They have Joelle, but also Joel Embiid's movement probably, I would assume, is not going to be as good as it was in a lot of moments over the last.

Speaker A He has lost weight. I mean, maybe we should. Should we just talk about that now of just what we actually expect from him.

Speaker B So I mean, the most obvious. The most obvious is that he's not going to play on back to back. So you're. You're going to, you're going. Even if he's, even when he's available, you're going to knock out those game, however many that is for the Sixers specific schedule this year. But just, you know, as a, as a recoverer on defense, he's always going to be gigantic. But as a person who can recover, like, what sort of schemes can you run? I think if his movement is more limited, you're more scheme limited. And I brought up before the Sixers, other than Joel Embiid, are just an extraordinarily small team. I mean, they're going to be playing two guys that I consider natural small forwards at power forward. They're going to be playing presumably natural twos at the three. And then it's not like they're making up for that with giant point guards. No, they're, they're, they're relatively kind of normal enough. Right? I mean, Grimes can like, Grimes can. I think he's okay. I think he's, I brought this up in my Discord chat recently. Like, I think he's capable defensively, but all of those guys are going to be overmatched. And Joel Embiid's biggest deficiency on defense is on the defensive class. And there's no one who can pick him up unless it's going to be a lot of training. Watford or Jabari Walker.

Speaker A I should note that Don Barlo and Jabari Walker are both on this team on two ways. I would imagine they will get to a point where they're on the active roster if, if they play well. But those guys could both rebound. I mean, Don Barlo actually started their preseason, their two. I don't know if he started the two preseason. He started this most recent one in Abu Dhabi. Joel, of course, did not play. Paul George, of course did not play. So but like those guys may be able to come and I was kind of discounting them for a time because they weren't on actual NBA contracts. But I was reminded that I actually like both those players and particularly Jabari Walker as a rebounder and someone who can make some shots when you do a little switching. So there's maybe some hope that they can knock heads a little bit more. Andre Drummond can't possibly be worse than he was last year. Bona Johnny Broom. Like they could maybe give him a little something like they had just taken terrible center play last year. But anyway, sorry I've gone astray. I mean, with Joel, they seem like more optimistic on him. It does seem like one of these things was like, ah, there's a little swelling. He's gonna have to sit down three seconds before tip off. All of a sudden he's not available, even though he wasn't on the injury report. But he at least seems to have slimmed down and he seems to be in a better place than he was last year. And he's at least, you know, he's doing some live action stuff at this point in camp. So I mean, unless he has a setback, it seems like he's on track to play opening night. Where as last year you were, everyone had to be very skeptical of that.

Speaker B Well, and, and Nate, when you mentioned Paul George playing six games, I'm like, man, that's really low. And Paul George, Paul George has only played 60 games once since he joined the Clippers in 1920, albeit a couple of modified seasons due to Covid. But he's played since 1920. 48, 54, 31, 56, 74 and then 41 last year. Now there's a tanking team in there. A couple other things, but it's not like he was out there every night. I, I had just. I. Because he, like, I hadn't really thought of him in kind of the Anthony Davis vein because Paul, his most memorable injury was one that he fully recovered from. The broken, the horrifying broken leg in Team usa. But he's just missed time for a variety of different maladies over the last, over the years.

Speaker A Yeah. And some of them have been upper. You know, there's like an elbow issue. Not the sort of thing you expect to recur. Although Jay Engelman has noted that his research has shown that there is some predictive power of just any injury leading to more injuries. Now it's better when it's not the knee and it's just their, their knee is now there's no cartilage in there like Joelle and it's just going to continue to be a problem. But I mean, I think I got to ultimately go under here though, because I'm just not sure they're even that good when they're quote unquote healthy. And then you got a discount off of that. Like, I don't think this is. If Joel plays 60 games, Paul George plays 60 games. Does it seem like a 50 win team to you?

Speaker B No, it doesn't. And they, they do have a shot creation floor that's higher than most teams because they have a lot of guys who can actually do that. But I worry about their defense and they're just, they're a little bit small and it's not like the Sixers are so asset rich where they can. Oh, they could throw everything they have and get a, get another star. Like there is a. Daryl's always talking, he's always trying to deal with, but they're not.

Speaker A And then he always gets out of the tax.

Speaker B Yes, yes, that too. And with, and with Grimes signing his qualifying offer, he's not a trade ship, you know, to get a real asset in return and all that type of stuff. So it's a, it's a hard, it's a hard run. And I think that your thesis on this is really good, which is if you can't, if you can't buy the best version of them, well, then it's hard to. It's hard to do it. And there are. These aren't just, oh, you know, like, oh, they're guys who could get hurt. They're guys with significant injury realities that we've discussed a lot over the years.

Speaker A Yeah. And I think they're just, they also have a pretty mismatched roster. And yeah, the two way guys can help with that a little bit, but not amazingly so. And so I, I don't think it's impossible that they go for it by any means. But I, I think this is, this group like on the boards, protect, protecting the rim, overall athleticism is, is not great. Also, I mean, they're going to play VG Edgecomb some. I don't think he's really going to help this year. I know. Oh, he's fixed his shot. It's so much better. Like, okay, you know, like he's. I'm not as young as he is. He doesn't really have like a perfect NBA position right now other than just sort of getting out in transition and trying to play hard. But it's still going to be a rookie defensively. So I'm not buying that. Like he's going to help them and he's going to get some entitlement, particularly early with McCain out. And so yeah, I mean, I think they should be. The one thing I will say is I think they're going to shoot it a lot better this year than they did last year and that will help them. And this may be close to the best shooting team that they've had around Joel. But yeah, ultimately I got to go under for Philly and to be fair to my joke about Daryl and Josh Harris, like, I don't think this team is good enough that they should be going like second April and paying a bunch of money for Quinton Grimes, etc, but And I also don't think that they're going to be good enough to where they're going to try to make a big move to, to fill a hole. And they can't trade Grimes. Like their lack of matching salary makes things kind of difficult to, to make a move too.

Speaker B Yeah. And they don't have a ton of matching salary. Even if some of the U and Drummonds of the world rehab their value. It's just the structure of it. Embiid, George and Maxi just they're, they're fourth highest player. Highest paid player right now is Vijay Edgecom. Like that's, that's incredible. Like they're just, they just don't have those middle tier salaries like you know, combination trades like that. Those just don't really happen that often. So let's get to the Magic. Orlando fascinating team. They, they were injury ravaged last year. Paulo played 46 games. Franz Wagner played 60, Suggs played 35. They were 500. Had the differential of a 42 win team. But a worthwhile note the year before The Magic won 47 had the differential of a 47 win team. And of course now they have Desmond Bane who they added without. I mean KCP will be missed and Cole Anthony to an extent will be missed but not in the sense of like you know like for like or anything of that nature. But the over under is set at 50.5.

Speaker A Jaylen Suggs potentially not being ready to start the season coming off that knee surgery is concerning. I mean he's basically had one healthy year and he's also had one year in which he shot the ball. Well now you were remained very skeptical about his shooting. I thought he still was taking enough of them that yeah, maybe he's not a 40% 3 point shooter on 8 for 36 but he, he's still enough to be pretty good. And they have Bane now next to him but they are very much relying on him I think. Yeah, you got Bane in. That should help with the terrible three point shooting. Hopefully Franz and Powell will be a little bit better. Hopefully Wendell Carter is not going to shoot 18.3% from 3 for an entire year, whatever it was. But you know there's still could struggle from the outside. I think Suggs is just so important to them both to their defense. And we saw in terms of the on off like you maybe was their most important player last year when he went down everything just totally changed for this group. I did like what they did still in the playoffs if they caused some problems for Boston and I just, I'M a big believer they're in their defense. Like I have them penciled in for a top three defense. And so to me, like could they be a little bit worse with Bane taking over for kcp? I suppose so if Suggs isn't healthy enough. Because then KZB actually had a pretty underrated defensive season a year ago. And the components, their defense, one of the things they do is force a lot of turnovers. Bane could do that off the ball but he's, he's not really someone who you can put on the best guard on the other team. So they kind of need Suggs for that. And then if it Suggs is out now you're getting down to Anthony Black. Now they do have Tyus Jones too. That's going to hurt their defense. So I, I don't think they're gonna be quite as good defensively as they were a year ago unless Suggs can play the whole season. It's because they just don't have quite as many guys. Jamal Mosley just kept throwing out all these defenders because those are the only guys on the roster because no one was making shots anyway. And that's part how you get to number two on defense. But I believe in their defensive coaching at this point and a lot of this personnel. So I, maybe they're not automatically a top three defense but top five. I would surprised if they weren't with now this true two year track record that they have. So it really comes down to the offense. What do you make of their ability to be better offensively coming off one of the worst shooting seasons in recent memory?

Speaker B It's the core question with them. And there's a template for a defense. First team with a limited offense, winning, playing at a 50 game pace, winning 50 games. And that's the Clippers. Last year The Clippers were third in defense, they were 15th on offense and they had played at a 52 win pace. They won 50 and that's with Kawhi Leonard missing about more than half the season. Nate, do you want to guess? The last time the Orlando Magic finished above league average in offense was obviously different coaches.

Speaker A It was the Dwight Howard era. Yeah, this, I mean this is, we've been talking about this for a while. I know Zach's been talking about it for a while. It's. It's like probably 2012, I guess.

Speaker B 2012. Exactly. And so there are, and to be clear, since then the closest they've gotten is they were 17th once. They've been 21st or worse every other year since 2011, 12. And that is a lot of different iterations in terms of best players and all that type of stuff. And of course Paolo and Franz, hopefully they'll play more. Hopefully they'll be better than they were. And I mean both, I mean Franz in particular was, was better than I expected when available last year. But Desmond Bain helps. I don't think he transforms them in, in, in all those ways. They still have. They won't be as bad shooting, but they're not great. Like, it's not like they've gotten a ton of good shooters. And Desmond Bain is a very good player, but he's not, he also doesn't reinvent the wheel in terms of the shots he's generating for other people. And I, I think that, I think that there are versions of this magic offense that will look a lot better than they have before. But to say, you know, I brought up the Clippers at the template to say you probably need to get to 15. The Clippers were third on defense last year. It's not like they were fifth. They were third on defense last year and needed to be 15th to get to this 50 win area. I don't, I don't see that even if you're swapping some of those, you throw in an offensive player this year for a, when it would have been a defensive guy last year. I don't think that's enough to solve these problems. I love Paolo's talent. I, I don't think that he's going to be that dude offensively for a team that doesn't, that doesn't make him sing. But you know, like with spacing and all that type of stuff. So it's plausible, but I don't think.

Speaker A It'S probable I'm going to hit the over anyway. I, I just believe, believe in these guys now. I mean some of these numbers from last year are just so comically bad and they're just going to get better. So here are some of our numbers. They shot 4.1 percentage points worse from 3 point range than would have been expected. That is just an insanely low number. So that's based on the quality of the shot, whether it's contested or not, where it is in the shot clock, whether it's off the dribble or not. The second worst team in the league shot 2.9 percentage points worse. That was Washington. They shot 35% on uncontested threes and then on off the dribble three self created threes, 29.5%. I also think Tyus Jones is a very underrated player. For them. Just having a backup point guard who can make open shots take care of the ball, that will really help too. Tyus Jones, a great guy avoiding turnovers and he actually can play some defense. Like they'll, teams will go after him. Like he's, I think in the playoffs he's not going to be a huge factor, but he at least can like help get some steals and stuff, which is part of what makes them so good. Help him get out and transition a little bit more, hit a head pass. Like, they just haven't had a real point guard with a pulse on this team. I mean, I think about it two years ago they won 48. Am I remembering that right?

Speaker B 47.

Speaker A Okay. And so I think they can be four wins better than that team. And because also I think you're discounting Franz and Powell are just going to be way better. Right. Like, they both those guys missed a ton of time. I don't think e. Neither of them have like big health issues. Like, they both had the oblique was, was why they missed time. I think they're both just going to shoot better and be better. And the Magic were kind of. And then I think Suggs will play more than he did last year. I really hope he does. Like, I, I, I don't really know that much about this injury. You know, again, that's like the thing that gives me a lot of pause is that Jaylen Suggs just like, maybe he's not the same guy. Maybe he's just not going to play that much. This injury is just a, not one that we've seen before. Like, could, could it just be one of these things where he just, just does a degenerative condition in his knee and he's always managing it and so he's never going to play back to backs and stuff. But they have pretty good depth too. So I think ultimately, you know, Mo Wagner is not, I'm not counting on much from him. But they still have Batadze as backup center. They still have Jonathan Isaac who can play in some switching groups. Also. They could even if they wanted to, like the amount of switching they'll be able to do now with Bane, who's pretty strong there. Like, I, I just think Bane really helps them too as a shooter. So, yeah, I'm, I'll have it done there full pod yet. I reserve the rights to change my mind a little bit. But I'm going to go over here.

Speaker B Three disagreements in four and this is not anywhere close to a best bet. For me, I just think that this is closer to a high water mark. I could see The Magic winning 52, 53 games and some of the top teams in the east are heavily injured and maybe there's some, some more room to roam. But in not being quite the team, I hope being a little bit injured, all those sorts of things are, are enough. And that is a kind of a natural transition into the next team. The New York Knickerbockers. The Knicks last year won 51 games with the differential of a 53 win team. They were their most important players, were pretty healthy overall. Jalen Brunson played 65 games in the regular season. Towns 72, Anobi 74. Bridges played all 82. Mr. Ironman, Mitchell Robinson missed a bunch of season. But we're not usually going to spend a lot of this time talking about oh they, their sixth man was hurt a lot. Like that's not usually something we talk about in regular season over unders.

Speaker A Yeah, well I do think it's worth noting as a reason why their defense could be a lot better.

Speaker B True. And so last year they were, you know, they were around this level of team. I would say they were healthier than most last year and they did play a coach that was a more hard driving regular season coach though less creative offensively than we hope Mike Brown would be. They changed their head coach. And so for me the argument that the Knicks will be this good is completely clear. The argument that they could be a 54, 55 win team. The over under is set at 53.5. It's there. However, there are two huge issues for that with me. One is I don't see them as a like 60 win juggernaut type of team. Like the, the five wins, better framing of this is I think unfavorable to the Knicks. The other is I think there's a meaningful chance they are less healthy in 2526 than they were in 2425. And this is an extremely top heavy team. If Jalen Brunson plays less, if Karl Anthony Towns plays less, if any of those four plays fewer minutes than they did, they don't have a lot of guys who can step up and pick it up. They don't have Dante DiVincenzo anymore. They do have Yabuzeli but like he's not that type of guy. I like Abu Saleh but I don't think that he's going to solve their problems. So I'm, I'm a pretty clear under. I think that this will be One of my best bets.

Speaker A Oh, interesting. Yeah. 53 and a half is too high. I, I think I. I do believe they could go over this because I think Mike Braun, he could get this offense to sing a little bit more. I think it's even possible that they could get into the top 10 in defense just via playing Mitchell Robinson more, playing Towns more at the four. And I do think they could be. You know, I mean, the numbers offensively last year were pretty good overall. So even though I feel like there is a way for them to be better on both sides of the ball. Yeah, three and a half wins better, four wins better, or yeah, I guess it would be four, three wins better than last year. I'm not sure I buy that I picked him for 52 wins. I. I think there is some potential here. I think part of the reason this is so high is just people being like, oh, there's nobody else in the east, so that has to. They're going to be the second best team. It has to be this. But as noted many, many times on this show, the conference you play in is worth a win, maybe two at the absolute max. Conference disparity because 28 of your games are. Is all that are affected there to make your schedule easier. 58 of your games, or. Sorry, I misspoke there. 24 of your games are conference exclusive. 58 of them are exact same for every team. As I looked through it, I think as I ranked their offensive defense, I think they'll probably be lower into the top five on offense. Although I don't see a dominant offense out there other than Cleveland and maybe Denver and OKC has always been very good in terms of the numbers, but they don't. I just don't see them as like a dominant one in. In that way. And then defense, I have them kind of in the 10 to 15 range. They were 12th last year. I could see them getting better, getting into the lower end of the top 10. But yeah, I mean, 54 wins, you gotta be close to threatening top five on both sides of the ball or you gotta be. They gotta be number one in off. That's not impossible, honestly. But I just. I could see a pathway that things go really, really well. But 54 wins, I don't see as kind of like their baseline here. I see that as a pretty rosy scenario. So as you, I'm going to go under.

Speaker B All right, so both unders, but me a little bit more confident than you, it sounds to me. Next up is the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks won 48 games had the differential of a 46 win team they won look dramatically different. No Damian Lillard due to injury and being waved and stretched. No Brook Lopez replaced by Miles Turner. No Chris Middleton, Number of other things. Over, under set at 43.5.

Speaker A Oh, yeah. Giannis just now getting into camp due to Covid. Looks like it's going to take him a while to recover his strength. When I looked at these guys offense and defense, I kind of. I. I don't think I have them as a top 10 offense, and I don't think I have them as a top 10 defense. So now you're kind of right on the borderline of that. And that's before Giannis even necessarily misses time. Now, like, he's Gonna maybe play 65. He's definitely not gonna play 75 at this point in time. And on nights that he misses, what are they doing? Right? Like, I do think Miles Turner is someone who's gonna really help them, and just having that spacing at the 5 will be great. Is he going to be that much better than what Brooke Lopez gave them last year? Yeah, probably a little bit, but still kind of same thing. So they can play a similar way. Maybe they can do a little bit more defensively. Versatile. Versatile stuff. Excuse me. So is there. I guess maybe I see more upside for them defensively than offensively.

Speaker B Nate, can I give you an interesting number on this?

Speaker A Okay.

Speaker B I. I've been thinking about some of what you've been discussing, and last year with a different group, when Giannis was on the floor and Damian Lillard was not, and there was a larger sample there than. Than there would be some years, just because of Lillard's missed time with the. With the DBT, they had a 124.3 offensive rating and a plus 9 differential. I don't expect that to persist and continue, but that is definitely encouraging. On what? On that they can get enough good shots when Dame's off the floor, which he will be this whole season.

Speaker A Yeah, they had a very good shooting team a year ago, and I'm not sure that they're going to get the same thing out of Kevin Porter Jr. As they did last year, because he was actually really good for them. He was terrible for the Clippers. Like Tan Prince was someone who was really able to knock down shots. Kyle Kuzma was not able to knock down any shots at all. Gary Trent, I trust to shoot the ball pretty well. A.J. green, I trust to shoot the ball pretty well. Ryan Rollins will see he's dealing coming off this shoulder issue, but he shot it well last year. Like, I did feel there's a little bit of an element of some of these guys being above their heads, other than Kuzma, who is so miserable. You know, they're going to have Cole Anthony as maybe like a backup scoring guard. They're talking maybe about him being the rotation. The other thing they're talking about is just trying to pressure more and that that might be possible, but they also don't really have a three on the roster. Like, Kuzma is the closest thing to that. So I think you can only be so good defensively. Like, if I look at the best defender on this team, like, it probably would be Rollins. Like, there are guys like Trent Porter Jr. Like, they can pressure up a little bit. You know, AJ Green's an underrated defender. Prince is not an underrated defender. He's just bad Kuzma. I don't see him necessarily turning over a new leaf. And then Giannis, to me, is just. He's not anywhere close to the same guy. And now that Damon's out, he's going to have to do even more offensively. And I just don't expect him to be some big defensive force at all. So that when I look at it defensively, you know, I kind of have a mid pack, maybe a little bit above, and the offense is the thing. And I'm just like, they shot it so well last year. I'm just not sure that they can quite get there. I mean, that, that one 24. I mean, is there anything. Can you elaborate on that number? Is there anything that, like, sticks out to you as far as why they're able to be successful to that level?

Speaker B They had a. They were 99th percentile in terms of effective field goal percentage, and they shot 42.3% on threes in those lineups, including 49% from the corner. I don't expect that to necessarily continue. That's pretty. That's pretty astronomical. They will get to the line a lot because that is Giannis's biggest strength. And one thing that could change. It's notable that although those groups line.

Speaker A A lot with Giannis, there's nobody else who can do it other than him.

Speaker B Right? These are the Giannis on Willard offense. Like, that's. That's the sample I'm talking about. But the other striking thing that that group didn't do was turn the ball over. And you would think considering, you know, Ryan Rollins was in a lot of those KPJ who was. Had his. He had his flaws in in Clipper land and then did a lot better with the Bucks. So they shot the crap out of the ball, but they were also good in some of the other stuff. They did an offensive rebound, but this team doesn't do that. Anyway, that's not going to change with Miles Turner in the fold. So I, I think that the. And it's funny because I, I've loved Miles Turner so much over the years. I really like the fit of Turner and Giannis. I think that the best iteration of the Bucks is maybe better than some are thinking just based on kind of where this number is. However, I am simultaneously less confident that that will happen as much due to Giannis's availability, due to potentially, you know, Turner and some of the other guys. And I'm cons. I'm more concerned about the others. The. The non Giannis minutes, all of those sorts of things. And they do have Doc Rivers as their coach, though that's more of a postseason issue for me than a regular season one. And they. If they shoot a little bit worse, if they just are a little bit worse, then the wheels could fall off the wagon. And I wonder, you know, for this team, how them not controlling their own pick this year factors into things like maybe there's a little like maybe. But if we're talking in that vicinity, and I'm not saying that I am, then this is hitting the under like if. If. Because they don't have their own pick because it's owed to. You know, depending on that wild swap that your dream are agreed to, it's. It's owed to. It's owed to either.

Speaker A Oh, wait a minute. Don't they. Don't they actually have their own pick?

Speaker B Atlanta?

Speaker A Oh, don't they have Milwaukee?

Speaker B You're right. Milwaukee receives the less favorable. I thought that they traded that, but it was the. That the New Orleans just traded their segment of it. But they would. So this requires a specific hypothetical to actually matter, and that is the Pelicans are really bad and the Bucks are similarly bad.

Speaker A Yeah. So. So I, I don't think they do have their own pick, which is interesting. And also, Giannis might not be on the team anymore, right. If, if things go well, maybe he would ask for a trade. Now, we've been talking about this for a long time, but, you know, they always had a team that you felt like at the start of the season could really compete, which I don't feel is the case this year. So it may be different. Like the, the noise has not necessarily quelled on that. And Giannis is really good. I'm just worried again at his age, the declining defense, he's going to have the ball every night. How much longer can he keep it up at this level with this crazy athleticism that's required. He looked good in Eurobasket, but he's such a good athlete there, it's not a surprise. I'm really right on the borderline with this one. I might even end up changing my pick. When I, I do their full outlook, I think I am going to go because Turner is pretty good. It's just Miles Turner is your second best player. Man. That's like, like I do like the depth of this team. But do they have even third a third starter level player on this?

Speaker B Well, that, that's. You brought up the second best player. That's the issue I'm going under here is their third best player and it, that that's really, really below where it needs to be. And the Bucks in certain circumstances have. They have multiple options. So like if Ryan Rollins isn't the answer, they could try Kevin Porter Jr. They have, you know, they, they have Gary Harris on this team now. They have Cole Anthony. But those aren't great answers. Those are paper. Those are stopgap answers. The, the Bucks also don't like. They, they could do some stuff in terms of like matching salaries, like they're far enough after the wave and stretch below the tax, but I don't expect them to like move heaven earth. They also, a lot of their money is kind of tied up in players that aren't necessarily the easiest to trade. They also have of course, a lot of their picks owed in various different facets. So I'm not confident in the under here, but I am picking it.

Speaker A Yeah, this is another group too that if they are still intact, they can rack up wins at the end of the season as they did a year ago. The thing that really stands out to me as I look at our numbers here is just how reliant they were on elite shot making. This was the best shooting team in the league from three last year, 38.6%. We actually had them overall with the fourth worst shot quality. When you consider shots taking place.

Speaker B Wow.

Speaker A On the floor now. Despite that they're really good at finishing because of Giannis and because of some of the spacing that they have, they shot, you know, not really that much better than you would expect on three pointers. We have another metric called player specific shot quality that says look at the shot quality. You look at the history of the players who are taking Them what would you expect them to shoot? And our number for that was 37.9%. They shot 38.6% so they are a little bit better than on some of these guys, but not by much. Now they did lose Damian Lillard and I do think their three point shot quality overall is going to go down as a result of not having him. And they also are going to have Kyle Kuzma for a full season who just has forgotten how to shoot the last few years. I don't think it'll be quite that bad, but if you're, you think he's going to shoot above, above league average, I, I'm not going to buy that necessarily. So yeah, I mean are they going to be the best spot of shooting team in the league this year and can they get as many of those looks as well? And is Giannis still going to be as good of a finisher? I, I'm just, I'm not quite sure I'm there, so I think I will go on the under here, but I certainly could see them doing more. I think it ultimately comes down to I don't know if Giannis is going to play that many games. I don't know what they're going to do when he's out. So maybe I'm just underrating the Turner effect too much. We kind of had. They already had a similar player last year.

Speaker B Yeah, it's not like they're the Pelicans who just sorely need it. They, they, they already had him. Miami last year dealt with the Jimmy butler saga, finished 37 and 45 with the differential. Notably one of the teams that underperformed by the most of a 42 win team. Jimmy Butler only played in 25 games for them and was not exactly giving his all in every game he participated in. But their other principals played a lot. Bam Adebayo played 78 games, Tyler Herro played 77 and their over under is set right in the same vicinity, 37.5. They won 37 last year.

Speaker A Yeah, before Tyler Hero went out this would have been a pretty easy over for me. I'm sure it was a little bit higher before then, but I don't think it was much. I thought I my eyes glanced across it. It was still in the 30s because I thought they could actually be pretty average on offense with Heroes. He took a step forward but now you're talking about him having surgery, missing some of the start of the season and then what level is he going to be at when he gets back too? Like I thought he took for the first time a consistent step beyond this sort of combo guard, scorer, Jordan Pool type of guy to someone who really was controlling the offense and an elite offensive player a year ago. How much of this season, if at all, are they going to get that same guy? I'm not sure what the answer to that is. I would suspect it's going to take at least half the year for him to really be back into things and then they're just so underpowered in terms of their creation.

Speaker B It really helps that they added Norman Powell and that was a great transaction for the Heat overall, but they're going to need him to do a whole hell of a lot with Tower Heroes. Injury unfortunately looking like it will linger not only into the season, but I really like that you brought up the point that they will. That he will have to get back into form too. This isn't. This is an injury where you snap your fingers, you come back and you're 100% like there will be an adjustment that comes in then. And there are reasons for some optimism for the Heat relative to last year, the weird down year of Jaime Hawkes. Like if he just bounces back and is a better version of or even closer to a version of what he was his rookie year. I wonder now that he extended what they intend for Nikola Jovic. Like is he. Is he gonna. How. How you play Jovic and where is one of the higher intrigue questions for me kind of as a rotate, as like a coach management issue. And of course Andrew Wiggins is still a very good player, but they need so much from Hero. He had a really good year last year, especially relative to my expectations for him and that got them to about this level. So if he played 77 last year and yes, they have Norm Powell, but they needed that version of Hero for as much as they had him to get there and they're not going to have him for that much. For as much because we already know that right now.

Speaker A Yeah. So we're probably going to start Davion Mitchell Powell, Andrew Wiggins, bam. Kell Ware. It should be a pretty good defensive group. Ware is someone. I'm very interested to see what he looks like. Can he take the next step or is he going to kind of have a sophomore slump after Heat Nation was infatuated with him as a rookie? And is he going to be trying to work on expanding his game or is he just going to work on making open shots, finishing around the rim and deterring shots on the other end? And then. Yeah, I mean the Backup guard situation with Hero out is terrible. Right. You've got rookie Kasparis Yakuchonas and you've got Terry Rosier who is acting like maybe he's going to have a pulse this year and he's still eligible to play despite this gambling investigation. But he's just been unplayable essentially since the moment they acquired him. I don't expect that to turn around. He'll get chances and Drew Smith can at least like guard the ball a little bit, but he's not a creator. Passing they just have. Other than Bam, they just have no passing on this team at all. So you think they're going to be worse than the sum of their parts on offense. And the spacing is probably still a little bit below average too if you're playing Bam at power forward some. And then if you want to move Bam to the five and you bring in Jovic, how many. I guess he really a consistent shooter at this point. I'm like a. I mean I know they believe in him, but given both his health issues and the fact that I've never felt that he's made that consistent of an impact like he has a skill level and you know, maybe he could become like a Santi Alama type of player and maybe he's a little bit better with the ball than that. But is he someone that you give the ball to? And defensively he's always just going to be adequate at best and probably below that. So I. I don't know that I quite understood why they needed to extend him at this point in time. And then third big precious Achua, maybe you'll make the team. They've got all these weird boards like Vasquez or. Or sorry, not Vasquez, Hakez. My Texas too small there. I do like Simone Fontio, I think, but I think they're going to miss the ability of Haywood Heisman to guard the ball. I don't know. I. I've been just prattling on here with no real indication.

Speaker B I think we might see some of that from the Heat this year.

Speaker A So I. Oh, and one other thing we should note too. They have their pick free and clear because they made the playoffs last year and gave it up to okc. So that's important.

Speaker B Yeah. And that could be relevant at this sort of an over under. I brought up how it wasn't for the Bucks at 43.5 at 37.5 it could potentially be like you do a little bit at the end to try to maximize. And if Tower Hero had a clean bill of health to start the season, I would have picked this over and yes, it probably would have been a little bit higher and I would. Maybe that would have given me some pause. But I, I have to go under here.

Speaker A Fuck it. I'm still going over. Woo even. And again, if things go really bad for them at the start of the year, we'll hear it was out. You could see them just kind of packing it in at least a little bit. But because they do owe their pick next year to Charlotte. But it is lotto protected so they could tank again next year if they really wanted to rebuild. But I, I think they're still, they're trying to build up this team, get someone else in Iran Adebayo. And so I think they're going to be trying to win games and like there is a lot of talent on this roster. Like they're just to be a 37 win team. I think they are better. They should be better this year, right, Than last year. Other than, other than Hero. Everything else would point to them being better. And they also had like, they were better than this last year too. They just had this really weird circumstance where they lost a ton of close games.

Speaker B Yeah, they, they underperformed their differential by the second most in the league last year. Yeah, I mean I was all ready to like, I think they're. I. Before the hero, before the Hero thing happened, I was ready to be more optimistic.

Speaker A But I think Bam is going to be, is going to be better offensively. He really can't be worse last year. So I, I think, and I think Fontechio is shooting at the 3. 4 will help them too. Yeah, I think these guys, they just have a lot of good players on this team. Like they're missing the one like a great star. But I do think this is a group that'll run through the tape like they're, they can be in the play in mix again. I, I would be surprised if they, if they go under here in the end and, and I do think Hero will come back and help them at some point. So. Yeah, it's another disagreement.

Speaker B It's another disagreement. And by the way, we have done seven teams in the East. I have picked six Unders and for some reason I'm not sure the under train is stopping here in terms of the overall East.

Speaker A Next up is Indiana. But I know everyone is waiting with bated breath from the beginning of the podcast to know what Adam Keefe is up to these days. Last, last Wikipedia entry is that he led the 36Sports Strong campaign that successfully persuaded Stanford to reverse a 2020 decision to cut 11 varsity sports, including field hockey and wrestling. So that's that's the last entry in his Wikipedia I'm sure there's other stuff going on with Adam Keep I haven't tried that hard to look but it does not appear Adam that he is he became a financial advisor after retiring from basketball, so that's he does not appear to be involved in basketball anyway. He was a youth coach for a short time, so still some possibility perhaps that he could actually be a better coach than Brian Keefe. Sorry about the Pacers.

Speaker B Let's do it. And Indiana not super relevant. As much fun as it was to talk about their amazing 2425 season and postseason where they came within one game of the NBA championship because Tyrese Halberton is out for this year, Myles Turner is out of the organization and that's a lot to take I mean because especially considering both of those players were not replaced by any external additions. Depending on how generous you want to get with certain center, I guess you could say J. Huff. I guess that's the external addition at center that came in. But they're going to be relying a lot on the brilliance of Rick Carlisle. Plenty of brilliance there, but also a lot of players to step into larger roles and responsibilities than they had previously.

Speaker A Yeah, this is pretty interesting. A season ago without Tyrese Halberton on the floor, the Indiana Pacers had a negative 0.9 net rating with pretty much right in line with a 38 and a half win team. To me this all comes down to the organizational mindset. They could go over 38 and a half in this Eastern Conference. For sure they do have talent with this group, but Andrew Neard looked pretty good in the playoffs for three games against Boston two years ago when Halberton was out did not look great as the starting point guard a year ago. Ricardo made this point on Zach Lowe's podcast the other day that Andrew Nemhard having to be the starting one while also being the guy who's going to guard the opponent's best ball handler that may not be tenable anymore or he's going to suffer in one of those two roles. And Aaron Nesmith can also do that to some degree. Ben Matheran is going to be unleashed a little bit, but this is a group now that I think really is doesn't have quite the amount of passing that they need. I think just like that special style that made them so good that also work better in the playoffs. I'M not sure that they're going to be able to play that way. And then you also throw in the fact that they're not going to have that spacing that they've always had at the five. You know, maybe they close with Toppin and Siakam. I don't see them making a trade to get a better center. Like, I still think Miles Turner, what he did for them was extremely underrated, particularly over the course of regular season. And so, you know, who do they have at center now? Isaiah Jackson and James Wiseman, both coming off torn Achilles and Hoffman, who, who's a nice pickup, but also is not probably physical enough to be a starter. So really what it comes down to, to me, I mean, this kind of feels like a. A mid-30s win team. You know, they still have Seagull, they still have good players, obviously. And if they really push it, I think they could get into, you know, kind of the 40, maybe even low 40s. What's the organizational mindset about this season going to be, though? That's my question, Danny.

Speaker B And that's where Joe Dumars deserves a giant gift basket in certain respects. Because the Indiana Pacers have their own pick unprotected this year. And as we discussed recently with the Miami Heat, it's very different to talk about pick protection with a team that has a high 30s over under than with a team that has a low 40s over under, because this could end up mattering in certain circumstances. And the other big part, and particularly.

Speaker A Because this gap year phenomenon, we've just seen a lot of teams do this. It's a lot easier to go into the tank a little bit when you know you have Hal Burton coming back and how good he's going to be. We'll see. I hope it's going to be good. It's.

Speaker B Here's helping.

Speaker A Yeah, yeah, really. But with both he and Tatum, however, I think it's just getting a high draft pick could be so useful to these guys going forward. And yeah, you know what, if they're within range of a top six seed shirt, they're going to go for it. They've always done that. But if they're, you know, looking at the nine seed, the ten seed, I, I don't. I think they've tasted enough success there. I know they never tank, they never tank, et cetera. But Rick has had plenty of experience doing this in Dallas. And with the promise of sunnier skies ahead next year when Hal Burton returns, I do think if I were running the team, I would be Taking it pretty darn easy.

Speaker B Well, and, and the, the other part of this, and it's a very familiar refrain for longtime listeners for me is when you have a significant injury, it's about overstripping everybody else. But it's also, every subsequent injury matters even more. So if Andrew Nemhard misses time, if TJ McConnell misses time or falls off.

Speaker A For that matter, he's pretty.

Speaker B Or falls off, then, then they're really, really in trouble. And so there are ways that they could go over this. I, I trust Carlisle. I. The way that they play defensively and kind of in. Well, they'll lose some of the transition just because they'll lose Tyrese Halbert. But there are parts of their game that won't be hurt as much, but it's, it's going to be hurt a lot. And I mean the combination, like if this, this would be a line like, you know, I have a lot of faith in the Pacers. I have a lot, I believe in them a lot organizationally. But to lose both Halliburton and Turner and not really replace either of them, that's a lot for any organization to take. And you bring in the other potential incentives that are in play and it just gets a lot harder. So I'm, I'm in under here.

Speaker A Yeah, I see them being below average on both sides of the ball. I would probably give them maybe a little bit better chance at doing that on defense, but their centers are, are so improving. Here's the other thing too. Pascal Siakam, he's been so good for them, but he turns 32 this year. TJ McConnell turns 34. Obi Toppin is most of the guys that are in their mid-20s. Nemhard might be the one guy that I would say has more to give as a. As like moving into a larger role. Nith OB Toppen, I don't see those guys just like revolutionizing their game. Maybe the other guy is Matheran. I just like, yeah, he can score and attack from the second side. I still don't think he has the decision making ability to give him the ball. And yeah, again and Jerus Walker, like not someone that I think is going to take some mega leap. You know, again, maybe they could find a way if Walker can be pretty good, like he'll even play some three and get better defensively. But. And that's where they might have a little bit of a ceiling. But I still don't see them getting in the top 10 on defense. I should have mentioned Tony Bradley is another guy in Their center, Brade. But yeah, I mean none of those guys are. I ranked Jay Huff at 33rd at the center position and I was probably way too high on him relative to anybody else when we did that. You with about a month or so left in the season. So yeah, I think I got to go under here ultimately because I just don't see what gets them to being better than average on either side of the ball. If you're talking about them getting into being a.500, well, stay. I don't think they're going to suck either way. But then again, as I noted, like, I think they could kind of throttle it back down the end. I mean you could also just see them sort of like, all right, we're on track for the 10th seed. We don't really have to try that hard to get the 10 seed. We're going to get the to 10 seed with 36 wins and then we'll also be the 10th seed in the lottery.

Speaker B Very possible we'll stay in the Central division for the next couple teams, but that will continue with the Detroit Pistons. Huge bounce back year for them. They've won 30 additional games from where they were the year before. From 14 to 44 they had the differential of a 45 win team. So it wasn't, you know, just like total, total luck on all that. And their over under expects a small improvement from there, but an actual improvement to 46 and a half. They have to win 47 to go over.

Speaker A Yeah, they certainly. It feels like a team on the rise. Right. And there isn't really anyone on this team that you're thinking should be significantly worse than a year ago. Tobias Harris, I don't think he had some great year for them. I thought he was steady, but I, I mean maybe he falls off at least a little bit and you know, that's kind of about it. I mean they, they got Dennis Schroeder down the end of last year with Jaden Ivey now is a full go in camp. He's ready to resume those duties.

Speaker B I have another big one and this is. And that's Malik Beasley.

Speaker A And yeah, yeah, I'm saying of the holdovers.

Speaker B Oh, of the holdovers. Yes.

Speaker A Yeah. So, so yeah, I guess that, that's sort of my. I mean if you, you can talk about what you think the impact of Beasley's loss is going to.

Speaker B He had this wildly good shooting season. You and I were talking about it a fair amount, but I think some there and so hopefully our listeners got it. But some others might not have. I mean Malik Beasley last year he made 42% of 12 threes per 36 and really like I mean the Pistons last year, it's not like they were world beaters on offense they were 16th but they did really need that kind of volume and success from him. Beasley in terms of the guys who actually played significant minutes like Hardaway Jr. Had 37 on seven per or seven and a half per 36 and then really like almost everybody else was lower volume and of course not the success rate as well. So Beasley is a really hard guy to replace. They brought in Duncan Robinson and Caris levert who aren't you know Robinson shooting is his, is his cause of getting paid 16 million this year but he doesn't quite do it in that way. Levert is a different kind of player at this point in his career and so I think they're really going to miss that. But for me the bigger kind of questionnaire and we plexiglass principle we invoke sometimes though I don't think we've done it either. Over under podcast so far is this JP Bickerstaff did a wonderful job last year. Got them from 25th to 11th on defense and they also helped by Bickerstaff but also by Cade Cunningham moved up to 16th on offense. I agree with the idea that there aren't too many players on this team that are going to be worse and even incremental improvements from the Ron Hollands, the Asar Thompsons, the Jalen Durans of the world makes a big difference. What gives me real pause here in terms of picking this over is how much better will those guys be. But and I'm part of me is like oh you know it was a, it was a different kind of Eastern Conference in some ways last year you had teams like Philly that just kind of ate it almost instantly. And there were some more wins there, but there are going to be some of those wins this year because we already have two massive like season ending injuries in this conference and that doesn't even include Damian Lillard which is functionally a third because he, he's got cut. And so there are more wins in that respect. But as you brought up so well in the Knicks section, that's, that's more, that's a little bit of fool's gold, a little bit of pyrite when it comes to predicting over unders because you play the whole league, you don't just play the injured teams in the East.

Speaker A Yeah, I think if you're Talking about getting a 47 wins, it's difficult to do that without being top 10 on one side of the ball or the other. I would say defense is probably their best chance. I agree at that. Now the other thing that was so good for them was their transition game last year. Malik Beasley was huge for that. Duncan Robinson is just not quite that level of bomber or runner and I also think he brings even more defensive issues than Beasley would. Although they certainly coveted bringing him in, that was quite fortuitous for him that Beasley had the issues that he's had. But as Sar Thompson playing more, Jaden Ivey playing more like I think they'll attack more in transition in a different way and just push the ball down your throat and get to the basket even more. I'm just, you know, I'm wondering what they're going to get from Ivy. Whether he extends or not will be a fascinating question. So I, I, I don't think they're going to have enough talent and enough shooting to get to be a top 10 offense. Like maybe Cade is just going to be so good this year that he gets them there on his own. I don't think he's quite that level yet. And I wonder whether they're going to be so awesome again in transition. I do think that teams especially once they're just more on the scouting report of the league overall what they're trying to do, that teams can kind of catch up to them a little bit there. But defensively is where I think it could happen for them. We'll just have to see Jalen Duran, can he take the next step? He was only 21 last year. Isaiah Stewart was only 23 last year. Asara is 22. Like that's a pretty good defensive foundation and I think like I they'll probably miss Scher a little bit. I don't think they're Duncan Robinson to me is worse than anyone else they had in their perimeter defensive rotation last year. They're also gonna Simone Fontechio did not shoot the ball last year, but he at least could space and now they're going to be replacing him pretty much exclusively with Ron Holland. So I think the offense would be about the same mid pack, maybe slightly below and then it's just a question of the defense and I don't think this could be group is going to get to be just like elite and that's where this has got to get to go over. So I think these guys will be a solid team. Could easily go over as well. They have enough young guys who could all take a leap at one time that it would get pretty interesting. But I, I just don't. I mean, they got Cade Cunningham and then who's their second best player after that? Like, they got good depth, but I don't know how good the balance is. And so that's where I, I end up. I mean, especially Beasley. Just his, that season he had last year.

Speaker B Yeah.

Speaker A Was so great. Like he might have been their second best player last year. And I, Exactly.

Speaker B I was just, I was just going to bring that up. Like. Yeah, we talked about that. We, we thought there were lots of stretchers last year and overall that he was their second best player and he's now not on the team and, and so they have to lean on some different guys and that's, that's, it's a lot to ask. And you know, it's possible that they go over. This is not going to be one of my best bets because I've, I've, I know what they can do and they're, they're. Maybe they'll pull some extra wins at the end of the year if they're pushing and all that kind of stuff. But I just, you know, I think they're, and especially considering the possibility, you know, so like Cade played 70 games last year. He could play more, but I don't think that's a guarantee. Beasley not only did he play great, he played all 82 games last year, only 30 for Ivy. But Ivy wasn't better than Beasley, so we'll have to see where that goes, everyone. So last year for them, Cade played 70, Asar Thompson played 59 and Ivy played 30. But pretty much every other important player for The Pistons played 72 or more. That's hard as an, as an. In the aggregate to necessarily replicate as well. And especially if it's Cade, then that's really hard to do. So I'm, I'm, I'm a real. I'm a somewhat reluctant under, but I, I think I may be a little bit more confident in it than you.

Speaker A Yeah, I just. Malik Beasley basically made these guys a pretty good shooting team by himself. 12.1 for 36, 41.6% from 3. Like they just are not going to be able to replace that Duncan Robinson or no. And even Tim Hardway Jr. Had a. Okay shooting season. He got a lot up. He was shot 37%. They don't really even have like a secondary shooter. And they also played Beasley at Hardway junior Together a fair amount of time. So if they're going to do it offensively this year, like I could even foresee a drop off due to the, the spacing. They're going to have to do it just with relentless attacking of the rim and offensive rebounding and even more transition, but not transition threes just coming down the lane, getting fouled, get dunking on you. And then they'll have to do it by getting way better defensively. And I'm just, I think people are just like, oh yeah, you know, 44 last year. They're a young team, everyone to get better. They're 47 this year. We'll see.

Speaker B The Cleveland Cavaliers last year won 64 games, had the differential of a 63 win team. Their core four in the regular season were very healthy. 71 games for Mobley and Mitchell, 75 for Darius Garland, 82 for Jared Allen. That was partially they're undoing against the Pacers in the second round. And they're over under in part informed by the loss of Ty Jerome and the injuries that they're coming into the season with. The Cavs over under is just 56.5.

Speaker A Yeah, that seems way too low to me now. Maybe there's a thought that they just aren't going to get pushed in the Eastern Conference. I, I definitely think they're going to be worse than last year. I think part of the reason this number is so low though is just that their brand is bad after what happened against Indiana and Chris Fedor and I talked about it quite a bit. I highly recommend you all listen to that podcast because he, he had some fascinating thoughts on what it was that derailed them a year ago. But you know, Darius Garland wasn't healthy. Now he's not gonna be healthy to start the year. He's gonna miss probably the first 15 games. And I think they are clearly going to be a worst regular season team, worst regular season offense because Jerome was unbelievable. And they're also going to be missing Garland and I, you know, if Garland gets back to that all NBA form, it'll be towards the end of the season and Lonzo Ball isn't going to play that much either. And they have a million of these health guys, but at least they have enough of them that you know, if there's a 50% chance one of them could play, then you're, then you're in in. You've got a, a decent possibility. And they also have some deep bench guys like Jalen Tyson, Craig Porter Jr. That I'm kind of interested in as well. But I Think their system is just so good. I think Evan Mobley is so good. Like he's just really underrated still even at this point, like their switching really caused problems for the average team defensively. Like they really won the math battle by quite an amount every single night by switching forcing teams to beat them over the top. And the Pacers could beat that, but not a lot of other teams could. So I, I think I had them for 59 wins. I think this, this may end up being one of my best bets. And it just gets down to the fact that I think this, the way they're coached, their system and then having Mobley there as a rock most nights and Mobley and Allen as well just gives them a high enough floor that they're not going to lose to bad teams.

Speaker B Agreed. And the Cavs last year they were first on offense, eighth on defense. Especially with Garland's situation, they could be worse than first on offense, but I think they can fall down a little bit there and still be above this sort of a line. And you know, last year the team that was closest to a playing at a 56 win pace was the Houston Rockets. They were 12th on offense, both on offense, fourth on defense. And like, I mean they were a little bit worse than this line but I, I think the Cavs will be better than that. And having the two headed monster, even if one of them misses part of the year offensively, that and I mean you could argue they have a two headed monster defensively too. And missing Max Druce with this drone fracture for a lot of the season, that sucks. But they have enough other options to make that work. And Streuss is a good, I think an underappreciated player and a very good one but they have other guys in that space and then the other person who's going to kind of help their, when he's available, help their kind of consistency is Lonzo Ball. Like Lonzo Ball makes good decisions. He's not going to break down the defense in quite the way that Ty Jerome did, but he can help keep things working and help them get more of a defensive identity on the perimeter. Can help some slow some things down and I don't think they'll miss Isaac Okoro, but I don't think they'll miss him that much. And they have a bunch of wing type guys they can try out. Jaylon Tyson I think could end up being one of the reasons that this over happens. Just I don't think they'll need him a ton of the playoffs, but he could end up playing a supplementary creation role. Can do a couple things that I really like so there are enough Cavs guys that can step up that I'm comfortable with that I'm okay with the absences they're coming into the season dealing.

Speaker A Yeah I just don't think they're eight wins worse than last year even though they're I always going to pick a team that won 64 to decline. Next up Chicago.

Speaker B It is the Chicago bulls. They won 39 games last year, had the differential of a 38 win team and their biggest transaction in the last year was in the in mid season when they traded Zach Levine. But in the summer really I mean they didn't do a whole lot. They they re signed Giddey eventually and they swapped Lonzo Ball for Isaac Koro move I deeply criticized at the time but I was stunned that this over under came in at at 33.5. It's if it was a different organization then I I mean I don't think that this is that far from their overall talent level. We'll talk about their kind of offense defense stuff in just but it came up in the discussion of the Sacramento Kings last time. If there is one organization in the entire NBA, maybe in all of North American professional sports as I understand them to be that I trust will go after it unless there is the screamiest of signs not to it is the Chicago Bull. Like that is just what they do. That is what Jerry Reinsdorf wants. That is what those who take his orders have ordered. And so for most teams, you know it's this idea of like if you're close then you'll go under. I don't think that about the Chicago Bulls.

Speaker A I only picked them for 35 wins. I I am going to go over but I have some concerns about them. The biggest of those is regression from Nikola Vucevic who was actually on my most improved discussion. I usually wouldn't go with an old player that certainly one of my most surprising players having his best shooting season at that age really just opened up everything for these guys and they still were effective at after they lost Zach Lavine as well in part because they're going up against a bunch of bad teams and still trying and Josh Giddy was not great the first part of the season. Then they traded lavine, they put the ball in his hands. He was awesome. I don't expect him to repeat that necessarily. I think it was like a 16 and 6 close. Something along those lines that doesn't seem realistic for me. Again I'M also concerned that Kobe White is going to miss camp with the calf injury and unclear if he'll be ready to start the season. That's the hope at this point in time. But I mean he's their best player to me still, Patrick Williams spraining his ankle probably doesn't matter. I don't know how much they're going to play Noah Senge. Buzzelis is pretty clearly just going to start. I just don't know how these guys are going to stop anybody. I you know, Trey Jones is an underrated player. Dude is back from the shoulder issue. They didn't have him down the end of last year, but other than those two guys, they just don't have anyone. I think of as an above average defender who's going to be in a big role unless it's Isaac Okoro and then he's going to really kind of torpedo their offense, especially if he's playing next to Boozelis. So I think these guys are going to be solidly below average on both sides of the ball. Maybe Billy Donovan can juice the pace on the three point attempts and all that and get them to be respectable on offense. I think they're going to be atrocious on defense. I have them as a bottom six defense, bottom seven defense 24th. Donovan usually will like get them to be all right, but they don't really have backup center play that I'm particularly enamored of with Collins. Like they just have a lot of guys who I felt were a little over their heads last year, even if some of them are young. And I don't think that improvement from Boozelis necessarily is going to take them over. So I thought 39 wins was over their heads last year. I'm going to go with 35. I will go with the over but that's team 39 wins sadly will not set a record by being within one win of for a fourth consecutive year.

Speaker B I I toyed with having this as one of my best bets. I don't think it'll be there just because like you please, please do it.

Speaker A Can you please do it just so I can enjoy you having to the Bulls like hope that the Bulls are going to win all year.

Speaker B I mean, yeah, it's. I'll con. It's in consideration. I'm not going to say that I'm gonna we still have some but I.

Speaker A Mean this is actually a good question. You have the spreadsheet in front of you. When's the last time one of us went over on the polls and they actually have gone over a fair number of times.

Speaker B We both went over two years ago and they went over. They went over last year too.

Speaker A Yeah, I know they went over last year. I just did not pick them too. But of course my problem was that I thought they would be saying about their top 10 protected pick and then they fucking traded for it back. So.

Speaker B Yeah. So the only year since 2020 that you and I, either one of us picked the Bulls to go over was 20, 23, 24 where we both predicted it and they did it. My sheet. Oh, we both picked their over in 1920, but that was the COVID year, so we never caught up on it. Oh, and they went under that year. That's right. We. Because we did it based on the season that.

Speaker A Yeah, they didn't even make the bubble that year. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Chicago, they done it. Do a good job with the math. They were. Took the lowest just about percentage of long twos in the league and they had good spacing. They actually finished at the basket actually. Never mind. Not very well.

Speaker B Well, and I mean the bulls finishing, finishing 18th in defense last year is pretty remarkable when you consider there's no.

Speaker A Way they're doing that again.

Speaker B Yeah, they were the luckiest.

Speaker A They do. They'll be a lock for over. I don't know. I. I mean I've been talking about why they're not going to be as good this year, but it's interesting to me like why. I'm trying to understand why this is so low. Like what are people thinking? Is it just they don't levine anymore?

Speaker B Maybe. I mean it is true that Giddy, Kobe, White and Vuch, all Those guys played 70 or more games last year. Giddy 70, Kobe, White 74, Vouch 73. They had role player injuries, but everyone does. And it's. Yeah, it's just, it's low. I. I mean, yeah, they were by the way, in terms of opponent, three point percentage. They were the luckiest team in the NBA. Opponents shot 2% worse from three than average. So you can expect that to regress.

Speaker A Yeah, that's actually. That's a good point. Cause it's not like this isn't one of those teams like the Thunder or the Celtics or the Dynasty warriors are like, oh man, they're just running guys off the line, blocking a bunch of three pointers, et cetera. Like that. That strikes me as pretty lucky. That's an important point to make. Thank you.

Speaker B Yeah. So I, I am going to go over. I don't think it's going to be one of my best bets unless I. I'll save it for fifth if I do it because then you'll just be delighted to end the show. But it's. It's. It's too low a number and it. I'm just. I don't like the Bulls as an organization. I don't like the roster but 33 and a half is just too low.

Speaker A Let's move on now to 27 and a half the over under for the Charlotte Hornets.

Speaker B Charlotte did lose a lot of games due to injury last year. Lamelo only played 47. Brandon Miller only played 27. Mark Williams played half the season. Grant Williams played a quarter of the season. The only of their principal guys the only guy who was remotely healthy was Miles Bridges played 64. Mark Williams is out. They did fix their biggest weakness to my eye which was just lack of people who could create anything. They brought in not only Colin Sexton but they brought in Spencer Dinwiddie. Trey Mann hopefully will be available more this year. So they. They solved that. This was a horrendous team last year. 19 wins. The differential of a 19 win team. The multi time play in team seems pretty far out far in the distance. They. This team went under their over unders which were pretty similar numbers. That was a little bit. It was more like 30 and a half the last couple years. The last two years. So the other thing to consider for me with Charlotte is they have a lot of young guys including they drafted Con Canepel. They had Tijon Salon in the lottery in the lottery last year. I don't know how much Kalk Brenner and Sion James are going to play this year but they have a lot of guys that if the organization you know not Nick Smith obviously more because they cut him but they have a lot of guys that they might want to try and. But the huge thing I brought up all these different things I've been meandering that makes this. That that really makes this hard to buy. The over is the center rotation and they. They just don't really like to lose both Mark Williams and not that he played great for them or anything to lose Nurkic and basically just have an upside down question mark at the most important defensive position and sometimes one of the most important offensive positions is jarring.

Speaker A Upside down question mark. Are any of these guys Spanish?

Speaker B I guess it's. Well I. I figured that they'll have to fill the void with something. I just don't know what that something is.

Speaker A Is Pagasol. Can he come out of retirement for these guys.

Speaker B Yeah, he's better than anyone.

Speaker A They have Mason Plumlee, Musta Diabate, Kalkbrenner. That's. Yeah. I just. I have no understanding of how these guys are going to stop. So this is easily the worst front court defense on paper in the league. I can't think of anybody worse. Can you?

Speaker B No. There. There's the. The set. The Celtics center rotation is bizarre but at least they have guys who can do some things. This rotation is worse.

Speaker A Nemus Kido would is easily like the best of these. I mean unless Kalk Brenner just is only way better. Diabate can do some switching. Unfortunately nobody else on the roster can. That becomes an issue. Yeah, I mean even Washington I think like with Keechon George and Sar. I liked Sar way better than any guys. And, and New Orleans might be close. Sacramento, how bad they're and Sacramento. But I mean even, even Keegan Murray it gives you more like honestly I like Sabonus better defensively than some of these guys. The elites will execute him and play hard. I guess there are some pretty bad defensive front courts out there in the end. Yeah. So like these guys are a bottom five defense and probably bottom three. I just don't see how they get above that level. And Charles Lee, someone that had a good reputation coming in but did not cover himself in glory in any way last year. So to me the question is if they're going to go over this is how good can the offense be? And I want to think about that a little bit more. But part of it too is just that Lamelo is probably going to miss time. Who knows whether he's finally going to get serious. Like I think Con Knippel will make shots. Brandon Miller is back with the wrist from the risk thing. So like they. The one thing you could point to is that they'll probably be an above average shooting team. Well, I don't know if they're above average because last year they were terrible. But they could possibly be above average and at least non terrible as a shooting team. So can they get above the likes of like a Portland or something offensively, maybe even like Chicago? Could they possibly be in that range even. But I. I think to get. For this to go over, they probably need to escape the bottom 10 on one side of the ball or the other. And especially considering Lamelo's health and just what this team has been. The fact Jeff Peterson said before the season that he's still kind of preaching patience and building something sustainable and all that, which to me means they're not exactly pushing. And we talked about the organizational mindset of teams like Indiana and in this instance it seems clear what the organizational mindset is. They would have signed somebody with a pulse at center if they were actually trying to push. So that also says to me that you could easily see them just shutting guys down towards the end. I mean this is one of the four worst teams in the league. I don't see them being a 28 win team. I'm going to go under.

Speaker B I'm going under as well. And it, it could end up being one of my best bets. Because the other thing that could happen this year, I'm not saying it will, is, is that maybe this is also the year that they find a home for Lamelo Ball because they could just lean into it a little bit. The Hornets have their own.

Speaker A It's really hard for me to imagine, like LaMelo Ball is just not. He's not like a mid season trade candidate kind of guy. Right. Like you don't make a trade for someone like him at mid season. Like the type of team I think would trade for him is kind of one that's out of it and just looking to maybe reorient a little bit. Right. Like you can see a team like the Pels trying to trade for him or we had talked about like, like I don't see him. A team trying to pick him up at midseason is the missing piece. It seems more like an offseason.

Speaker B That's logical. And I will also note that the Hornets have their own first round picks moving forward. So they're, they're, they're. If they're bad, the, you know, if they're in this vicinity, they're here. The gravity clearly goes towards maximizing your pick and all that sort of stuff. Their defensive foundation is really bad and their center rotation is one thing, but then they also don't have enough defense on the perimeter to make up for it. They have some capable guys within the rotation, but not enough to build it. And then the other lingering question, and this is partially a Charles Lee question, but it's also partially front office, is how much are they going to lean on the youngest players, whether they're good or not. So Tijon Salon on Knipple and I could see it being like, hey, it's, you know, we're not going to be that great this year anyway. We'll play these that whether they sink or they swim, they're going to be in the rotation. I think that's a reasonable possibility here and even though they I like some of their young guys, that's always hard to overcome and some of the capable vets that they brought in, you know, the Colin Sexton trade, I think that's going to mostly be about getting value for him going in and coming out somehow rather than him helping them a lot. Because if he's helping them a lot then they'll trade him because then they'll try to get something for him.

Speaker A Yeah. Like the one thing I might say is they have enough backcourt depth now even with Spencer Dinwiddie in there too, that they're not going to be in theory like going the Damien Bond, Nick Smith Jr. Route and just being totally hopeless at the end of the season like it would just now. Like you said, maybe sex and gets bought out, maybe he gets traded. Dinwiddie is on a minimum. He could get moved to a contender if he shows like he can do anything. That was kind of a curious signing. I never really understood how he ended up there. So I, I could. You could see maybe that they're just not gonna be so terrible. But this isn't a 23 win over under 27 and a half so.

Speaker B Right.

Speaker A Yeah. Let's get to Brooklyn here. And 28.5 is the over under Sean Marks has finally built the team that everyone thought he had built last year. Was is my initial think. I, I think this is a well set line. This is their last as everyone knows. But just to remind them this is their last year that they had their pick before they again go into having a swap with Houston in 27 they only got the number eight pick. They got Jaeger Joman who is now out with still recovering from a torn planner fascia suffered over the summer. Unclear if he'll be ready to start the season. They do have Michael Porter Jr. He's probably not as good as Cam Thomas, probably not for this team. I mean he's going to shoot a lot that'll be interesting. But certainly again if he shows some sort of ability to do anything, he'll be moved or certainly shut down by the end of the season if needed. Nick Claxon is feeling better apparently after a back issue. But I. Is he going to be good? I don't know. Like we. We definitely in Jordy Fernandez we trust as far as like playing getting a little defense out there. But I may end up going over just because it's such so low. But I expect them to be just as awful as everyone thought they'd be last year.

Speaker B I should be, you know Burned and shy about Brooklyn. I believe in Jordy Fernandez as a coach, but I believe that Sean Marks has built a roster that is almost Jordy proof where they are going to be leaning. So much of their creation is on guys that A, are too young to usually be good and B, I don't actually think are good like that. It's, it's even that where Joman was one of my, I was lowest on him relative to both the consensus and where he was picked.

Speaker A Yeah. And also the fact that he's missing camp is not great either. Yeah, he's not going to hit the ground right running. Even if the. He worked.

Speaker B And the players on the, the players on the Nets that I like the best, like Heywood Highsmith, I think can be a successful player on a good team. I don't think he'll be here very long.

Speaker A Stay tuned till a couple months in when he's traded.

Speaker B Exactly. And then you know, Claxton. So there's a way you could kind of talk about them in parallel of the Utah Jazz where it's like, okay, you know, both those teams have, these have a couple of established veteran players. Porter Jr. Maybe you could say is the loose parallel to Larry Markkanen. Claxton's the loose parallel to, to Walker Kessler. But I believe that the Nets and both teams have coaches I respect. Both the Nets players I think are worse than their Jazz equivalents. And then more importantly for me, the rest of it is they're less than, they're less talented, less dangerous than the Jazz guys overall. And Brooklyn has these abundantly clear incentives given that they don't control their own pick next year. And not only that, it's a swap. It's a swap with Houston. So it's even, it's even a crazier bar in terms of what they're probably going to actually get. And so yeah, it's, it's a pretty clear incentive. This is so low. Like I, I wish this had been 22 and a half and it could have just hammered it. Made it, made it, made it one of my best bets they could do this. But I mean they're going to give. So Cam Thomas, you know, signed his qualifying offer but has, you know, doesn't have a ton of equity within it. That's the nature of signing a qualifying offer. Nolan Traore, Joman, Ben Sarof, potentially like a lot. Like if they're giving, putting the ball in those guys hands a lot, this offense is going to be abysmal. They don't have the defensive chops to overcome that they don't have the defensive chops to set up a transition game. Not that I even necessarily believe a ton in it. See I. I'm an under here. It's a low. It. This team is just straight up bad like and they don't have some of the stuff that the Jazz do and the line is too higher which is significant.

Speaker A I think I'll go over because again 20 and a half is just a really low line. They just are not. You're generally. Even if a team is the worst team in the league, you're probably a decent bet at times for going over them. And these, these guys will be right up there. But like I have them for as the worst offense in the league. I think they're number 30. They. They probably. They have no passing on this team other than the three point guards that they drafted who are all going to be atrocious. I'm not counting Kyra Bufkin Jr. In that either. Kobe Buffkin got salary dump from Atlanta to Brooklyn and yeah I don't think he's so I'm. And Cam Thomas, who knows if he can even stay healthy. Same with Porter Jr. Like, like they have some guys like I think their defense could actually be semi respectable. Right. Like if it's a point guard. Cam Thomas, Porter, Jeff maybe not like Highsmith and Nick Claxton are actually their only good decent defense like Sire Williams. Give him a little bit of something new. Maybe he takes a step forward. Deron Sharp I think will be better this year than he was last year. He's back. But yeah, I think like I think their defense could possibly escape the bottom five. I don't think their offense can but if their defense even could do that. And Jordy is a good coach. Yeah, I, I think they're. I don't know how exactly how many wins they're going to pick them for, but it'll probably be more than 20 and a half. Lot of disagreements here. Let's move on to our next team. The Boston Celtics.

Speaker B Yeah and the Celtics without Jason Tatum this whole year due to a torn Achilles and having made significant moves to get below the second apron and both of us theorized potentially below the tax eventually. The Celtics are a little confounding for me because they have a. They have a very good coach in Joe Mazzullo that we haven't seen in this sort of a circumstance before. And they have a lot of the players who were important in their success. Jalen Brown is available. Derrick White is available. Peyton Pritchard is available, but all of them are going to be in a different situation than they were before because not only is Tatum gone, but Al Horford is gone and Luke Cornett is gone. And so it's a lot to make up. So my first thought when I saw this line of 40, 41 and a half was, oh, it's an over. And then I started thinking about, well, how are they going to win games night in and night out. I brought up their center rotation a little bit when we were talking about some of the other teams, but Nemius, Kata and potentially like, I mean I really like Chris Boucher, but I don't think that he's going to solve all of their problems. Like they, their center and point guard are often the most important positions in the NBA and they're well below average in both of those at the same time.

Speaker A Why I ended up with the under here, I picked him for 38 when Noah and I did the show well, I just felt like Jaylen Brown and Derrick White were not going to be pushed hard by this organization this year and they're really, really reliant on those guys and on both sides of the ball as well. Those guys are going to be asked to move into much bigger offensive roles and they still kind of need them to be what they were defensively a year ago. So yeah, like if they really pushed everybody also if Anthony Simon stayed on the team the whole year, I think that's pretty unlikely that he's going to do that either. I mean they're going to in almost all likelihood, I would say get out of the tax, try to reset that repeater tax clock as best they can. And trading Simons for someone who makes a lot less doing even a couple of stair step trades or just straight up dumping Sam Houser into somebody's mid level are kind of the ways to do that. They're. I think they're about 12 million over right now. Again, just. And Tatum's talking about maybe coming back, maybe coming back. That's. I don't think that's a smart idea. I think like these guys may are competitors and they have a good culture and Joe Missoula is a good coach. But I think you're. Especially if White or Brown misses some time early. Brown is coming off of surgery. Derrick White is in his early 30s now. They're just going to be like, you know, we're going to run these guys into the ground to get to 44 wins and the play in when Jason Tam's coming back next year and we think we can contend. I just don't. I think whatever their intentions are now, I think even Brad Stevens, who I consider a relatively honorable competitor as these things go, they're just going to get there and be like, why are we doing this? What is the point of this? Right? And, you know, maybe Luca Garza and Josh Meinek can emerge and Baylor Shire Main could be good as well and they get some unexpected contributions. They're like, this could go over for sure. But I, I just think it's, the writing will be on the wall at some point and particularly if White or Bron misses time or doesn't play back to backs or just doesn't play 38 minutes a game, they're going to be pretty limited. You mentioned the big man rotation as well. I think they're, they're below average on defense. I don't think they're a top 10 offense and I think they have their pick that could be a great asset for them going forward. I think the, the downward gravity will hit them eventually. See, I, I had 38 wins for them, so this may end up being one of my best bets.

Speaker B There's a lot of gravity pulling in favor of the under here, especially the gap year concept. And you brought this up with the Pacers, but they've had so much success that I can imagine not being particularly enchanted with being the seven seed, the eight seed. And it could even be they do the thing that we've discussed a few times of like they're, they're lingering in the picture, but they don't push for the plane and get in anyway where they're just kind of in that area. I think that's possible. They could do that at under.500, I think in the east this year. So, yeah, I'm going, I'm going under as well. I don't yet know whether it'll be one of my best bets, but I am going under. One team left, and that is the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks last year won 40 games. They have been in the vicinity of 500 a whole lot recently. But they added both Kristaps Porzingis and Nikhil Alexander Walker losing Karis Levert and Clint Capella. And their over under reflects their successful off season. Though one of their best moves isn't really a factor in this. Over under. That's the trade with the Pels and it is 47.5.

Speaker A Ultimately, I went under on this. I think it was by. Let me double check what I had. I had 45 for these guys. Yeah. So I'm, I'm pretty significantly under. I just, I think if Porzingis were playing the way he played two years ago and you could count him to play 65 games, I would say over. I do have concerns about their spacing still. I, they have not put it together at the level of a top 10 defense yet. I think these guys could go over. They're very talented. They have some young guys who could pop for sure. Jaylen Johnson also seems to never make it through the year healthy and he's maybe their most important player still. So I, I like a lot of the guys. I think Akongu had a really underrated close to last season. But for a group that I haven't seen come together at this level to be a 48 win type of team, like, I don't think they've ever gotten to 48 in the trey Young era. And I think they've had teams that had more talent than this one or at least that had better fitting talent. And we were talking about a team that could be a top five offense. Like, they just don't have the shooting for that to me. So I'm going to go with a, A, an under here because I'm just. The proof of concept is not quite there yet. I, I love their offseason. They did a great job getting that pick. They have a lot of talent. It could fit together really well. Also, like, is Trey Young gonna have the season he had last year? Is he gonna have a season he had three years ago and be really, you know, one of the better offensive players in basketball? Like, he just wasn't able to be efficient last year. So I'm ultimately going to go under. What do you think?

Speaker B I'm under 2. And the other component that I want to add in is I'm very concerned about their supplemental creation. Trae Young has to be a great version of himself to, to really push this and also like his, his contractual situation could be a part of this as well. But while Dyson Daniels and Nikhil Alexander Walker are both players that I like, that isn't their biggest strength. And so it isn't just if Trae Young misses time. It's in the non trey minutes. It's in just kind of the ebb and flow of the season. They have a lot of guys I like and Reese Sachet could take a step forward. I wouldn't be surprised if he did. And they have, they have depth to cover up some of the weaknesses. I mean, having Porzingis and Ana Kongwu is a really nice Luxury because they have enough guys, but they don't really have enough fours outside of Jalen Johnson, who has had some availability concerns. Asa Newell could be that guy, but probably isn't just yet. And so they're. They're well positioned in certain ways, but I don't think they're well positioned in enough. And this line is just a little bit. I need to be more confident in them to hit 48. If this was 45 or 44, then we'd be having a different conversation, but we're not.

Speaker A All right, should we do a full recap here?

Speaker B Yeah, I think the way to do this is I'll go through our disagreements first, and then I'll go through. Then I'll just say specifically the ones that we aligned on. So disagreements. We'll start with the west, because it was longer ago. Dallas, you went over. I went under at 40 and a half. Lakers 48 and a half. I went over. You went under. OKC 62 and a half. You went under. I went over. Sacramento, 35 and a half. You went under. I went over.

Speaker A Yeah. And then in the East, Brooklyn, 20 and a half. I was over and you were under. Miami 37 a half. I was over and YOU were under. Orlando, 50 and a half. I was over AND you were under. Toronto, 38 and a half. I was over. You were under. Washington, 21 and a half. Oh, that's not a disagreement. I was over on Washington.

Speaker B Oh, okay.

Speaker A Wait, I thought you were under. You were under.

Speaker B Oh, I flipped them. Apologies.

Speaker A Yeah, yeah. Okay.

Speaker B That also means that I'm under on 13 of the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference.

Speaker A Seems like a lot.

Speaker B It does.

Speaker A Yeah. How. How many overall overs and unders do we have?

Speaker B I have 20 unders and 10 overs.

Speaker A Yeah, I guess all of our. Our five east disagreements, I went over on all of them and you were under on all of them. You're going to be watching a lot of Eastern Conference basketball this year at the 4 o' clock Pacific. Fire it up, baby. Get a little whiz. Hornets at four.

Speaker B Let's. Let's go to our best bets. That's always, always fun. Or do you want to just go through our agreements first?

Speaker A No, no, that's fine. We don't do that. We could do our best bets. I will go first. My absolute best bet. Utah, over 18 and a half.

Speaker B My best bet is the warriors, over 46 and a half.

Speaker A Okay, next one for me. San Antonio, under 44 and a half.

Speaker B I will go with the Knicks, under 53 and a half.

Speaker A Let's see what are some of my biggest differences from the actual over. Under. Memphis over. Over 40 and a half.

Speaker B I'm considering that one too, but I'm gonna go with Cleveland's over as my number three. 56 and a half.

Speaker A So Golden State, I picked him for 50. That's a. A three and a half win difference. Toronto, I picked for 42. That is also a three and a half win difference. I don't have that many unders this year that I'm loving. I think Toronto. This is. This is a disagreement. Joe. We go.

Speaker B I like it.

Speaker A Over 38 and a half.

Speaker B I was hoping at least one of us would pick one. I. You said you don't have a lot of unders that you're loving. I have one more and that's The Charlotte under 27 and a half.

Speaker A I am. I was thinking about that. I was thinking about that. So still candidates for me. Dallas over 40 and a half. Golden State over 46 and a half.

Speaker B I would enjoy you picking two disagreements, but you can pick whatever one you want.

Speaker A Yeah. I'm thinking a little bit about Miami now. I'm gonna go with the Boston under.

Speaker B That's a totally reasonable one. I'm torn between the Boston under and the. And the spurs under. You've already picked both of those going into this. I actually was expecting to do San Antonio's under because in part it's the one I most want to be wrong on. And so it would take the sting out if San Antonio is. If San Antonio is great.

Speaker A I. I don't want to be wrong on that because I just think that, like, the way they've been building, it just doesn't make sense. Right. Like. Like they're. I think if it. They go over. Yeah. I mean, it would be awesome if Victor was just that good like that. And that's how. So that would be exciting. But I'm also just worried about the spurs and the way they're building around Wembanyama overall. So him being awesome would still just give me even more pause about that. But I'm. And I mean, they've gotten a lot of lottery luck at this point, but they just had all this, like, weird lack of shooting on this team. Yeah. Bothers me. They may be able to fix it.

Speaker B Eventually, but I am going to go with the Boston under. There are just so many things pulling that direction and I. I think Missoula is one hell of a coach. I think that he could pull this out. But the. Not only the deficiencies in the rotation now, but but that they're not going to be incentivized to fix those this year. Like the idea of if you had to guess whether this team is going to get more talented or less talented from now until the deadline, the answer is less. And when you add in injuries and everything else and being judicious, it's. I think it's the right.

Speaker A So let me ask you this. We can close on this question. Which of our disagreements are you feeling most confident on and least confident on?

Speaker B Most confident on the Thunder Rover? I. It's. I can't.

Speaker A That's the one I'm feeling least confident on.

Speaker B Least confident. I mean considering I originally had it logged that I had the over for the Wizards and you had the under and then we switched it. I think it should because I, I logged it wrong.

Speaker A It probably you could change it if you want to. You're not locked in.

Speaker B I'll think about it. I think it might be Miami. Like I was as I said I was going to pick their over until like the Tyler hero stuff got clarified on media day and that's just, that's just cons that's given me a little bit of the willies. I'm most excited about the Toronto one though because it's just like you, it's probably our biggest disagreement in terms of a team evaluation as well this year. So it kind of. It's appropriate that it's also an over under disagreement.

Speaker A Sack is kind of an interesting one too. 35 and a half and you know.

Speaker B The sack one, it's going to be come down to like the last week of the season and we're just going to be. We're. You and I are just going to be obsessing over it and then we'll only talk about it the one time on the pod. Actually no, we'll talk about it all the time on the pod. One of my. What. How am I diluting myself into thinking we won't?

Speaker A All right, well this is fun. I always love doing this with you and everyone else. Stay tuned for more of our Dunk down prime season outlook series. We got two weeks basically before the start of the season. Two and a half weeks. So this is. It's getting down to crunch time and the season will soon be upon us. Hope you'll join us for it on Dunktown Prime.

Eastern Conference Over/Unders 2025-26

Interactive Transcript

Topics Covered

Related Episodes

Europa Universalis 5 Review

Happy Hour 562- She don't know who I is.

Hour 2: Friday Football Forecast

Game Scoop! 832: Our Favorite PS5 & Xbox Games

Share Episode