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CHASING BASKETBALL HEAVEN Episode 6: Occasionally Brilliant
In Episode 6 of 'Chasing Basketball Heaven', hosts Rich Levine and Nick Altshuler explore the evolution of basketball analytics and its impact on the game, particularly focusing on the three...
CHASING BASKETBALL HEAVEN Episode 6: Occasionally Brilliant
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Speaker A
The novel Futility is about the maiden voyage of a fabulous ocean liner, a ship far larger than any previously built and labeled unsinkable. The vessel sets sail for New York from Southampton with a cargo of complacent passengers. Strikes an iceberg en route, goes down. The ship was called the Titan. So why didn't Arthur Morgan Robertson come out and say it? His Titan is obviously the Titanic. Both liners were touted as the biggest, most luxurious and foolproof. Both were inadequately stocked with lifeboats, resulting in heavy casualties. And both sank at exactly the same spot in the North Atlantic, each on a cold April night. How did the author get away with it? Because the novel that so accurately described history in reality foretold it in 1898, 14 years before the real life Titanic set sail.
Speaker B
So we're walking here down a more narrow hallway here at the convention center. This is the hall of Research papers.
Speaker C
In early 2025, Rich and I attended the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston.
Speaker B
Since 2006, the conference has been bringing together some of the greatest and geekiest minds in sports data.
Speaker C
Let's go this way and come back.
Speaker B
Yeah, okay.
Speaker C
The event was held in the Heinz Convention center in the city's Back Bay. It's a gray cavernous building that feels like someone put an old train station on the moon. It swallowed the thousands of stat heads in attendance, people who had traveled from all over the world to be there.
Speaker B
We went to Sloan to learn about the future of basketball. A future that might look very different from the present. That's because ever since Steph Curry started routinely hitting threes from arena parking lots, a decade long debate has grown in volume.
Speaker C
How many three point shots is too many?
Speaker B
As team after team adopted the strategy popularized by Curry and the warriors, the game has turned into a long range shooting contest. Pretty much what Martin was pushing for in basketball heaven. I remember looking back at that old Bulls Celtics game from 1986 and noticing every single player standing inside the arc. Today, on any given possession, it's common to see every offensive player behind the arcs.
Speaker C
The all time NBA record for three point shots.
Speaker B
By the time we hit the convention, threes had come to dominate play so thoroughly, some NBA insiders were calling for the shot to be abolished.
Speaker C
What if we took away the three point line?
Speaker D
Who would be the best team in the NBA?
Speaker B
That's a good question. If you don't have the extra point.
Speaker C
I think that would be a fun.
Speaker B
Thing for the G League to experiment with it.
Speaker C
Is this product a little monotonous with the threes.
Speaker B
Yes, it is.
Speaker E
The three point line in particular is something we'll continue to look at.
Speaker B
This conversation had us wondering not only about if three pointers were an endangered species, but what that change would mean for Martin Manley's legacy, such as it is. Because another reason we hit Sloan was to find out how many of these number crunchers were even aware of Martin and his work. Do any of these people know Martin Manley? Do they understand his role in kind of kicking off this whole shebang? And what's your guess?
Speaker C
I'm going to say 1 out of 10.
Speaker B
1 out of 10. So 10% of the kids here are going to know the name Martin Manley?
Speaker C
Yes, I might hold the book up.
Speaker B
We soon learned that Nick's guess was wildly optimistic. You ever heard the name Martin Manley? How about the name Martin Manley?
Speaker C
Have you heard the name Martin Manley?
Speaker B
No, I have not. How about the name Martin Manley? No, no, no, I have not. I'm not familiar with. Have you ever heard the name Martin Man? Martin Manley? No. Martin Manley.
Speaker C
Is that you guys? No, no, no.
Speaker B
He was one of, like, the pioneers of basketball analytics that we're learning that not that many people know about anymore.
Speaker C
There was a time when people did know Martin's name, people like David Stern and Fred Hickman. And now here we were at Sloan, searching for any evidence of his impact.
Speaker B
Martin was a man who'd gone to great lengths to craft a lasting legacy. And as we learn, maybe that was the problem. From 30 for 30 podcasts. I'm Rich Levine.
Speaker C
I'm Nick Altshuler. Today, the final episode of Chasing Basketball Heaven, episode six, Occasionally Brilliant.
Speaker B
When we weren't assessing Martin Manley's legacy, such as it is, we were talking to anyone we could about the future of basketball and attending panels like this one. Good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to introduce today's conversation.
Speaker E
Have the nerds ruined Basketball?
Speaker B
That panel featured a conversation about a concept we've danced around for much of this series. When do analytics and efficiency go too far?
Speaker C
That is to say, has the three point shot ruined the sport?
Speaker E
And I'm going to ask the panelists to address this question. Is this a problem for the game? Because there's people out there that are saying it makes it less interesting. There's no creativity. There's no imagination. The game has become a three point shooting competition.
Speaker C
The moderator, Harvard Business School Professor Deepak.
Speaker B
Malhotra, was speaking with Evan Wash, the NBA's VP of strategy and analytics. Also, Daryl Morey, the 76ers president of basketball operations, a noted three point advocate, who you might remember, we spoke to earlier in the show. However, that day at the Sloan conference, Morey argued from an unlikely position.
Speaker E
So, Darrell, we'll start with you. Do you think this is a problem? I do, yeah. I think game design's important. I don't think it's the fault of the teams or the, the analysts out there because their job is just to win. But it's 50% more than the other shots. That's simply too much. It essentially breaks the game. I'm gonna let Evan go next on what you think about this. Do you agree? I do not.
Speaker B
A game design or a rule in and of itself cannot be a problem.
Speaker C
It is only a problem if the.
Speaker E
Style of play that results from that is not exciting.
Speaker B
Well, we're already there at three, so.
Speaker C
That is your belief.
Speaker E
So let's get a couple more.
Speaker B
Nick, we've talked about this a little bit. How serious do you think these guys were? Is this a genuine rivalry or are they kind of like playing it up for the crowd?
Speaker C
Came across like wrestling, a little fake show, but the slaps were real.
Speaker B
There was some real animosity in there.
Speaker C
Maybe blood was drawn. Yes, people got red in the face.
Speaker B
Also on the panel were Celtics exec Mike Zarin, once a member of that data focused Yahoo group that Dean Oliver ran, and basketball legend Sue Bird. She of four WNBA titles, two NCAA championships and five gold medals. Bird made the second most three pointers in WNBA history. But she also saw how the shot hurt, the aesthetics and the pace of the game.
Speaker F
I feel like I'm sitting between my divorced parents because I'm a mid range shooter at heart, but I want to win. So I'm like, which parent am I choosing? It's difficult. I will say this. I don't think the game is broken. I still find it very entertaining. I think people find it entertaining. But I will say I did go to randomly a college pickup game the other day, a college kid. So you know, at best mediocre college kid. Like student, not athlete. Okay. Caught at the top of the keep pump, faked. And instead of taking the one, dribble in for the pull up, sidestepped for a three.
Speaker E
Sounds funny.
Speaker D
Clang.
Speaker F
Like terrible shot, obviously. And I thought to myself, like, ugh, Darrell.
Speaker C
But ultimately, in a panel full of sharp insight, it was one line from Maury to Malhotra that really got our attention.
Speaker E
The three point line was 100% good when it was put in. And as you know, well, because you wrote a case on it, people didn't use it well at the beginning.
Speaker B
Wait a second. We spent the last two years wondering how it took the NBA so long to start shooting threes and this guy wrote a whole case study on it.
Speaker C
That's what our close friend Darrell said after the panel.
Speaker B
We had to track him down.
Speaker E
My name is Deepak Malhotra. I'm a professor at the Harvard Business School where I've been for the last 23 years. And my area of work is primarily negotiations, deal making and conflict.
Speaker B
Malhotra's case study examined three point shot usage. He wanted to figure out why it took so long for the MBA to utilize the clear and significant advantages presented by the three point line. He asked questions like why do organizations sometimes not learn?
Speaker E
And why do people have models in their head that maybe aren't accurate but they persist?
Speaker C
In other words, why did it take decades for the three pointer to go from afterthought to core principle?
Speaker E
The math is pretty straightforward, right? You know, if you're far away from the hoop, being another couple of feet even farther and getting 50% more points is a pretty good idea. So that's the math is totally clear. And so whenever you see a situation where something seems obvious and it's not happening, it's already interesting.
Speaker C
Obvious change is blocked by numerous factors. First, there's the analytical. The math may be persuasive, but the coach may have counterarguments.
Speaker B
If we start shooting a lot of threes, won't our offense become predictable?
Speaker C
Second, we have cultural barriers. Three is more than two is an airtight mathematical argument. But that logic doesn't immediately make sense on the court.
Speaker B
Hey guys, I know it's been drilled in you since birth to love the easy layup. Like so much so that a layup has become synonymous with something easy. But what I need you to do now is start shooting from 25ft away.
Speaker C
And lastly, there's the psychology involved.
Speaker E
If you're being inefficient and everybody else is inefficient, you don't have that same pressure. There was an old saying, you know, in the 80s and 90s, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM. And the basic notion was, listen, as long as you're doing something that you can justify to other people why you did it, even if things don't go well, you're safe.
Speaker C
Why take a big risk when what you're risking is your job? After all, it's rare to get in trouble for conforming.
Speaker E
Often, what looks simple and straightforward mathematically can have a lot of layers of complexity in terms of actually going from an idea to implementation in an organization. Because there is this general tendency for people to believe it was a great idea. Somebody would have come up with it already. Not to mention a lot of the folks that are coming up with the ideas don't have the access that they need to make a difference. So you may have a research paper, you may have written a book, et cetera, but you're not necessarily on the inside anyway. So it is very hard to have an impact. But it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. It just takes different channels to make it happen.
Speaker C
What Malhotra said there really made me think about Martin, about his apparent failed attempt to make an impact. He wrote Basketball Heaven to shift the way we all saw the game, but no one bought the book. Still, he played a part in changing how numbers are treated in the NBA, and the field of sports analytics eventually exploded around him. Rich and I were curious to see what this explosion meant for the next generation of moneyballers, so we wandered the conference to meet them.
Speaker B
As we headed out to the main floor, we heard a rumble building in the distance like we were about to get trampled by a stampede of math obsessed bulls.
Speaker C
Reminded me of my days in Pamplona.
Speaker B
Would you sell cotton candy? Then.
Speaker C
On the floor we quickly learned how to read the dress code. Nice suits, red lanyards. Those were executives and they weren't stopping to talk. Sweatsuits, Team logos. Those people already work for a team and appeared very relaxed, but they weren't.
Speaker B
There to do interviews either. Can we ask you a quick question? Sorry, I have to have to immediately. Okay, we've heard that one before.
Speaker C
Tight suits, cuffs ending 3 inches above the shoes. Those were the up and comers. Students or young professionals on the grind hoping to get their resume in the right hands.
Speaker B
And let me tell you, they did want to talk and so I would love less time out.
Speaker C
Austin Peterson, based in Austin, Texas, crunches numbers for a sales and marketing firm, but has some thoughts on how to improve the NBA product.
Speaker B
I know there's revenue issues with commercials and stuff like that. I totally get it. I like money too. We all like money, but the like just more flow to the game which requires the players to make more decisions in real time. I think would be great. Then there was Hailey Nuccio, a senior at Butler University and well on her way to efficiently navigating the real world.
Speaker F
So I already have a job lined up with the NCAA starting in April, I'm going to be an enterprise risk management analyst, but I do like the head of data analytics for the football team at Butler and the head of a data analytics project for the basketball team.
Speaker B
What project are you working on for basketball?
Speaker F
So we do biometrical analytics. So the Connexon chips that they wear in the back of their shirts, basically analyze those after every practice and games. That way the coaches can plan better practices, things like that.
Speaker C
See who's slacking.
Speaker B
We also met Coy Stefanos, one of 15 researchers invited to the conference to present their work and participate in an annual poster competition. I work for the Hornets. Yeah. This is the last vestige of my research career. So this is. Can you give us, like, a quick, like, elevator pitch of what we're learning here? Yeah. So fundamentally, I'm interested in what happens when you miss.
Speaker C
So we're basically saying is there's other.
Speaker B
Ways to create positive value when you miss. Namely, you get the board, you put it back in. So in order to quantify that, what happens when you miss, when you put yourself in the best position to succeed, give it your best shot, and it still doesn't go in. There's a resiliency to being efficient. It's not the cliche that you miss every shot that you don't take. It's the reality that you also miss a majority of the shots that you do take, especially when it comes to three pointers. Coy obviously knows this. When it comes to basketball and analytics, he seems to know it all.
Speaker C
Do you have an opinion on who the Bill James of basketball is?
Speaker B
I think Dean Oliver's probably got the claim to that. I think he's the first person to be paid by a sports team to do analytics. So I would probably say, Dean, I think he was really influential to, like, four factors. So far, not a single person at this conference had known the name Martin Manley. But Coy, we had a feeling about Coy. He might be our angel from basketball heaven. I think he's the guy.
Speaker C
Really?
Speaker B
Yep.
Speaker C
You know who Martin Manley is?
Speaker B
I'm bad with names. No. Maybe. You ever the book Basketball Heaven? No.
Speaker C
He was sort of maybe the original, like, three's better than two guy.
Speaker B
Interesting. Okay.
Speaker C
Yeah.
Speaker B
That is what it sounds like when you miss. I had faith in you, Coy. Sorry.
Speaker C
None of the young statisticians at Sloan knew Martin's name. None of them could see their connection to him. But we did. The shared obsession, the drive. We could imagine a young Martin hustling through those halls, pitching his formulas Promoting the three. That Martin would be here laughing, pontificating with his peers and correcting their math. If anything, our trip to the Sloan conference only made our reckoning with Martin's legacy more complicated. His biggest basketball fantasy had bloomed into reality and been adopted by the league, perhaps too enthusiastically, but his influence went unrecognized, his name mostly forgotten. But perhaps it's less important how many people remember you. But who and how well? There was one man we could think of who could make sense of all this and put Martin's work in the proper context. It was time to climb the metaphorical mountain. It was time to meet Bill James.
Speaker B
We have reached the top of the mountain neck. Do you feel any more nervous now than you were two seconds ago in the car?
Speaker C
A little bit.
Speaker B
Bill James lives on a brick road just off the main drag in the college town of Lawrence, Kansas. The street is lined with old colonials, the kind of houses that bring to mind town leaders and college professors.
Speaker C
James house is dark blue with a wraparound porch, home to an old black lab lying in the sun. Immediately, just from the eye test, he's a five tool dog. My guess was his name was Fred Lynn, the old star outfielder for the Red Sox.
Speaker B
I went with Nap Lajawe, an early 20th century second baseman for Philadelphia and Cleveland.
Speaker C
I'm gonna ring the bell here.
Speaker B
Hope he's home. Supposed to be here.
Speaker C
Catch the man in his pajamas. Oh, Here he comes.
Speaker B
Mr. James?
Speaker D
Yes.
Speaker B
How are you?
Speaker D
I'm good. Yourself?
Speaker B
Rich.
Speaker D
Hi, Rich. Nice to meet you.
Speaker C
Nick. Pleasure to meet you.
Speaker D
Hi, Nick.
Speaker B
Come on in. Oh, thank you, sir.
Speaker C
Thank you. Bill James keeps a wicker basket full of baseball gloves in his entryway. It sits at the feet of a giant wooden baseball player.
Speaker B
Who's this statue of here? Not.
Speaker D
Anyway, this is a statue of baseball player.
Speaker C
It's not Mike Schmidt.
Speaker B
He looks like the Schmidt mustache.
Speaker D
That's a good point. We'll start calling him Mike.
Speaker C
Oh, and the dog, as I'm sure many of you are wondering, is named Amos for Amos Otis, center fielder for the Royals from 1970 to 1983.
Speaker B
You watch the Jayhawks? Yeah.
Speaker D
Yeah.
Speaker B
Still watch everyone?
Speaker D
Oh, yes.
Speaker B
Wow. Bill is 75 years old. As he led us through his living room, we saw pictures of him with US Presidents on the mantel. His dining room is lined with knickknacks and souvenirs like a shelf of stone elephants. A Kansas Jayhawks nesting doll. We sat at his table under a picture of a baseball field at night painted by his wife Susan. It's all evidence of a life well lived.
Speaker C
Bill had a stroke in 2024, but he still has his fastball. Right away, he flashed the familiar traits of a great sports analyst.
Speaker B
Like, what's your work day? Is it like 6am to 9pm sort of stuff or.
Speaker D
I think my bad habit of getting my work done in the middle of the night probably goes way, way back. I was up till 4:30 this morning, you know.
Speaker B
This morning?
Speaker D
This morning, yeah. And that's pretty normal for me. That's why you guys ask about coming at 10. I don't know if I can do 10.
Speaker B
Like Martin, Bill grew up in small town Kansas, keeping busy with statistics and make believe. Martin created his own fantasy leagues while Bill made his own baseball cards. Both dealt with challenging circumstances.
Speaker D
I don't know how dysfunctional Martin's childhood was at Wynham, but it couldn't possibly have been more dysfunctional than mine. But it's been a long time and you know, I'm 75 years old.
Speaker C
Also like Martin, Bill was convinced he was on the right path and thought others might follow.
Speaker D
The central realization was not that there.
Speaker B
Is.
Speaker D
A way that analytical thinking will help resolve these issues. The central realization was that there was an audience that was interested in the subject and that no one was writing to that audience. When I started out, you absolutely would not believe how many people told me that I'm interested in what you're doing, but you'll never make a living doing it because there aren't enough people who are interested in it. So many people told me that that I knew that it could not possibly be true.
Speaker B
Baseball Abstract did have meager beginnings. Only several dozen copies of the book sold in its first year. But eventually the book took off and Bill had a remarkable influence on America's pastime.
Speaker C
Something that Bill never saw coming.
Speaker D
Well, I never envisioned myself as having any impact on the game at all. I was quite astonished that people actually started using my ideas and applying them. I had never. I wasn't trying to influence anyone.
Speaker C
Martin stopped writing Basketball Heaven after year three. Fiscally, the numbers didn't add up. Bill, however, kept going. He told us his third abstract sold only about 400 copies. His career changing Sports Illustrated article didn't come out until after his fifth book. Bill had his eyes on a vast horizon, not the pinched box score of a tiny royalty check. And that is where the career paths of these two men diverge.
Speaker D
Martin was organized and intelligent and a businessman by nature. Right. I'm a writer by nature and it's a different thing Martin was thinking, you know, I'll do this, and it's this much work, and it has to pay off in this time frame or it's not worth doing. Whereas I didn't think in those terms. I was like, this is what I know how to do. I'm going to do it. And that was a critical difference between us.
Speaker C
Would there have been a tipping point for you? Like, if seven abstracts in and you weren't hitting 1,000 subscribers, would you have been like, oh, maybe I'll try something else?
Speaker D
When you first write a book, you have no concept of how much work it is until you do it. I don't know if any of you.
Speaker C
Ever written a book, but I tried and I failed.
Speaker D
It's an immense amount of work. So after the first book and after the second, and after the third, and probably after the fourth, I would say, I'm never doing that again.
Speaker C
Would you have encouraged him to keep going or.
Speaker D
Well, you know, keep going means you have to keep paying the price. You can't tell someone to keep paying the price.
Speaker B
The price Bill speaks of can come in many different forms. We can't be sure which price ultimately pushed Martin to quit writing his books. What we do know is that as a business venture, Basketball Heaven failed. But as a work of analysis, the book earned the respect of Bill James. More importantly, so did Martin Manley.
Speaker D
I lived in north of town, 25 miles north of town that time. And when he started doing Basketball Heaven, he wrote to me and I said, sure, come on out and see me. And we went to a couple baseball games together. Oh, wow.
Speaker B
So do you remember those games? What do you remember about Martin?
Speaker D
Very bright young man, and I expected him to. I don't know to what extent I should talk about it, but after his death, there were things that he said that you would look back on and say, oh, I could see that. I could have seen that coming. Or he was. I thought his book would succeed to an extent that it did not. I thought his book would catch on.
Speaker B
Would it be possible? Could we. Have you read your cover quote that you wrote for Martin? Sure, if. I have it right here, just right in the note section right there.
Speaker D
All right. Basketball Heaven is thorough, fresh, and occasionally brilliant. Manly's systematic analysis of basketball from the time of George Macon to the present is unlike anything I've seen about the sport. His research is massive, his writing lucid, and his approach novel.
Speaker B
And then our producer, Raghu Manavalan interjected to highlight one line in particular we all laughed about.
Speaker C
Occasionally brilliant, sometimes When I'm feeling a little ornery towards mine, I go occasionally.
Speaker B
Brilliant.
Speaker C
That's a joke. But you did it too.
Speaker D
I'm sure. I didn't mean it that way.
Speaker B
They were just being honest. It's an accurate assessment.
Speaker D
Nobody's bragging on everybody, Page.
Speaker C
While it was nice hearing Martin get some love from the master, there was something Bill had said in passing I was curious about. You said when you read it, you thought like, oh, I should have seen something coming, right? What was it that you.
Speaker D
I remember Martin talking about his wife wanted kids and he didn't. He didn't want to. You know, he wanted to concentrate on his career and his business and his. But his wife wanted kids. And that of course led to breakup of the marriage. And I should have seen that coming. You know, I knew about it, he talked about it. I should have seen that coming.
Speaker B
Should have seen that coming. It's a familiar reaction for those of us left behind. Unfortunately, the picture often becomes clearer after the tragedy happened. In the middle of life, it's hard to see a person as the complete and complex being they are. In a way, we're all just looking at one another underwater. We see the murky shape of a life, but never an entire clear image.
Speaker D
My wife and I, we just took a vacation in New Mexico and my wife went whitewater rafting, which I did not and do not. It's like the fourth time she's gone and I ain't doing that. And her kayak or canoe turned over and she's in the water and hits rock. And you know, it's. I think of what happened to Martin as being like, not that he went down a wrong river, but that his kayak turned over and he had set on a rock and it was an end. But it wasn't an inevitable end. It was just something that happened.
Speaker C
The reasons behind it are impossible to know. No matter how hard you study the problem, no matter what math, you apply to the mysteries of fate. Which is why we still find ourselves asking, why did Martin kill himself? Despite him providing an almost 10,000 word answer. Why did one sports analyst succeed while his friend down the road, similar man, different sport, flamed out?
Speaker D
There were people trying to do things sort of like what I was trying to do in the 1970s, who completely failed. And the biggest thing reason they failed was that they made it about themselves and they rather than about the game. The biggest reason that I succeeded where they failed is that I didn't think in those terms. I thought in terms of growing the field and I still do.
Speaker C
It's.
Speaker D
I still do every day. It's just part of.
Speaker C
Is that. Could you say, like, that's thinking about your legacy?
Speaker D
Because I'm old. I guess it is, but when I started doing it, it was thinking about the future.
Speaker B
Do you think about your legacy?
Speaker D
I think about, you know, how I'd be remembered, if I'll be remembered. When I'll be remembered, when.
Speaker C
I don't know. But if. Yes, you will.
Speaker B
I mean, if you're not going to be remembered, the three of us have no chance.
Speaker C
This was a thought Rich and I were growing more comfortable with because we often consider our legacies, too. We began this story hoping to create something we could be proud of, something that would last. But that second part is completely out of our control. I think about my father's legacy. Imagine what he thought about it. And whatever role I play in defining it. Now I know the best thing I can do for my legacy is the best that I can do for my sons.
Speaker B
It's now been more than a decade that Martin Manley has owned real estate. In my brain, Nick and I have considered his story from every angle you can imagine. One thing that's become clear, legacy is an inefficient motivator.
Speaker C
Our legacy lives in a future we'll never see. We can work toward it, but never touch it. No matter how we optimize our time or play the percentages tomorrow, our shots may miss.
Speaker B
Martin overthinking his legacy, sacrificing himself on the altar of efficiency, was perhaps an ironic waste of time.
Speaker D
It's unfortunate that he thought that he had no legacy. My father was a small town schooltener, but I could still go to that small town where we grew up, and I could see trees that he planted and sidewalks that he planted and porches that he built on people's houses. And this comes again from baseball. But in baseball, everybody who plays the game well leaves behind his imprint in the game. Somehow or somewhere. It's like when you see a game that you're seeing a continuation of game that was played in 1928, because all those people played then somehow contributed to reshaping the game. And I'm sorry that Martin didn't see that, but it's true anyway, that we all leave things behind us that are part of the world long after we're gone. I mean, you're part of the river, and occasionally the river kills you, but it moves on, whether you're swimming in it or pissing in it.
Speaker B
You know.
Speaker F
My boyfriend and I At the time, we didn't have anywhere to live, so we were going to live in his parents trailer, hadn't been lived in for years, and needed a lot.
Speaker C
Of work in the last few months of Martin's life. His stepdaughter, Marissa, was going through a rough patch in college, battling anxiety attacks.
Speaker F
So Martin would drive down and there was no air conditioning, no running water, no nothing. But he would work in the.
Speaker C
Oh, God.
Speaker F
It was probably 110 degrees inside that trailer. And he fixed it up for us, fixed the walls and the plumbing and painted it and got it all ready so that we could move it to.
Speaker B
Manhattan to live in Manhattan, Kansas.
Speaker F
He knew that we didn't have a washer and dryer for it, and so he offered us his. And I asked, well, aren't you gonna need it? And he said, no, I'm. I'm moving somewhere and I'm not gonna need it. And I was like, so are they gonna have one there for you? And he like, was weird about the answer. He didn't want to lie and say, like, yeah, I'm. I'm moving to a new place. They've got a washer and dryer for me. He just kept insisting I don't need it. So I said, okay, all right, we'll. We'll take it, I guess. And the night before, the night before he killed himself, he called me. And I almost answered because I just had this feeling, but I didn't answer. And he left a voicemail, which I still have on my phone if you want to hear it. It's him just saying that the washer and dryer are gonna be at my. My mom's and that he loves me. And that was the last I heard from him. Like, I knew it was gonna happen and I should have stopped it.
Speaker B
Hey, Marissa.
Speaker D
Martin, it's about 10 to 1050 on Wednesday. Anyway, your washer and dryer are at your mom.
Speaker B
And also your chair is at your mom, so everything is out of here and at your mom so you can.
Speaker D
Get it whenever, you know, works out for you.
Speaker B
But I just wanted to make sure you knew that. That's all I need. Bye. Oh, by the way, love you. When we first stumbled on Martin's story, he was always described in the national media as twice divorced, no children. And a lot of that was Martin's doing. It helped him rationalize and write about his suicide. But the biggest realization from our visit with Marisa is that the no kids part wasn't exactly true.
Speaker C
It's clear he loved you deeply.
Speaker F
He really did. And that's why it hurt so much. Not only losing someone to suicide is always, always hard, but I couldn't understand it a lot more if he was severely depressed and made a split second decision. The fact that he took so long to plan it and made such a thought out decision to leave me, especially knowing being the only person to know of the issues I was starting to have. He knew how it would affect me and break me, but he did it anyway. It's a lot harder to understand that.
Speaker C
Are you angry?
Speaker F
Yeah, I'm angry. I've gone through a lot of emotions about it over the years, but anger is definitely one of them. I. He made sure to be around for my sister's graduation. I was only a year or two from that myself when it happened. And I wanted him to see me graduate and get married and have kids. And he knew how much I loved him. He knew how close we were. And he chose to abandon me. And that makes me angry.
Speaker C
Near the end of our conversation with Marissa, we asked her about one particular Martin story that had stuck in our minds since the moment we first heard it. Do you remember May 4, 2003? The tornado?
Speaker F
Uh, God, yes, I remember the tornado. I am never gonna forget that. It's.
Speaker C
Can you tell us the story of the tournament?
Speaker B
Martin remembered it too. He wrote about it on his website in a section called KC Tornado.
Speaker A
My brother and sister were in town visiting and we had gone to the Royals game the night before. Rather than taking a second Royals game the following day, we decided to go to Kansas City to watch the dog races. I knew nothing about the sport then and I know nothing about it now. Only that a bunch of dogs run around a track at blinding speeds. After about half the car, the clouds started getting nasty. Shortly after that, they announced a funnel cloud had been seen a couple miles southwest of the Kansas Speedway.
Speaker F
All of a sudden they wanted us to get away from the windows. And then they announced that there's a tornado and it was coming by close and we had to get even further into the building until eventually we end up in a stairwell that's small and cramped. And here we are, me, my sister, and our step uncle. I guess he would be who we barely knew. It was the first time we were meeting him and he's the one who's got us huddled in there and comforting us because Martin decides he has to get pictures of this thing.
Speaker A
When I turned around to go back outside, one of the officials at the Woodlands tried to stop me. You can't go out there. He said. I replied with the only thing that came to me. I'm a professional photographer, and this is my job. Of course. I just had this little 35 millimeter camera and barely even knew how to push the click button.
Speaker F
So he's out there in the middle of the parking lot taking pictures of this F4 tornado. It was almost a 5, and he's right up close to it, taking me pictures. He just. He had no fear.
Speaker B
Do you have fear? Are you thinking you're gonna see him swept up in this moment?
Speaker F
Yes. I thought he was gonna be gone and we were all gonna die. I mean, I. I especially as a child, was just very fearful of anything and everything. So I was terrified, crying my eyes out. And when they told us that Martin would not come inside, and he was refusing to come inside, I. I was bawling. I. I couldn't believe it. I was so mad and scared.
Speaker B
Martin, meanwhile, as usual, thought he had it all under control.
Speaker A
It was immediately apparent to me that it would miss the parking lot to the south and travel by us on the east. So I knew I was safe. I watched it duck in behind the horse racing track and then later, as it danced away to the east.
Speaker F
And still for a long time after, I was mad at him. I was mad at him for risking himself, but for also putting me in that position, to be that afraid of losing him just for some pictures. Oh, it's okay. It was always gonna be all right. I wasn't that close to it. They were just freaking out over nothing. It's fine. I just wanted to get some pictures.
Speaker B
That's a good Martin impression.
Speaker F
Thank you.
Speaker B
I think the reason we love the tornado story is that it captures the most distilled version of Martin.
Speaker C
The desire, almost compulsion to stand out.
Speaker A
Most of the people there thought I was insane. Of course, they're right. Duh. But it is a badge of honor I wear proudly.
Speaker C
Martin would be the guy to march out of the crowd while everyone else sensibly ducked for cover. The guy who ran the numbers and was so confident in one outcome, maybe he didn't fully consider what else he was risking. A man who had to document the moment, to leave evidence of what he had accomplished. A moment that was courageous and needless, charming and frustrating. As we heard time and time again, that was Martin being Martin.
Speaker A
If insane means abnormal, count me in.
Speaker B
In the days after our trip to see Bill and Marissa, Nick and I talked a lot about the idea of legacy. One thing we concluded, Bill James didn't set out to become Bill James. And that's why it happened. He was just a person with a passion, hoping to sell enough copies of his annual abstract to earn the same as a Kansas public school teacher. And if that's all that ever happened, he would say he was a success.
Speaker C
Martin tried to be the Bill James of basketball. And that's part of the reason it didn't work. He could have leaned into his biggest strength, his singular personality. That's what he did. On the website now read more than basketball Heaven ever was.
Speaker A
At some point in reading this site, you would have asked whether I was ultimately satisfied with my life. So I decided this was the best place to address it. I suspect nobody is completely satisfied and I'm no different. No, I wasn't fully satisfied with my life, but I was fully satisfied with my death.
Speaker B
On his website, Martin showed a side of himself that his friends and family hadn't seen. Actually, many sides. The light, the dark, a recipe for fruit slushes. He finally opened up and the world came in. Now his legacy might be shifting again. He's the subject of this six part audio documentary and an enduring obsession for us. He's given us so much hell. Without Martin, we would have never gone to see Bill James. We wouldn't have had the chance to ask one of the wisest people we've ever met. The biggest questions about life, Nick and I, minus the vast success are very similar to where you were about 30 years ago. You know, mid-40s, young kids, just trying to get through every day and just make ends meet. Really. I was wondering if you, if you, what kind of advice you might have for us for just how to make the best of what lies ahead.
Speaker D
The advice would be find what other people are not doing and figure out what other people did not know. I mean, all power of analytics in baseball comes from knowing things that other people do not know. What makes you special is what you know that other people do not know. Because we're small island of knowledge and vast sea of ignorance. And so that's what I would encourage you to do, is figure out something that other people are not doing and do that.
Speaker B
What makes you special is what you know that other people do not know. We think that Martin understood this and on good days that idea pushed him toward greatness. All right, we are about 18 miles, I think southwest of Topeka. During one of our conversations with Martin's sister Barbie, she told us that after Martin died, his first wife Chris had ordered him a headstone. An email from Chris confirmed a location.
Speaker F
It is just off 89th I think it's this Hawk Road. There's a small green sign just before the turnoff to the cemetery.
Speaker C
So we're turning into the cemetery road, and we're going up a slight hill. And literally the hill just goes right into the sky. It's like the end of the world.
Speaker B
It's like an infinity hill.
Speaker C
It's crazy.
Speaker B
We can turn in here. So we're turning onto a gravel.
Speaker F
I'm remembering row eight, but not 100% sure.
Speaker B
So that's one, that's two, that's three, that's four, that's five. This would be six. Oh, Tillman. That's. That's her name. That's the family name. Oh.
Speaker C
Should we get out?
Speaker B
Yeah, so let's. Let's get out and see if we can find the grave. Tripping the metal detector, I mean, it's.
Speaker C
Not the worst idea, but for the.
Speaker B
Record, also, clearly not the best. Maybe Chris got the gold and buried it under his headstone. All right, so these are the Tillmans.
Speaker C
George and Mary, and an infant, Bertha and George.
Speaker B
Okay, so these, I believe, are. These are Chris's parents.
Speaker F
Martin's headstone is black. It has two hearts made of redstone.
Speaker C
And then we saw it.
Speaker B
Oh.
Speaker C
Oh, my gosh.
Speaker B
So what we didn't realize is that Martin's headstone is actually a dual headstone with his first wife's name on the.
Speaker C
Other side, Martin Manley, August 15, 1953 to August 15, 2013. And on the right side, Christine Ardell Tillman, 1951 to Blank Space. That's. I did not expect that. Next to each other, they'll be buried together.
Speaker B
Standing there on the top of the hill, we stared at the numbers that bookend the life of Martin Manley the day he was born and the day he chose to die.
Speaker C
And then bisecting the two sides is the column, and it says Psalm 139, which I don't recall.
Speaker B
I'm going to look that up right now. Psalm 139. You have searched me, Lord, and you know me. You know when I sit and when I rise. You perceive my thoughts from afar. You discern my going out and my lying down. You are familiar with all my ways. Before a word is on my tongue, you, Lord, know it completely.
Speaker C
I wonder if he had that memorized.
Speaker B
Oh, yeah.
Speaker C
Is that before Timothy? I don't know.
Speaker B
It's so interesting because like everything, we kind of joke that a lot of things with Martin seem like there's always something lacking in the end. It's like Even here. When we come to his headstone. Gravestone. There's nothing underneath.
Speaker C
Yeah, this is his gravestone, but he's not here. Martin was cremated. Some of his ashes are in Barbie's basement. He's with Terry, with Marissa. He's scattered outside the Advent Lutheran Church.
Speaker B
But a headstone is still a place where you can gather to remember to make a gesture. On our way here at the Dollar General store in Auburn, Kansas, we bought a 20 ounce bottle of Pepsi. I don't know if he was here, we could pour it out a little bit. Maybe it would seep down into.
Speaker C
If we do that, pour a little bit out for him.
Speaker B
I think so.
Speaker C
Rest in peace, Martin. There you are, sir. Oh, you should know that Mitch Richmond made the hall of Fame.
Speaker B
Martin had wanted to change the game he loved. While he didn't live long enough to see that happen, it happened nonetheless. Basketball has become more like the game he thought it should be, but not because of him. He left and the river kept moving without him.
Speaker C
Twelve years after he was gone, two people he never knew came to exhume his life. We tried to use his legacy to build a peace of ours and learned to accept that no matter what we do, the current will take us one day too.
Speaker A
The only thing I was sorry for is that by dying I may have reminded you of your own mortality. And that seems to be a big problem for everyone else. Sorry.
Speaker B
It's okay, Martin. We can live with that. I'll put this right here next to his headstone.
Speaker C
And I realized I use old basketball cards as bookmarks and I had one in my book. Michael Williams.
Speaker B
Cleveland Cavs or Pacers?
Speaker C
Pacers. From. Actually, from. Yeah, from 91, 92. So good year.
Speaker B
What I remember about Michael Williams, that he had the record, I think, for most consecutive free throws made.
Speaker C
Really?
Speaker B
And is his foul shot percentage on.
Speaker C
The back of the car 87%, 88% in 91.
Speaker B
Yeah, he was a very good file shooter.
Speaker C
Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 podcast produced by ESPN, HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media.
Speaker B
It was reported and hosted by Nick Altshuler and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.
Speaker C
Executive producers from HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark are Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter and Bradley Campbell.
Speaker B
Senior editorial producer of 30 for 30 podcasts is Preeti Varathan. The series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan. The series producer is Gus Navarro.
Speaker C
Consulting producer was Garry Honig.
Speaker B
Story editors were Jamie York and Mack Montanden.
Speaker C
Sound design and mixing by John Delore.
Speaker B
Theme song composed by Alison Layton Brown.
Speaker C
And John Delore show art by Brian Lutz.
Speaker B
Becca Lish is the voice of Chris Tillman.
Speaker C
Fact checking by Matt Giles and David Sabino.
Speaker B
Our sensitivity reader was John Moe for.
Speaker C
30 for 30 and ESPN line producer is Kathryn Sankey.
Speaker B
Associate producer is Isabella Seaman.
Speaker C
Production assistants are Diamante McKelvey and Anthony Salas.
Speaker B
Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.
Speaker C
Senior producers are Marquise, Daisy and Gentry Kirby.
Speaker B
Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Brian Lockhart and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30.
Speaker C
For 30 rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Cal Griffith. This podcast was developed by Taryn Adalny and Cynthia Parabello to listen to more sports series like this 1. Search for 30 for 30 podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 30for30podcasts.com and as always, thanks for listening.
Speaker F
Thank you for listening to Chasing Basketball Heaven. If you loved this series, you might enjoy some of our other seasons from 30 for 30 podcasts, especially the ones that focus on basketball like the Bad Game, the Sterling affairs or the King of Crenshaw. You can find all of our seasons in our show feed anywhere you listen to podcasts. Just search 30 for 30 podcasts. Thank you for listening.