DFS MVP Week 5 w/ Neil Orfield, Davis Mattek, and John Breslin

Interactive Transcript

spk_0 All right, we're live. Welcome everybody to the

spk_0 four for four DFS MVP podcast. I am your host and producer extraordinaire.

spk_0 John Brezel, you may know me as scroll patrol.

spk_0 joined by Neil Orrfield and Davis Maddick.

spk_0 Buy weeks start this week. So Pat Karane is on the buy.

spk_0 How was everybody's week four?

spk_0 Man, great. Go ahead.

spk_0 I needed that final 49ers drive to end in a passing or rushing touchdown for Brock

spk_0 Perty and I would have won the $33 on Fandall. Instead of scoring a touchdown,

spk_0 he fumbled the ball, which also lost me two points, which was a pay drop from fourth to seventh,

spk_0 I think. Better than my week. I mean, you at least had a sweat. John, you had a sweat also,

spk_0 it sounds like I was winning the $250 on Fandall.

spk_0 Right. Not winning. I think I was like, you know, fourth place for like $50,000.

spk_0 It pays out to 300 or something to first place. I think it was too too at well.

spk_0 It screwed me over, but it wasn't really at well because nobody had at well.

spk_0 It was, but I got passed by all these. Stafford Puka teams. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

spk_0 Yeah, it was probably all the people attaching Stafford to Puka and too too at well does me in.

spk_0 But we are on to week five. So we've got a 10 game slate. You know, we've got, as always,

spk_0 you know, some high totals, some big spreads, you know, the lion standing out there with a 30 point

spk_0 implied point total, but probably not going to see that much ownership. So we'll start with the

spk_0 game environments and Neil will start with you. What game environments are catching your eye this week?

spk_0 Yeah. There are several pretty interesting ones here. The Cincinnati Detroit one is pretty

spk_0 obvious because Detroit has a 30 implied team total. It's just a matter of like canned Cincinnati

spk_0 keep it close. And if they can, I think that one stands out as a game that could be really fun.

spk_0 I'm really into the Washington Chargers game. I think in particular, the Chargers side,

spk_0 just because Washington has been really bad against stopping passing game. So I'm really

spk_0 interested in the Chargers passing game in particular, but I think that game environment stands out as

spk_0 one that can be fun. Anytime Dallas is on the slate, they're going to be one of the game environments

spk_0 that I want to target. And then Miami Carolina is one that, you know, neither team has a super high

spk_0 implied team total, but it's a really close spread, really bad defense as I think that one,

spk_0 kind of a wide range of outcomes. And I like leaning on those kind of crappy game environments where

spk_0 there could be some really fun fantasy goodness there. So this week again, we see every game with

spk_0 a total below 50 points. We've had a couple of 50 pointers out there, but like the games, I think

spk_0 with the highest total are the, sorry, the, you know, the Raiders and the Colts. And then we're

spk_0 seeing Detroit and Cincinnati, but it's, you know, it's a massive spread and favor of Detroit. And

spk_0 I think third is Washington and Chargers. You know, Davis, what are you looking at in terms of the

spk_0 game environments? You know, I'm kind of thinking about it in the sense of like, what is the game

spk_0 environment that's marginal that people are into and seeing how it goes poorly. I think it's

spk_0 pretty obvious how the Jets and Cowboys game can go poorly, which is that the Jets succeed with

spk_0 their service Academy offense. They had one drive that was 10 minutes in the game against Miami.

spk_0 I'm not if you, so they have two drives that last 10 minutes.

spk_0 Dak doesn't get their pickings doesn't get there. Maybe Breeze gets their fields probably doesn't

spk_0 get there. Garrett Wilson probably doesn't get there. Javante doesn't get there. It like nukes

spk_0 the field and the Cowboys can easily give up to 15 play scoring drives.

spk_0 Yeah. We're seeing some like spread out ownership this week, but it does seem like the Jets are

spk_0 getting a ton of ownership. I think some of it is pricing and like we just all watch Justin

spk_0 Field like break the Monday night two gamer or the showdown or whatever you were playing on Monday

spk_0 night, right? Like Justin Field is capable of getting those like 50 yard rushing touchdowns,

spk_0 which is break everything. But the Jets are the underdog here. Like they're the home underdog

spk_0 against Dallas. And that is such a bad sign against the Dallas defense being being the underdog.

spk_0 And then it's a little bit hard to have, you know, total confidence in the Cowboys having this standout

spk_0 offense on the road against the Jets. And so that is like that's a half the value for the entire game.

spk_0 Trying to because it projects well, but I'm like damning it with bait praise and all of my written

spk_0 comments. Well, the projections are making some pretty big assumptions. They're giving a lot of

spk_0 the work that Braille and I was getting straight to breeze and not mitigating a ton of it there.

spk_0 They're also like, I mean, this is just the way projections work is it's feeding a higher degree

spk_0 of Justin Fields passing efficiency than he's shown this year for the Jets because of the

spk_0 because of the matter. A lot of ways that game fails, I think. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, it's a juicy running

spk_0 back position with a bunch of injuries. And we also like one of the factors, I just say like

spk_0 beyond game environments, one of the overriding things on the slate to overriding things, one,

spk_0 running back injuries like continue. And also like, you know, these injuries were not like

spk_0 placed in necessarily because they happened on Monday like Monday night. Obviously, I'd

spk_0 Grayland Allen went down, Tyree Kill went down. And then we also have like Christian McAfry and

spk_0 Pukin and Kuwait off the slate. They played last night, both put up their typical games.

spk_0 You know, and so that's something we have to consider. Right. We're getting these value running

spk_0 backs. We usually we take the value and we go to spend up on Christian McAfry or Pukin. But now

spk_0 they're off the slate. Neil, why don't you chime in, you know, thoughts on the slate as a whole?

spk_0 I mean, I think there's like kind of a tear break for me. I think there's a top three running backs

spk_0 who look great in Jonathan Taylor, Devon HN and Jameer Gibbs. They're all going to get a ton of

spk_0 ownership. You know, so no, no McAfry and Pukin. But Devon HN at 7300 against Carolina seems

spk_0 kind of insane to me. It feels almost like McAfry asked where the price is just wrong. Again,

spk_0 this is one where like you could see it going wrong just because maybe they don't move the ball

spk_0 at all. Like we saw Carolina shut out Atlanta. So I still think of them as being a, you know,

spk_0 bottom tier defense. But they have at least succeeded once this year and totally shut it out

spk_0 and opponent. But I get 7300 given the passing game volume we expect from Devon HN. He's my

spk_0 101. Then you've got Gibbs against Cincinnati who just can't stop anybody. Score on them however

spk_0 you want. And we don't really know how Detroit is going to choose to score on Cincinnati, but it

spk_0 would be pretty surprising if they don't score one of the players who's going to score against Cincinnati.

spk_0 David Montgomery. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think I would bet David Montgomery minus a thousand to score

spk_0 an anytime touched out in this game. Is that narrative based or just double double.

spk_0 Double. The narrative. So if you guys assume everyone knows by now, but David Montgomery's from

spk_0 Cincinnati, his sister had a horrible accident and your go hasn't watched him play. It's going to

spk_0 be the first time she's seen him play Dan Campbell of all coaches who would ever change play calling

spk_0 for a narrative. I would put him number one in my power rankings. But more importantly,

spk_0 and this is stuff you have to start contextualizing in the middle of the season,

spk_0 particularly when all the totals are the same. The Bengals defensive players have just straight up

spk_0 quit in each of the last two games because they look over their sideline. They see Jake Browning and

spk_0 Zach Taylor arguing with each other. They see they're like, there's what are we doing out here?

spk_0 Our coach is not putting us in. We literally cannot win these games. What's the point? And the Lions,

spk_0 I pulled this up on my show earlier. Just in the last calendar year, they have five games of 40 or

spk_0 more points scored, which is by even more than the bills because the bills, the Ravens, these teams

spk_0 shut it down in the fourth quarter. They're just happy to see the clock out. And that is not the way

spk_0 the Lions play, which makes them extra unique for fantasy football. Yep, love that.

spk_0 Drafting sports book, Demiard Gibbs minus 240 score touchdown, David Montgomery 195.

spk_0 Actually, I'm one Rossing Brown also is negative. Negative 105. I don't think you usually see

spk_0 three players from the same team with my score touchdown. But maybe you'll have value on the David

spk_0 Montgomery there at minus 195. Don't always cover the betting angles on this one on the show, but

spk_0 this one maybe worth considering. I mean, he's just going to, I guess I can't guarantee he's going

spk_0 to score. Obviously, what I can guarantee is that his coaches are going to very much try and put

spk_0 him in a position to score. Yeah, I see. And he's not getting a ton of ownership. So that's the

spk_0 other thing with Dave Montgomery. He will. He will though. He probably just seemed a little bit, but

spk_0 not I don't think I don't think I'll get to double digits. I think there's too much running back

spk_0 value for him. Depends on the contest. Depends on the contest. In like a millemaker. I don't

spk_0 think he gets to double digits. Yeah, because we have so much running back value that it's like,

spk_0 yeah, we've got this fun narrative, but also we've got Rashad White and Rico Doudel and

spk_0 Maridim Mercado slash Michael Carter and all these other options to go to. So he's one of my favorites

spk_0 of that group. Yeah, I guess just continuing. So the those are the three pay up options that I like

spk_0 the best. You can also throw in Seiko and Barclay Derick Henry in there. I did a show with

spk_0 mythology earlier this week. He made the point that Derick Henry kind of interesting from the

spk_0 perspective of Houston's defense is very good, but also they're like small and fast. So like,

spk_0 I don't know how that is going to affect Derick Henry. Because Derick Henry is just going to be

spk_0 able to bully them. We're just going to see a million stiff arms and they're, you know, too

spk_0 health for the for the Houston defenders. I don't know, or they're just so fast that like they're

spk_0 going to be able to keep up with them better than most defenses. I'm not sure, but a little bit

spk_0 interesting, but I'm generally though, we're just looking at awesome value here. Breeze Hall 5600

spk_0 against this Dallas defense. Tjivant, I mean, we've got some mid range with Tjivant,

spk_0 Aachen, Genti, but then Rico Doudel is 4300 really stands out now as cash game played, great

spk_0 play against this Miami defense with Tuba Hubbard out. We've got Dave Montgomery. We've got Woody

spk_0 Marx at 5400 seemingly taken over that backfield against the Baltimore defense. That is, I think

spk_0 the worst in the league in terms of scheduled adjusted fence sequence allowed. And in particular,

spk_0 through the air where where Woody Marx really thrives, you've got Demar Kato versus Michael Carter.

spk_0 Michael Carter says he's the starter. He's only 4,000. We just have a lot of awesome, awesome value

spk_0 on this slate. It was what are your thoughts on the running backs and the value running backs,

spk_0 I guess in particular. And we should touch on that Arizona situation because I think there is some,

spk_0 I don't think people are going to end up going there because there's not a lack of clarity,

spk_0 between Demar Kato and Michael Carter. Probably Michael Carter getting the early rushes and

spk_0 Demar Kato handling the passing game work. But yeah, your thoughts on the value running backs.

spk_0 My thoughts are, is that a minimum of one of them is going to end up being a total sinkhole

spk_0 in your lineup. A minimum of one will be the, I knew I should have faded the chalk,

spk_0 this guy sucks. He doesn't catch any pass. He got six points. If you made me guess which one it

spk_0 is right now, I would actually probably guess Mr. Mr. R. Dowdell because he is attached to like

spk_0 just the worst overall functioning offense. The Panthers could just totally lay an egg in any given

spk_0 week. The, I suppose the interesting thing particularly about him though is that he was handling the

spk_0 goal line work anyway, which is part of the reason why Hubbard had not been projecting very well.

spk_0 Hubbard has not gotten a touch inside the five yard line this year for the Panthers just by

spk_0 getting bailed out with the two receiving touchdowns. My guess again would be that Trevor ETN

spk_0 is probably not the, he made a horrible special teams gaff and week two and hasn't really played

spk_0 much on offense since then. In terms of preference, I think I'm going to run a really narrow

spk_0 core of running back this week would not surprise me if amongst my, you know, I hand-build about 10

spk_0 teams on Fandall and DraftKings and it wouldn't surprise me if I do not play anyone other than Rico,

spk_0 Rashad White, JT Hane, Breeze and then the two guys I would consider to loosely be part of my pool

spk_0 would be GenT and Camera. It really feels like a Camera spot to me because that's a pace up game.

spk_0 Both these teams are top five in pace right now, but it's got a low total which tells me that the

spk_0 the odds makers are looking at this spot saying these teams are going to run the ball so much.

spk_0 They're just going to be body blows after body blows and I do not think Camera is washed. Maybe

spk_0 maybe bad take, but I'm on the side of him not being washed. Does it even matter against the

spk_0 Giants is the real question? I like the yeah Camera actually somebody had been drafting a lot in

spk_0 DraftKings so totally with you on Camera. Did you not mention Gibbs in your core? Are you saying

spk_0 yes? Yes, Gibbs in Montgomery. I would almost maybe, I want to ask John about this.

spk_0 Because you play so many teams, do you ever do something like I'm just not making a team that

spk_0 doesn't have a line on it? It's got to be a line on every team. Very rarely, but sometimes I do

spk_0 and it's often been like Ravens, right? I've said I think last week I made like a flag plant on

spk_0 a show as I was thinking around like every lineup should have like Derek Henry or Lamar Jackson.

spk_0 I think the Ravens went out there and just trounced somebody. So yeah, it's trounced somebody is like

spk_0 oh, I actually should have implemented that rule. So I'll do that sometimes and you could maybe

spk_0 argue like this week, you should give consideration to like John at the tailor if you're not playing

spk_0 Daniel Jones as your quarterback. Maybe more of like a single entry or a smaller field thing.

spk_0 Like try to account you try to account for the high implied point total teams like somehow.

spk_0 And yeah, the Lions have the highest implied point total 30 points. Like you know, they're going

spk_0 to score points and they are also like, there were one of those teams that will like keep the foot

spk_0 on the gas. If they feel they need to or just in general. And so you've got, yeah, you've got the

spk_0 David Montgomery narrative and you just, you know, they're going to put a point against the Bengals.

spk_0 And so like there, there is an argument like you should have a Detroit player on, on each roster.

spk_0 The problem is like, what if it's one Montgomery, one touchdown a Montgomery, one touchdown

spk_0 against right one touchdown to like Laporta one touchdown to James Williams or Monross St. Brown.

spk_0 You know, and Jared Goffney gets three touchdowns and they've suddenly put up 35 points,

spk_0 but they don't really have a usable fantasy score on the whole roster.

spk_0 Montgomery's cheap enough that he scored a touchdown like he's pretty likely to be somebody you want.

spk_0 I was going to say he Laporta and Jamo can probably all just about be in a winning lineup with one

spk_0 touchdown. Obviously St. Brown and Gibbs camp. Yeah. Jameson, it depends on the length of Jameson's

spk_0 touchdown, right? But you know, yeah, if he's adding one of those 60 orders that he used about

spk_0 4,900, that's that's clearly paying off his price tag. And I will say that the players on teams

spk_0 like this where they spread the ball out and they're, you know, if they're expected to be a high

spk_0 scoring team, I feel like they're always under projected because you have like the projections

spk_0 have the split stop up, but it's not necessarily going to get totally split up, right? Like when the

spk_0 game actually actually starts or maybe they just go out there and put up 50 points. It's like the

spk_0 lions, I think are going to be under owned. It's just because people are looking at the projections

spk_0 or even if they're handled and right, they're just scared to like to make a decision on like which

spk_0 lion is going to score the points? Yeah, these spots that I often manipulate in in an optimizer or

spk_0 I haven't really, it'll be interesting in the sims if I need to manipulate it because the sim should

spk_0 account for like the range of outcomes for players. But often I'll just say like, yeah, I actually want

spk_0 more than like 100% of this split. Like I want to like assume I don't know which of these, you

spk_0 know, if it's two running backs and you know, they're kind of project for 50 50 split, but they're

spk_0 both in a great spot at a great price. You use their their medium project and it's like, yeah,

spk_0 you're not going to get too much of either. But like I think probably one of them's going to get 70%

spk_0 of the workers, 65% of the work and suddenly I'm going to want that one. So then I take a

spk_0 disproportionate amount and just say, I don't know which one it's going to be, but I'm going to be

spk_0 overweight on both of them. I kind of think that could be this spot for for me with the lions this

spk_0 week. Well, I like Dave was saying like a lion and every lineup make some sense. They're

spk_0 ways for it to fail, but like there's also a lot of ways for it to go really well.

spk_0 Yeah, I think rules like that actually help with the idea that like the roster spot

spk_0 cost something, right? Because like we're going to see high ownership on a Rico doubt. He's playing

spk_0 for the Panthers. He's average like three yards per rush. You know, he's going to cost a roster

spk_0 spot, even though he's like a great value at 4200 or whatever, whatever he is 4300. Like that,

spk_0 it's still costing you a running back spot where that you could be using on on junior gifts, right?

spk_0 Like you obviously would have to make sacrifices somewhere else in your lineup. Like if you put in a

spk_0 rule like that, like I won at least one line, you know, no matter what, then that that kind of

spk_0 overcomes that like projection optimization hurdle, I guess. Yeah. All right, let's move on to

spk_0 the quarterback position. We're actually kind of skipped quarterback. Davis, we'll start with you and

spk_0 you know, kind of ties into the to the game environments as well. You know, the running backs are

spk_0 kind of stealing the show with the value and the injuries. If you're you're starting with a quarter

spk_0 back, you know, who are the names that you're looking at? Uh, Jaden Daniels, I really like fields.

spk_0 It's really tough when you don't play like if I'm a meeing, I'd be like, oh, I'm going to be

spk_0 under on fields. But like, I don't know if I do the spy and then I do the single under his on

spk_0 fandal. It's like, okay, well, if I do one of those teams as fields, then that probably is just about

spk_0 equal with the field. But I just see how this goes poorly for him so clearly in my mind's eye. Like,

spk_0 oh, he doesn't get a rushing touchdown. Um, he gets a bad, bad, it ball interception. Like it's just,

spk_0 I've done the, the fields thing is so funny. He's always just like an elite play when he's not

spk_0 chalky because I mean, we've seen it twice already this year where he just turns a corner and it's like,

spk_0 all right, well, you just got a 55 year rushing touchdown out of your quarterback. But he is a bad

spk_0 passer, right? He just is. He, he, he's always a beat slow. Um, so I probably am going like, I'm

spk_0 going to do some Daniel Jones with Pittman Jr. and Warren. How about Jaden Daniels right now

spk_0 projecting to be on like 5% of rosters, you know, like crazy. Uh, that's like a great game in a

spk_0 dome. Debo looks awesome, although he is questionable for this game. But Daniels, I really, really like.

spk_0 I think we have to pay attention to the Washington injury report because we know Tariq McClaren is

spk_0 out in Noah Brown out as well. Uh, but, you know, we, that's going to elevate Debo Samuel. But Debo's

spk_0 questionable as well. And if we lose Debo, we are looking at Luke McAffrey, Jaylen Lane, Chris

spk_0 Moore, I think Chris Moore actually led all the, you know, three of those guys in snaps. I'd probably

spk_0 go Luke McAffrey as well. But Jaylen Lane, if been getting some, some high value, you know, targets,

spk_0 you know, he just needs to do something with them. Um, I guess Neil quarterback, what, what are you

spk_0 looking at this week? Yeah, Justin Herbert to me really stands out. We've seen passing off

spk_0 fences just absolutely torched this commander's defense multiple times here. We've had Tucker Kraft

spk_0 had the huge gaming and some, um, Trey Tucker had a huge gaming and some last week against the,

spk_0 the Falcons like they've just been really bad at stopping the pass. Everybody can, can score on them.

spk_0 And now we've got maybe one of the best pass offenses in the NFL in the chargers. Also kind of fun

spk_0 that there's like multiple ways you can split it up. Like I still think glad McConkey pretty

spk_0 viable. We'll talk about receivers later. Um, but a lot of different ways to split up the chargers.

spk_0 You're not kind of forced to one build. So I really love Justin Herbert stacks. It is kind of

spk_0 chalky. Um, yeah, Jayden Dan, I think a good call out Justin Fields. Yeah. Pretty easy way to make

spk_0 your, uh, your charger stuff on, on chalky Neil one, one, one, one, one, one, one, one,

spk_0 Garandon. No, Latin, Maconkey. Oh, yeah. Yeah. No one, no one's everyone it we've, we've reached.

spk_0 Pete, like I just did the stream before and we took Latin, Maconkey higher, four and a half

spk_0 perceptions and everyone was like, Oh, God, no, no chance. No way. Such a small sample size.

spk_0 And people are just like, no, we're out on Latin. I use second-round pick all draft in season.

spk_0 Now people like, nope, he's just dead. It's Keenan Allen and it's and it's Quentin Johnson and

spk_0 and yeah, it's been four weeks. He's gonna, he's gonna have his games and his, his open score. Like

spk_0 if you like the ESPN stuff still looks good. His route win rate. If you like the fantasy points

spk_0 data stuff still looks good. His PFF like no one, no one is saying, oh, he's actively bad.

spk_0 It the ball just hasn't found him in the offense yet. Yeah. And this is an elite spot. Yeah,

spk_0 I think I think Lad is one of my favorite receivers. I've been taking them a ton in, I've done

spk_0 actually more hundred autographs than usual this week and I've been taking a ton of lad.

spk_0 Obviously you can go to, I mean, Jared Gough actually projected for, I wasn't even thinking about

spk_0 Jared Gough as I'm looking at the contrarian options, but looks like he's actually

spk_0 projected for really low ownership. Yeah, I'll take some. They already scored 50 once

spk_0 this year and he had 12 fantasy points. Is that right? He only had man that is, that is, it was all,

spk_0 it was all rushing. Yeah, and that could happen again again with the, the Dave Montgomery narrative,

spk_0 with Tamir Gives would not be shocking at all, but at three percent ownership, you know, he could

spk_0 just go the other way. I also like, I'm pretty interested in some of the cheaper contrarian options.

spk_0 So I think Jackson Dart, like I still think we just don't know exactly what he's going to be as an

spk_0 NFL quarterback, but he's not getting much ownership. He's pretty cheap. He should be running some.

spk_0 He's a little bit interesting, but then really standing out to me again, that Miami Carolina game,

spk_0 we've got two at like two percent ownership. We've got Bryce Young's only 4700 around three percent

spk_0 ownership. Both just have phenomenal matchups. Again, this game could get super ugly, but these games

spk_0 with a wide range of outcomes where they are inexpensive and not getting much ownership, like that's

spk_0 just a spot that I want to attack with those quarterbacks. Bringing up Jared Goff, it occurs to me

spk_0 that the Lions could put up, but yeah, yeah, 50 points and the Jets could put up 13 points, and like

spk_0 Justin Fields could double Jared Goff's. Yes, the actual fantasy scores because of the Russian.

spk_0 So you mentioned some low price contrarian options and he did not name either of my favorite two

spk_0 low priced low owned contrarian options. Spence for Ratler, like how often you're going to be able

spk_0 to play the Saints as a favorite at home in the dome against a giant defense. Anybody?

spk_0 That's the grossest thing I've ever heard, John.

spk_0 Who's your partner with them? Who you taking?

spk_0 Oh, Chris O'Lavett. Third in the league in targets. What does he know?

spk_0 Like 5200 or or Shijid, right?

spk_0 So here's your, well, I mean, are you talking, are you talking like Lotto stuff, or would you do this

spk_0 in like the Fandule like single entries or three max? Yeah, I probably wouldn't do it in

spk_0 single entry or three max. I mean, far be it for me to tell you what to do in the Lotto fields.

spk_0 This would be my concern though, would be if Alave crushes in that stack, someone is going to

spk_0 have Alave with fields because Alave is going to be so popular. So I just wonder how that

spk_0 leverage works with Alave being like an actual popular click.

spk_0 Well, but Ratler could have four fields, right? Ratler actually adds something on the ground as

spk_0 well. And so I guess we're saying like how likely is the Justin Field really does get one of

spk_0 those long Russian touchdowns. So that argue I think like Ratler probably more like we could

spk_0 check the odds on this kind of thing. But you know, like Ratler is probably more likely to get like

spk_0 two passing touchdowns and a Russian touchdown than Justin Fields. I mean, Fields isn't getting that

spk_0 Russian touchdown. He's a total zero. And they spent Sir Ratler is actually playing for the favorite

spk_0 team at home, right? The jets are not, you know, the jets are the home underdog. So yeah, I'd

spk_0 I'd argue you just you play Spencer Ratler, you know, hoping he outscores Justin Fields, which

spk_0 like is not not an impossible task. No, yeah, it's not it's not a bad call. It's just super gross.

spk_0 Yeah, I've got one that might be grosser. Well, I don't know, but we have the opportunity to play

spk_0 CJ Stroud against the team giving up the most points in the league so far. You know, this season,

spk_0 you know, the Ravens are going to be starting Cooper Rush, you know, and you could say that, well,

spk_0 maybe it's a game where the Texans are just going to eat the ball. But I mean, if they want to

spk_0 get their offense going, like, this is the defense you want to do it against. And, you know, if

spk_0 Cooper Rush is turning the ball over on the other side, like, maybe the Texans are keeping their

spk_0 foot on the gas, hoping, you know, saying like, we're going to we're going to make a statement in

spk_0 this game. We're going to show people, you know, we're still here or whatever in terms of one offense.

spk_0 Like, you know, they've been good on defense. Um, any takers on CJ Stroud?

spk_0 Yeah, after you brought up that we had not talked about your favor, I started looking at

spk_0 trying to speculate who it might be. And actually, I saw CJ Stroud say, I actually kind of like

spk_0 CD Stroud. I think I've at least thought about taking him in draft game this week because of the

spk_0 matchup is so good, particularly great for slot receiver. So, uh, Christian Kirk, come on down.

spk_0 Uh, that kind of excites me a little bit. The Stroud to Kirk being kind of an inexpensive

spk_0 stack to play. Obviously you can play it with Niko Collins. Um, yeah, I actually, um, I like that one.

spk_0 Looking up the Justin Fields touchdown odds. Yeah, it's a Justin Fields because we're talking

spk_0 about the Ratler versus Justin Fields. Fields is plus 115 to score a touchdown on draft games.

spk_0 So worth, worth considering that like, Fields is unlike, well, is less likely than likely to

spk_0 to score a rushing touchdown. I would say if he does not get that rushing touchdown, um, he is,

spk_0 he's going to be over-owned that he is, he's like one of those high strikeouts,

spk_0 unable to control the ball pictures, right? Like when they're seeing high ownership, you do not

spk_0 want to play them, right? Because that's, you know, that's going to be the game where they, you know,

spk_0 walks six guys in the first two innings and, you know, they're out of there by the third. Like,

spk_0 Justin Fields at high ownership is screaming. Freeze hall gets one touchdown. Fields gets none.

spk_0 Yeah, and the jets as expected lose lose to the cowboys at home. So yeah, so I mean,

spk_0 to consider when you're, you're looking at quarterback for your line up this week. But, you know,

spk_0 we, we touched on the, the running backs, potential in the quarterbacks. You know, let's,

spk_0 let's look at the wider severs. Neil, we'll start with you. You know, in terms of wider severs,

spk_0 who do you like this week? Yeah, I mean, I think the Lions receivers all look pretty good.

spk_0 I'm on the same brown. It is expensive. Getting 17% ownership. I think that's about fair. I don't

spk_0 think I'm going to go overboard there. I think that's about right. Garrett Wilson looking like mega-chalk.

spk_0 I do think I'm going to be underweight on Garrett Wilson for the reasons that you guys have both laid

spk_0 out. It's just like, yeah, this is a team that's, the defense is terrible at stopping,

spk_0 passing attacks. But like, this is Justin Fields. Like, they could just fail on their own. They

spk_0 don't need the defense to, to be, I mean, the defense, regardless, they, they can just not put up

spk_0 any fantasy points. So I'll certainly be underweight on Garrett Wilson. George Pickens, I think,

spk_0 that we've already laid out three reasons that game could go poorly. So, the players that I,

spk_0 that I'm really interested in. Again, all three of the charters receivers, Quentin Johnson,

spk_0 5700 is the chalkiest of the group. Nobody wants to play. Actually, it's a slight exaggeration because

spk_0 he is getting double-digit ownership where I'm looking at Kennell and barely double-digit. So I

spk_0 guess they're, they're higher now than they were earlier in the week. But I'm still interested in

spk_0 in all three of the charters receivers to very an extent. We've got Tyree Killout. So, Jalen Waddle

spk_0 should see an uptick in usage here. He's only 5400. He is pretty, pretty attractive to me here.

spk_0 I already laid out like Christian Kirk is like sort of a fun contrarian option in a slot funnel

spk_0 matchup for the slot demon. You guys always do this. You end with me, bros. You always get to,

spk_0 yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm with you. And then, and then we get it. We get a Christian

spk_0 Kirkman. Sub 1% sub 1% projected ownership for the slot demon in the best or, you know, a very strong

spk_0 sub 1% offence. Yeah, come on. You got to, you got to go with the slot demon here. Yeah, I mean,

spk_0 I've named some of my favorites. I could say I can, I mean, yeah, I don't, Jamo, obviously,

spk_0 we talked about Jamo already. He can. He said, Jamo is not obvious. Jamo is one of those guys that

spk_0 people will say on shows, but he's not going to be that own. Like he'll, I'll tell you this,

spk_0 he'll definitely be more owned than whatever his optimal probability is on your favorite website

spk_0 of choice. They'll, they'll say he's a bad play. He'll be a bad, similar ally guy pre-lock. He'll

spk_0 be a bad sim guy post lock, but that's kind of a limitation of maybe not a limitation. I know,

spk_0 I need, you need someone a lot smarter than me to talk about this, but it feels like the Lions are

spk_0 really hard team to deal with in this environment in the NFL because scoring is down, yards are down.

spk_0 Like the scores required to win GPPs are lower. Teams are averaging. It's a 10-year low in yards per

spk_0 pass attempt, 10-year low in rush yards per attempt. Like it was supposed to be, oh, the safeties

spk_0 are playing far away from my scrimmage. We should be able to run, but teams aren't running either.

spk_0 It's all touchdown based. So like Jamo's 17 points that feels kind of bad. Like,

spk_0 oh, you can't win with Jamo. I'm getting 80 yards and a touchdown on two targets. Well, actually,

spk_0 you probably can. You probably can do that now because 17 points at 4,900 is not disqualifying

spk_0 at all. So I just think it's, and I don't know how the best players are dealing with that in their

spk_0 sim process. Yeah, it's a tricky situation. It's one of those, you can, I could be it. So,

spk_0 not that it's necessarily a limitation in the sims, but it is a potential. The sims are all

spk_0 based on the inputs that you put into them there. It's not like they're actually telling the future.

spk_0 So I think Jamo a pretty strong, strong play there. A couple. I think you can go to

spk_0 Derrius Slate and or Wandel Robinson, particularly in Jackson dark stacks, but maybe solo as well.

spk_0 We saw when the league neighbors missed time last year, we saw a double-digit target game for

spk_0 Derrius Slate. He had a little stretch there. He was being targeted pretty heavily. Again,

spk_0 this new quarterback, who knows if it's going to work out the same way, but at low ownership,

spk_0 I think both Wandel and Derrius Slate and a little bit interesting. Maybe Milleke Washington at

spk_0 3,900 again with Tyree Killout takes a little bit of a step up, but there's so many wider

spk_0 receivers here. I've already named some of my favorites. I made fun of Pat Mayo this morning for

spk_0 insisting on Derrius Slate and he said week five last year, Slate and eight receptions 120 yards

spk_0 in touchdown. So something to consider. At 4,300, who do you like better? Derrius break the

spk_0 Slate or Christian Kirk? It's a lot demon. That's really tough. I think I'll go with

spk_0 Kirk because nobody else's name difference. So I'll go with the guy that nobody else is talking about.

spk_0 Yeah, it pairs well with the CJ Stroud. Give me trade Tucker over both of them.

spk_0 Yeah, Tucker's a touch more expensive than 4,700, but definitely still doable. What do we think

spk_0 about Jacobi Myers? Is it finally did Jacobi Myers sleep? Can we just be done with Jacobi Myers

spk_0 and Dushfield projection complex? No, he actually probably is quite strong this week.

spk_0 The Colts just had a defender who played 84% of their snaps up into this point just for tire.

spk_0 No idea who's behind Xavier Howard for the Colts, but you just would have to imagine it's a

spk_0 difficult spot. The issue here is that this is a huge mismatch with the lines. The

spk_0 Raiders just lost their best offensive line and Colton Miller. He's not going to play this week.

spk_0 The Colts defensive line is very good. What does that do? And Bowers is not even going to practice

spk_0 it all this week, but they said there's a chance he can play. So he's going to play probably

spk_0 without practicing in that giant brace that he can't move with. So that does all kind of line up

spk_0 for Jacobi Myers. And we've seen it, right? We saw the trade Tucker week. We saw the Ash and

spk_0 Gentie week. And so Jacobi just keeps disappointing people. Like are people going to go there

spk_0 three weeks in a row and be ready to be heard again. And this could be the Jacobi Myers week.

spk_0 It's going to be a lot less people. He'll be less played than his projection implies that he should be.

spk_0 Yeah, yeah, I agree. All right. Actually, we should, I'm going to play a game where you just rank the

spk_0 charges of White receivers on draftings. So I'll note on Bandul, I think when Johnson's like the

spk_0 seventh most expensive White receiver on Bandul and Lad McConkey is substantially cheaper than

spk_0 then both Kenan Allen and Johnston on Bandul on draft Kings. Like McConkey is still the cheapest,

spk_0 but it's just a hundred dollars difference between him and Kenan Allen then a hundred dollars

spk_0 difference between Kenan Allen and and Quentin Johnson. So David, we'll start with you.

spk_0 We're ranked the charges of White receivers, you know, factoring in price, which is about the same

spk_0 and ownership. You know, do you like Johnston, Allen and McConkey?

spk_0 Look, man, I'm going down. I'm going down with the ship. I just I refuse to believe

spk_0 that Quentin Johnson has monstard Lad McConkey's ability like and actually you guys want to hear,

spk_0 oh, this is going to be so dark. So Ben Gretch made this point and I'm stealing it.

spk_0 But if the QJ breakout is really real and defenses are going to start treating it as real,

spk_0 that means they're going to start to tilt the safeties over to Quentin Johnson,

spk_0 which will open it up underneath and in the middle for Lad McConkey, which is a sentence that I

spk_0 never in my life would have thought that I would have said, but this is now like a realistic way that

spk_0 Lad can get there in a game. You followed by followed by QJ followed by Kenan. Kenan is running real hot

spk_0 and I is the most likely to suffer via combination of age and just like his looks going to run out

spk_0 in terms of scoring quicker than the other two. I absolutely thought you were going most likely

spk_0 to suffer an injury. Well, you've seen his AC joints. I mean, it's a miracle this dude can play football.

spk_0 I mean, Kenan Allen eaten a half targets per game so far this year. So he's not just getting lucky.

spk_0 He's being targeted quite a bit. He has outperformed his touchdown expectation, but

spk_0 so I have it in the exact same order. I do like Lad McConkey the best at the like,

spk_0 I think so actually I think Kenan Allen is probably the one that is least likely to see ownership.

spk_0 I do like I pardon me, I want to say it's Lad McConkey because nobody's seen it. Nobody wants to play

spk_0 him, but I've been like loving him all week. Davis loves him. I kind of think that we might surprise

spk_0 ourselves. There's definitely a certain fraction of the fantasy football community that is like,

spk_0 oh, dude, this is the Lad McConkey week. So it wouldn't be that surprising me if Lad ends up at 17

spk_0 percent. It would surprise me if Kenan ends up at 17 percent, which kind of leaves me almost back to

spk_0 Kenan, but no, I do think that you have the order correct. I will say this is so far in terms of

spk_0 schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed, particularly a nice matchup for slot receivers six best,

spk_0 for first slot receivers so far in terms of schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed Kenan Allen

spk_0 lining up in the slot 47 percent of the time. Lad McConkey 63 percent of the time QJ 16 percent

spk_0 of the time. So if you think it's just a lad slot thing, QJ runs the fewest routes from the slot,

spk_0 but we've also just seen splash plays in QJ pretty capable of those splash plays. So I think

spk_0 kind of a nice matchup for all of them, but yeah, I think that you have the order right that it's

spk_0 probably Lad number one QJ number two, Kenan Allen number three with a caveat that like if we do end

spk_0 up seeing a 10 percent gap in ownership between Kenan Allen and the others, then that might flip

spk_0 things for me if he ends up 10 percent lower on than the others. Yeah, we're going to end up

spk_0 skipping over Kenan Allen. He's going to get 10 receptions 120 yards. Exactly. And yeah, it's

spk_0 inevitable. I agree. I think that in a vacuum, I think my order would be would be McConkey,

spk_0 then Johnston, then Kenan Allen. I might try to get more Quentin Johnston on draft kings.

spk_0 Like if I'm playing, if I end up playing, you know, kind of equal amounts on Fandall and draft

spk_0 kings, I actually think it makes sense because there is a real savings on Lad McConkey. So like,

spk_0 maybe you go over the field on McConkey on Fandall, you know, and try to do something with the

spk_0 savings on draft kings. They're all about the same price and you end up with a lot of Quentin

spk_0 Johnston and he just like praced yourself for the inevitable like Kenan Allen game.

spk_0 What about AJ Brown? Yeah, squeaky wheel narrative. I know that this game is probably not going

spk_0 to see a ton of ownership facing a Denver defense that is pretty good, but not unassailable.

spk_0 Yeah, we get to attack it. Yeah, anybody any takers on AJ Brown?

spk_0 Probably going to get this return coverage, right? He's going to get to the shadow. I would think

spk_0 I'm looking up the likelihood of that. He's also getting double digit ownership where I'm looking.

spk_0 So like if he were super contrarian, I'd say, yeah, it's AJ Brown. He can do it against anybody,

spk_0 but he's getting double digit ownership and shadow coverage from Patux or Tan. So I guess I'm not

spk_0 super into it. He'll probably make my player pool in a 150 set, but not like not somebody I anticipate

spk_0 being overweight on. Do you have any AJ Brown down at 6,000? Can I interest you at 6,000?

spk_0 I mean, look, you can you can you can interest me. I see why one would want to do such a thing,

spk_0 but it's also like how low can AJ Brown? I get in these spots a lot with the Eagles where I'm like,

spk_0 how low can their ownership really be? Because everyone knows they are good. The projections always

spk_0 kind of like them. So it's like, oh, I'm going to roll over AJ Brown at 2%. Oh, no, you actually

spk_0 rolled over AJ Brown at 8%, which means in a given contest, 500 other teams also have

spk_0 AJ Brown on it. So you thought you were unique, but you really weren't and you're stuck being like,

spk_0 wow, the Eagles really didn't complete a pass in the second half. Huh, that's wild. You know,

spk_0 I he obviously he is one of the most under owned guys relative to his ceiling projection in this

spk_0 slate. Because if they decide to throw the ball, like Patux or Tan is just going to have to sit and

spk_0 watch what AJ Brown does. They have AJ Brown is one of the few guys who actually is so good.

spk_0 There is not a defensive corner who could just shut him down. All right, what those are so

spk_0 frustrating. One more wide receiver I want to touch on because I think we're going to see some

spk_0 regal doubtful ownership. Do we try to get leverage with Technic Millen? We've been seeing these

spk_0 rookies go berserk, you know, week four, you know, seen the book of he putting up the big numbers.

spk_0 Like Technic Millen's look good. We're still waiting for the big like statistical game, Neil,

spk_0 any any interest in in some tech? Yeah, absolutely interested in in Technic Millen. He has a

spk_0 getting double digit ownership. I think that's totally fair. I wouldn't be surprised if I end up

spk_0 20, 25% Technic Millen. I get looks great in this matchup. Also, this is an opportunity to tell

spk_0 everybody that co-heads we back up, Jalen co-cur next week going to be opening his his window is 2021

spk_0 day practice window. So that's that's exciting for me as somebody who drafted way too much Jalen

spk_0 co-cur this summer. Practice window news also, Tason Hill. Get ready for some Tason. Yeah, that's

spk_0 Tason Hill soon. I would have drafted so much of that guy in Bestball. If I would have thought there

spk_0 was any chance he was back this soon. Right. This is I would have I would have never taken

spk_0 Jettavian Sanders or Theo Johnson any of these guys. I would have had 50%. I thought it was like

spk_0 likely he was going to miss the entire season. They were talking about having to cut him as a

spk_0 cap casualty to like say, you know, it's just that it's a nightmare, dude. I can't believe this is

spk_0 happening. Any any final thoughts on wider see or any gross super gross plays anybody wants to

spk_0 throw out Chris Godwin, you know, Chris Godwin 17.6 expected fantasy points last week. I will toss out

spk_0 trade Tucker and and Dante Thornton and Jacobi Myers because the cold secondary so bad. I also

spk_0 got a stat on Teteroi McMillan. If the Miami if the aggregated quarterback's facing Miami were

spk_0 a quarterback, they'd be the quarterback one over over the Dallas defense. Now part of that is

spk_0 because fields had so much rushing against them. So it maybe doesn't exactly count the way you

spk_0 think it would, but they're they're terrible. So yeah. Yeah. I'm in on that. Some some injuries to

spk_0 the Tampa defense. I just saw my my guy D bro tweeting out that this could be a good spot for

spk_0 JS and JS and super chalky, but also Cooper Cup also inexpensive and not getting any ownership.

spk_0 We didn't talk about Sam Darrell, but with Jamel Dino in particular, maybe a sneaky spot for

spk_0 for the Seahawks. Maybe somebody all have to consider a little bit not like a huge priority,

spk_0 but Jamel Dino certainly helps there with the Seahawks offense and is pretty inexpensive. So I

spk_0 think that's that Cooper got probably the final gross name that all throw out there. Yeah, actually,

spk_0 well, yeah. So I think Cooper Cup is plausible, but I also we sometimes like party the lead, because I

spk_0 think Jackson Smith and Jacob is in the best spot. You know, I received where this week in my

spk_0 opinion, I keys the guy. And again, one of the one of the elements of this slate is that we're

spk_0 missing Christian McCafferring, Pukin, I think like JS and is the next best thing. I think him was

spk_0 Pukin Jr. in my head, you know, just with the, you know, the amount of targeted gets the number of

spk_0 reception deep piles off like the consistency. He's 7,100. So this price is getting up like his

spk_0 price and week one, you know, sub six thousand was preposterous. But it's still a bargain, 7,100.

spk_0 You know, so yeah, I think that he's getting at least at least 80 yards, right? Like he's he's

spk_0 starting the game with his stats from last week for four, four exceptions and 80 yards. And he's

spk_0 usually adding on top that it's 7,100. I guess that's something you want to try to use. I've gotten

spk_0 I've got an interesting one for you guys. So like, regardless of the projection system, you're going

spk_0 to have JSN and St. Brown are going to be projected between two points and three points higher than

spk_0 every other wider seeper in the pool period. Given the availability of all these cheap running

spk_0 backs, don't you think like the building block this week is kind of like, well, you get those

spk_0 guys in and then you work back and you were just going to be like, don't mess around with Chris

spk_0 Haleve. Don't don't mess around with Jalen Waddle. Just just get the guys who literally like before

spk_0 block project the best to be in the winning lineups. I like it better. I mean, yeah, I guess I don't

spk_0 like it to the same extent as like Pupinakua and Krishmikafri last week. But yes, I think it's kind

spk_0 of the same effect though, like the overall scores are lower, but it's the same standard deviation

spk_0 effect. Sure. I just, yeah, like I get what you're saying that like, yeah, it's easy to fit them in.

spk_0 I think with Amonra in particular, I like it less just because I think that there are ways,

spk_0 like you said, where it could just be a bunch of rushing touchdowns, like they might just not

spk_0 need to throw much and he's expensive enough that if it's if he doesn't score one in the first half,

spk_0 they might not might just be over. Again, like you've also said, they do keep their foot on the

spk_0 gas and we saw him score four touchdowns already this year in a game where it was a blow and they

spk_0 kept throwing it to him. So certainly could get there, but I think that it's easier to see that

spk_0 failing than it was like Pupinakua last week, I think to me. But yeah, I agree like that is

spk_0 that certainly a way you could build. Like these guys look pretty great. All right, let's say you've

spk_0 got Amonra saying Brown in your lineup, right? You have one right wide receiver spot available.

spk_0 You have $7,800. Do you put your mark chase in there? Are you putting in Jackson Smith and Jake

spk_0 to $700? Jason. Jason. Yeah. You know, chase beats me. I'll tip my cap and I'll say,

spk_0 shout out to you for believing in Jake Browning. The thing that's so tough with the bangles is that

spk_0 they don't care. They actively are not caring on the field. I think the wide receiver's care.

spk_0 Oh, yes, because the wide receiver is care. Jason T care big time. That's you know what? That's

spk_0 fair. They care big time. Yeah. And as a result, I think Jake Browning probably cares too, because

spk_0 like he doesn't want to be the guy who the receivers are all pissed off at. So if their third quarterback

spk_0 was still Brandon Allen, we probably would see a switch this week, but their third quarterback is,

spk_0 I just looked this up yesterday. It's Brent Ripon. So it's like they don't even they don't even have

spk_0 Jason just projects better unless it's like Detroit stack. Then in that case, I would use the chase

spk_0 bring back. Yeah, I do. I do think it's possible that Jamar Chase is one of the guys that just

spk_0 break this. I got I'm not going to have money any of my list, but I would actually say I prefer

spk_0 JSN. I think if I'm playing a mon Rossine Brown, if I had the money, I think I'd go to

spk_0 Mar chase, right? Yeah, because like the receivers always care, right? The receivers are always in

spk_0 the quarterbacks year. Like it doesn't matter if he's arguing with head coach or new often

spk_0 supporters. It's giving me the ball. You know, I it's how I get paid. So yeah, I would I'd I'd

spk_0 do think Jamar Chase will be under owned assuming you he sees minimal ownership, but we'll we

spk_0 should move on to the the tight end position. Neil, we'll start with you. It's been pretty bleak

spk_0 this year. You know, we what are your thoughts on the tight end? Yeah, I mean, McBride has just been

spk_0 pretty good. He's the chock. Tyler Warren price just not moving. Even when he's getting

spk_0 goal line carries, he's still just 4700 looks pretty good. I'm starting to kind of with the top

spk_0 of ownership. Brock Bowers in the knee brace still, I think has not been practicing. He could miss

spk_0 this game. I think it's pretty likely that he plays and he's still limited. I'm this is finally

spk_0 the week that I think I'm I'm not going to play it. And so he'll probably go off this week after I

spk_0 don't play it. But yeah, I'm not super excited about it. I think my favorites are looking at like

spk_0 ownership and price and Jake Ferguson also looks good also Chockey. But Sam Laporta stands out to

spk_0 me as just everybody's playing all of the lines except for Sam Laporta at 4200. A great spot for

spk_0 Sam Laporta. Also, again, they can get going with whoever they want to. Maybe they want to get

spk_0 Sam Laporta going since he hasn't done much. So far this year, I still think the talent is there

spk_0 match up as a lead. So I really like Sam Laporta here. Mason Taylor again in that matchup looks

spk_0 pretty good. Joanne Johnson. We're getting it single. The gym ownership looks okay. I think the

spk_0 the one that really interests me at really low ownership is Tommy Trembl. We got the news that

spk_0 Jettavian Sanders is out again this week when when Jettavian Sanders is out Tommy Trembl just has

spk_0 any lead role on the Panthers. Like I think is the number two target on this offense right now.

spk_0 So I actually think he is pretty pretty strong play. It's kind of a sort of like pretty deep tight end

spk_0 tight end week for me, I think, but not like deep in the sense that we don't have much separation.

spk_0 I think it's more like we don't have like awesome elite tight end plays where it's like this is

spk_0 super obvious. But we have a lot of like yeah, wouldn't really surprise me if he puts up 16 fantasy

spk_0 points. So I'm kind of leading into the the cheaper guys who are not getting a ton of ownership.

spk_0 It's going to be a lot of also stacked with my quarterback. But yeah, the one that I think I'm

spk_0 more interested in than the field is Tommy Trembl at 2% ownership, 2,900, which Jettavian Sanders

spk_0 out. I said this morning, if Trembl had put up 15 draftings points on Monday night instead of

spk_0 Darren Waller would be talking about Trembl much much more and you know, people are like, oh yeah,

spk_0 we should go to Darren Waller with no tirey kill. Yeah, I think Trembl, you know, 600 dollars

spk_0 cheaper. It's probably better play Davis. How about you? Any tight ends that are sticking out to you that

spk_0 you would like prioritize over just stacking with your quarterback? I mean, it's I just would really

spk_0 prioritize playing the guys who are just the worst play. Is there like a worse play in DFS history

spk_0 than the $3800 track tie. Isn't it always just like Darren Waller just like super zero like

spk_0 John Johnson's not a particularly good play if he's going to get owned Jake Ferguson's not a

spk_0 particularly good play if he's going to get owned. You know, who is a good play if those guys get

spk_0 owned? The two guys super jacked. I'm trying to look full PPR projection. How much points how many points

spk_0 better are Tyler Warren and Tramick bride than everyone else? Three points better than everyone else

spk_0 six points better than everyone, John Johnson and lower like a touchdown better than it and it's

spk_0 just like, well, you're not even you're not even really getting charged for them. Tramick bride is

spk_0 cheap. Tyler Warren is super cheap. Like isn't the efficient ownership for Tyler Warren, probably like

spk_0 35% or something this week. I think that's a little bit high, but yeah, higher than it is for sure.

spk_0 Yeah. Is there a rule they can't raise his price for some reason? Why is he still just $4700?

spk_0 I guess maybe he doesn't have a receiving touchdown yet. Maybe that's it. It was a it was a

spk_0 rushing touchdown. Like who knows the intricacies of the draft King's algorithm and like what it is

spk_0 always doing, but it is just I don't understand it. Yeah. So yeah, 70 yards in three out of his first

spk_0 four NFL games. A name nobody mentioned Zach Hertz got a receiving touchdown in every game that

spk_0 that Jayden Daniels has played so far this the season, which is just weeks one and two. But yeah,

spk_0 Zach Hertz just 3800. I think he's an interesting play. He's maybe one of the few guys I would play

spk_0 you know, just without the quarterback that's not Tyler Warren, Tramick bride or Jake Ferguson.

spk_0 And he I guess like any thoughts on on Brock Bauer's like is it just he's just hurt he's playing

spk_0 through it and we should probably be like docking his projection as we his efficiency should be like

spk_0 mega docked. Yeah. Yeah. He's not even practicing this week. Yeah. Yeah. And in one limited practice,

spk_0 he seems to still project well. I guess it you know, it depends on what the production system you're

spk_0 looking at. I do I think there should be like a mental or just you know, actual you know, literally

spk_0 just dock him. Dock him like in my sheet where I aggregate the projections, I've got him for 12

spk_0 0.18. I probably just dock him to 11 flat and see if that does anything. Because I guess he could

spk_0 catch a touchdown. He is still he's on the field 90% of the snaps. Yeah. I'll say his price is down

spk_0 a thousand dollars from week one, right? Started the season at 6500 now 5500. So it's going down

spk_0 each week and he is still seen charts, like at least five targets in each game and it is the

spk_0 tight end position. So there's going to be a time when the price drops right below like the

spk_0 the amount of efficiency the injury is costing him. I'm just not sure it's this week, but

spk_0 is an indoor environment against the cold. So I'm talking myself into it as I started off super

spk_0 negative on Brock Bauer's now. Well, maybe it is anybody else, but it could work for us. It's a

spk_0 spot where I wouldn't be surprised if we flip over the cards and he's actually like 5% owned.

spk_0 So at that point, I would have a lot of interest. It's just right now. It's like he's being projected

spk_0 for like he's too expensive clearly for like the role he has had recently and then also the

spk_0 ownership is in the double digits. So you factor both those things in and say, yeah, I'm not that

spk_0 super into it. But then if we do flip over the cards and he's 5%, then I'll feel like an idiot for

spk_0 not playing more Brock Bauer's because he still clearly has that like 25 point upside.

spk_0 So, you know, we're running close to an hour here. Just we'll start wrapping it up. Any final

spk_0 thoughts on the week, David, we'll start with you. Any final thoughts on the 10 games?

spk_0 I mean, I guess probably the best advice I could give you wouldn't be about any specific

spk_0 plays. It would just be more strategy that just open up your sheet, whatever your projections are,

spk_0 and literally just look at how close everyone projects. Like how few points there are or something

spk_0 I like to do is literally run like a thousand lineups in the whatever your thing is and then

spk_0 could just compare the projected points from the first lineup and then compare the projected points

spk_0 from the thousand lineup. And I'm not done that yet. But I'm going to guess you could run a thousand

spk_0 teams and have like a seven point gap or something. You know, just one of those weeks. So if you've

spk_0 got a, if you like, oh man, Cameras going to score a bunch of points or the field is not going to play

spk_0 Laporta enough because they're on the lines, but Laporta, like just go whatever, I would say it's

spk_0 a good week to kind of no ball a little bit or just because everything's going to look so

spk_0 bunched up. Yeah. Think about how often a touchdown goes this way or that, right? On

spk_0 replays is put in or out, right? Like that's the difference between the first lineup and the

spk_0 thousandth lineup when you're, you know, when you're running that, all those lines. So yeah,

spk_0 just brings to mind how closely brushed everything can be when this scoring is down. Neil, how about

spk_0 you? Any, any closing thoughts on the week? Yeah, I think it's a week to really lean in on game

spk_0 stacks. Like we've got a lot of games that I think could go like major like wide, wide range of

spk_0 outcomes or it like could get pretty gross or could be really fun. So I'm going to lean into that

spk_0 when I, when I play the Jets, for example, I'm going to want probably pieces of Dallas on the other

spk_0 side. It's probably going to be I'm going to be a little bit underweight overall. But when I do play

spk_0 pieces from that game, I want it to be like a full game stack just bet on the whole thing going

spk_0 off. But I think it's the same thing with like the giants and the saints. I think that's one like

spk_0 it's pretty gross, but like wouldn't like you could kind of envision that game surprising and being

spk_0 a lot of fun. Miami, Carolina, same thing, you know, across the board. I think there's just a lot of

spk_0 game environment Cincinnati Detroit where it's like there's a huge spread. But if Cincinnati can push

spk_0 them, keep up at all suddenly the wide receivers are finally doing something. That's where you really

spk_0 get fireworks from this game. So I think just across the board, I'm going to be game stacking more

spk_0 than usual this week. Yeah, I think that's a good call that the totals might be bunched together

spk_0 when Vegas sets them, right? But at the end of the week, one game is probably going to stand out

spk_0 amongst the others or maybe one or two games, you know, stands out amongst the others. So if you

spk_0 are if you're doing the game stacks, right? You're you're hopefully catching on to that that correlation

spk_0 and seeing a Rhino, you know, adding some very interesting line up that helps it in in a tournament.

spk_0 But that'll just about do it for us for this week. Any any final comments? All right.

spk_0 Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll hopefully catch you next week and hopefully see you

spk_0 at the top of the leaderboards this week. Until next time.

DFS MVP Week 5 w/ Neil Orfield, Davis Mattek, and John Breslin

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