5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 6 (Ep. 1755)

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spk_0 Hello, everybody.

spk_0 Welcome into Fantasy Pros.

spk_0 I'm Ryan Wormley, joined as AM every Monday

spk_0 by Tara Roberts.

spk_0 We are talking five moves to make ahead of week six.

spk_0 We are barreling through the season here at Tara.

spk_0 Quick reminder for everybody that all of our weekly

spk_0 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyproz.com.

spk_0 Slash rankings.

spk_0 We've got a couple of buys.

spk_0 We've got some sales.

spk_0 We've also got a drop later on in the show.

spk_0 Let's start with the buys.

spk_0 Who do you have for us here this week?

spk_0 We're going to start with a buy that surprisingly

spk_0 should not be a buy, but it is at this point.

spk_0 I wanted to talk about it last week,

spk_0 but something in my gut told me to hold off just one week

spk_0 before we talked about Derek Henry here by Derek Henry.

spk_0 The Ravens are obviously in a really terrible position here

spk_0 with the Marjacks and out for multiple weeks,

spk_0 potentially through the way Ravens week seven buy there.

spk_0 They've got to match up against the LA Rams this week.

spk_0 Do I think that Henry will have a vast improvement?

spk_0 And this week, no.

spk_0 The buy for him is for the future,

spk_0 the back half of this season here.

spk_0 Because again, when we look at this Ravens offense

spk_0 and Derek Henry, we know that he gets aggressive usage

spk_0 on the ground.

spk_0 So if the Ravens are struggling falling from behind,

spk_0 ultimately that just limits the upside for Derek Henry

spk_0 and reduces his touches overall.

spk_0 When they're in better situations and better matchups there,

spk_0 he'll get back to being Derek Henry.

spk_0 There's no issue with him being cooked, him being too old,

spk_0 anything at all.

spk_0 We saw in week one that he looked fantastic.

spk_0 The Ravens just have to get into better matchup situations here.

spk_0 And after the Ravens buy, things start to look up here.

spk_0 So let's say we get the Marjacks and back.

spk_0 We've got matchups against Chicago Miami.

spk_0 Excellent matchups here.

spk_0 We got Minnesota that has also been very vulnerable on the ground,

spk_0 even though they've been a tough defense overall.

spk_0 Then the playoff schedule is Cincinnati, New England,

spk_0 Green Bay.

spk_0 So it's just a wonderful thing to buy into.

spk_0 If you're a team with an excellent record

spk_0 and you don't need Derek Henry specifically

spk_0 to put up big numbers this week,

spk_0 if you can hold off to the back half of the season,

spk_0 it can pay off dividends for you.

spk_0 Yeah, it's really interesting because

spk_0 Lamar has had, when he's had injuries in the past,

spk_0 they have sometimes lingered, but they have talked about this

spk_0 as like this is like a couple weeks.

spk_0 And you know, he will be back.

spk_0 And the Ravens as an organization aren't going to say,

spk_0 oh, well, we're just going to tank the season as early as,

spk_0 you know, early October.

spk_0 They're going to get their players back and try and want to compete.

spk_0 It's the way they're wired.

spk_0 And you're right, the schedule.

spk_0 I think I read somewhere that it's the 27th easiest schedule.

spk_0 Or the, the, the, so I guess like the fifth easiest schedule.

spk_0 The 27th was this difficult schedule.

spk_0 It's very easy schedule is my point.

spk_0 Coming down after the buy.

spk_0 It's just been a brutal, you know, first six games for them,

spk_0 you know, with the injuries on top of it.

spk_0 He, you know, Henry like did struggle against Cleveland in week two,

spk_0 when the team was still healthy, Cleveland's also just a really good defense

spk_0 and like made it a real point to stop him.

spk_0 So I don't, you know, I want to put it too much weight on that when these

spk_0 other struggles have been coinciding with the team struggling so much.

spk_0 You know, like you mentioned just in terms of tough schedule and injuries and all that.

spk_0 So I find Henry really fascinating.

spk_0 Because if you believe that Lamar is going to be back and healthy and this,

spk_0 this will be the offense at the very least, maybe not the defense,

spk_0 but the offense that we expected,

spk_0 then now might be a great time to buy because his manager is saying not only

spk_0 has he been bad, but he has the ramps coming up and then a buy.

spk_0 So that's two more weeks of struggles here.

spk_0 You can almost take advantage of that.

spk_0 Where do you have him rest of season amongst running backs?

spk_0 He's still inside the top 10.

spk_0 He's RB eight and our consensus rankings.

spk_0 I don't get the sense that that's how he's being viewed by most fantasy managers.

spk_0 Though that's exactly how I have him.

spk_0 But when I'm looking rest of season, I am taking into account that, hey,

spk_0 like just for right now, it's a bad situation and you can't use him.

spk_0 But when you factor in the level of upside that he has,

spk_0 if you can just get it through and that's why it's more of a specific buy.

spk_0 If your team is struggling right now,

spk_0 this is probably not the best buy for you.

spk_0 It won't matter if you buy him in week eight.

spk_0 He goes off, but you've lost all the games in between and then you're out of playoff

spk_0 contention, right?

spk_0 So rest of season, I still have him top 10, but we got to get there first to the rest of the season.

spk_0 Yeah, definitely, definitely a more appealing buy.

spk_0 If you are currently, you know, four and one or, you know,

spk_0 in first place and doing well and something where you can afford to say,

spk_0 hey, let me set myself up for, you know, the second half of the season already.

spk_0 As opposed to like, if you're one and four, like probably not.

spk_0 Who's your other buy for us this week?

spk_0 We're just going to go the running back track here.

spk_0 A big name running backs and it have poor perception here.

spk_0 Kenneth Walker is a buy for me and that came aggressively after last night's game.

spk_0 Where I sat there through the frustration of watching his usage because the thing about him is a buy is that his

spk_0 production overall is fine, but the perception is what makes him a good buy low candidate here.

spk_0 Because when you look at the numbers, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are intentionally trying to pull Kenneth Walker

spk_0 out of the game.

spk_0 What's they get into the red zone because the numbers don't say that.

spk_0 It just so happens that he's got possibly the worst luck of running back.

spk_0 You know, he's breaking off these big runs.

spk_0 And typically when you break off a big run, you are often pulled out of the game for a little bit of rest here.

spk_0 Another back put in.

spk_0 So if you're breaking off a big run to get the team to the five guard line and then Zach Charbonne gets subbed in.

spk_0 It's a bad look there and he's getting the touchdowns.

spk_0 But when you're looking at the backfield as a whole, Walker is still the lead back.

spk_0 There is no indication that we're having any kind of flip here.

spk_0 He's still getting excellent volume.

spk_0 He still has more snaps than Charbonne.

spk_0 He still has plenty of attempts in the red zone.

spk_0 He has 13 attempts in the red zone.

spk_0 That is within the top 15 of all running backs.

spk_0 The problem is is that Charbonne has 13 attempts in the red zone as well.

spk_0 So it's the split backfield in theory.

spk_0 But Kenneth Walker is still the RB one of that team.

spk_0 And when you look at the numbers overall, outside of week one, where you could argue that the lack of usage there was well below expectations.

spk_0 And the reason for that is that he didn't get that preseason work.

spk_0 So they were doing maybe a slow ramp up since he had been dealing with a foot injury during the off season.

spk_0 But after that week,

spk_0 Walker's worst finish has been RB 26 and he's had two top 12 performances, one of those games being in tandem with Zach Charbonne.

spk_0 The opportunity is there.

spk_0 He's got a safe floor.

spk_0 He's got a high ceiling.

spk_0 He's a weekly top 24 running back.

spk_0 And right now fantasy managers are frustrated with that perception of Charbonne.

spk_0 So he's actually a by-low despite the numbers being good.

spk_0 And when you look at his game log, like when you look at fantasy pros,

spk_0 you know, the teams that are difficult are highlighted in red.

spk_0 The teams that are easy highlighted in green.

spk_0 And if it's neither like kind of a neutral matchup, then they're black.

spk_0 Every single matchup from week six through the end of the season as of right now is green or black.

spk_0 There are no designated very difficult running back matchups,

spk_0 you know, throughout the rest of the year.

spk_0 And there's a handful of ones that are even quite good that are green in there.

spk_0 You know, he is such a fun player like to watch at times.

spk_0 And then so frustrating at other times when they're taking him off the field and everything like that.

spk_0 And even with week one dragging him down in terms of just like the overall yardage production,

spk_0 he's he's 10th in the NFL in rushing yards this season.

spk_0 Again, that's even including his down week one.

spk_0 And he does have three rushing touchdowns, right?

spk_0 It's not like he hasn't gotten in the end zone.

spk_0 It's not just it just feels like it could be more.

spk_0 It just hasn't been.

spk_0 It's so funny.

spk_0 Like I remember all of the, you know, Dynasty rookie draft, you know,

spk_0 discussions about Brissol and Kenneth Walker in the same year.

spk_0 And here we are, you know, years into their careers and they're back to back

spk_0 in the rest of season rankings.

spk_0 There are B 14 and RB 50 and it's like those two are just, you know,

spk_0 attached to the hip for for their careers here.

spk_0 Does RB 14 sound about right to you for Walker?

spk_0 It does.

spk_0 You know, he doesn't because unfortunately the presence of sharp and A he doesn't

spk_0 ultimately on a week to week basis have that top five upside.

spk_0 But having him right outside of that RB one category, it's like literally the perfect spot for him.

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spk_0 All right, Tara, give us a sell here.

spk_0 We're going to sell Devon T Smith.

spk_0 I'm a very consistent person.

spk_0 A few weeks ago, I said sell AJ Brown off his big performance against the Rams.

spk_0 I will say the exact same thing about Devon T Smith here.

spk_0 And it's no insult to him.

spk_0 The talent that he has, it's just that the Eagles don't naturally want to be a pass heavy team.

spk_0 Jalen hurts through the ball 38 times this week.

spk_0 That's just outside of the norm.

spk_0 And I'm not surprised that it happened when you have both your superstar receivers expressing

spk_0 their frustration.

spk_0 It's that, you know, squeaky will gets the oil situation where you can almost guarantee

spk_0 that there's going to be more pass volume.

spk_0 But on a week to week basis, that is not the goal of the Eagles.

spk_0 And when the pass volume comes down, unfortunately, Devon T Smith is going to be reliant on touchdowns

spk_0 when those don't come.

spk_0 You get those nasty single digit fantasy point performances that wreck your week.

spk_0 Unfortunately, so there are game scripts that will push them into more volume.

spk_0 But it is game specific.

spk_0 And I don't want to rely on a receiver whose floor is legitimately below five fantasy points.

spk_0 So this is a fantastic, fantastic opportunity, right?

spk_0 The performance from Devon T Smith was so high.

spk_0 And in any other situation, you're looking at these numbers and you're feeling like he's putting them up on a regular

spk_0 basis here, but here, not so much.

spk_0 So you want to take this opportunity when they've increased the past volume and sell him if you can

spk_0 and move on to what I think is, you know, a more stable situation if you can sell him

spk_0 for somebody else that has more reliable production.

spk_0 What are you hoping like is there a name specifically you would throw out of the type of player you'd be trying to get back for him?

spk_0 Yeah, and you might have to, you know, do a little bit of adjustment.

spk_0 But a guy that I always like to say is just, you know, it's Michael Pittman for me.

spk_0 A guy that doesn't have that same perception more so gets categorized into the same bucket as guys like Devon T Smith

spk_0 and Jameson Williams, despite the fact that he is the wide receiver one of his team and does have consistent volume there.

spk_0 Just again, he's got that perception of, you know, you know, upside, mean limited, Daniel Jones and whatnot.

spk_0 So ultimately you can flip to something like out something else like that.

spk_0 Who's your other cell?

spk_0 My other cell there is Sam LaPorta.

spk_0 Again, you know, it doesn't always have to be a cell high situation.

spk_0 And, you know, as a matter of fact, you know, there are other tight ends that are having these strong performances that I don't think are cell highs.

spk_0 But what I'm looking at LaPorta specifically, it's because he offers the star power in a trade to garner a high end asset at another position.

spk_0 He had a fantastic game, right?

spk_0 92 yards, nearly 100 yards, a touchdown here, but we cannot forget that those boom games happen for him.

spk_0 But when the boom games don't exist, his floor is super low.

spk_0 We had three straight games of seven or less fantasy points.

spk_0 This was his first touchdown of the season.

spk_0 Their natural highs and lows in his game because of the offense that he plays in and because of the weapons that surround.

spk_0 But again, he is a high end flashy tied in.

spk_0 He was a guy that most people were drafting as the tied in for.

spk_0 So coming off this big performance, you can get a little bit more bang for your buck out of him if you're looking to sell him.

spk_0 And then with all of these other fantastic performances that we've had from tied ends coming up as strong options here.

spk_0 As like Darren Waller, Mason Taylor, Theo Johnson, what I'm discovering is I like do Q&A's and questions throughout the week.

spk_0 Is that a lot of people are rostering multiple tight ends.

spk_0 So if you have Sam LaPorta, there's a good chance that you've got another tied end that you picked up because he was just popping on waivers.

spk_0 If that's a guy that you feel comfortable with rest of season, if he's a second look in his offense or has high upside or has high touchdown equity.

spk_0 Maybe he's on a team where you know, wide receiver one was lost to an injury like at the o Johnson.

spk_0 If you want to turn that direction, rely on that.

spk_0 And then Sam LaPorta sell him upgraded in the position.

spk_0 That's something that you can very realistically do.

spk_0 I mentioned kind of the coloring of teams, you know, in the game log and the schedule on fantasy pros.

spk_0 A lot of red for Sam LaPorta in terms of just top match against tight ends.

spk_0 There's one green, you know, a handful of red and then the rest neutral.

spk_0 You know, not the most in tight schedule going forward for him.

spk_0 Where do you have you mentioned the kind of going as like the tight end for in draft season?

spk_0 Where is he now for you?

spk_0 For me, he's more so kind of in like that tight end seven or eight area.

spk_0 And maybe as we progress forward and see how much we can rely on these other tight ends,

spk_0 that would be the key in terms of him moving down a little bit.

spk_0 He's still got high upside here because the thing is is that a lot of these other tight ends

spk_0 that Travis Kelsey is under performing.

spk_0 He would want Sam LaPorta over him.

spk_0 A Brock Bower is dealing with an injury.

spk_0 Sam LaPorta has the higher upside there.

spk_0 So it gets kind of messy when you're in that like four to six range in terms of all the injuries

spk_0 that we're dealing with and underperforming guys.

spk_0 He's got high upside here, but there are guys that could legitimately pass him as the season goes on.

spk_0 You mentioned managers having multiple tight ends in a lot of cases and that second tight end,

spk_0 if they took a backup, there's a chance that backup is looking really good now.

spk_0 Like some of the best tight ends this season, Tyler Warren was going well after Sam LaPorta.

spk_0 Jake Ferguson obviously is getting tons of volume now.

spk_0 Tucker Kraft making the hunter Henry has been a great target in New England.

spk_0 Mason Taylor getting more work now.

spk_0 Like even if you took a chance on Kyle Pitzley, he's kind of paid off.

spk_0 Like there are lots of options is the point.

spk_0 Darren Waller maybe you picked it up.

spk_0 I mean a lot of these guys have elevated.

spk_0 We're deep at the position.

spk_0 And so if you can take the flashier name, like if I were looking at maybe like adult and king

spk_0 cave, I feel like sometimes people have the skepticism around here, the lack of potential pass volume

spk_0 from Josh Allen inconsistencies there.

spk_0 He wouldn't have that same that same high end high upside sell opportunity as a Sam LaPorta,

spk_0 who has finished as an overall tight end one, who has been drafted as an overall tight end one.

spk_0 Kind of gets the little bit of the boost there in terms of that mass appeal for trade targeting.

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spk_0 All right, Tara, wrap us up with a drop.

spk_0 I hate to do the drops because I hate to break hearts.

spk_0 It is Jerry Judy.

spk_0 Unfortunately, there's just and I love Jerry Judy.

spk_0 I want the best for Jerry Judy, but there's way too much working against Jerry Judy at this point.

spk_0 I still think he offers value.

spk_0 So this is not a you have to drop him.

spk_0 Like you've got to move on.

spk_0 There's no other option.

spk_0 If you have the ability to keep him, sure.

spk_0 But as we look across waivers and have all of these injuries that are happening,

spk_0 these running backs that are coming up into prominence.

spk_0 We've got we talked about the popping tight ends as well.

spk_0 There's opportunities to grab people that have higher upside.

spk_0 And if you need that upside and you can't afford to hold on to Jerry Judy,

spk_0 it's okay to let him go at this point.

spk_0 The offense did look better with Dylan Gabriel.

spk_0 That is undisputed there.

spk_0 But what was the true benefit was for the tight ends.

spk_0 And that kind of makes sense in terms of how we were looking at

spk_0 Kevin Savanski's usage of Dylan Gabriel in the preseason.

spk_0 It seemed like there wasn't going to be a lot of aggressive downfield passing.

spk_0 More design plays to put him into comfortable situations.

spk_0 And naturally, those are often going to be to the tight ends here.

spk_0 So I'm not shocked that we didn't see a massive increase in volume to the receiving core.

spk_0 But less about the tilt of the volume to tight ends.

spk_0 And more about the fact that one, even before we got Dylan Gabriel,

spk_0 nearer Judy was looking more kind of luck step with Cedric Tillman.

spk_0 As a 1a, 1b, and it was kind of lowkey looking like it was Cedric Tillman.

spk_0 That was maybe the 1a of that grouping.

spk_0 Now we have Tillman out.

spk_0 Isaiah Bond comes in.

spk_0 And for the past two weeks, Isaiah Bond has also outproduced Jerry Judy.

spk_0 So when you look at Jerry Judy and his skill set,

spk_0 he benefits from quarterbacks that like to air out the ball.

spk_0 Hence why he thrived and went nuclear with James Winston.

spk_0 But we don't have that in that offense right now, unfortunately, for Cleveland.

spk_0 So if there's one person who is naturally going to fall a little bit to the wayside,

spk_0 in terms of fantasy production, unfortunately, it is Jerry Judy.

spk_0 So again, I mean, he's not a must drop.

spk_0 Because Cleveland's schedule does get much softer, extremely soft,

spk_0 as they go through the remainder of the season here.

spk_0 But if he's not the one that's going to be benefiting from the quarterback change and the self-schedule,

spk_0 and you need to move on, I think it's perfectly fine for you to do so.

spk_0 It does get softer later.

spk_0 Maybe not right away at the very least this week.

spk_0 It's pretty tough going from facing a very aggressive Viking defense in London to coming home.

spk_0 And now you go to Pittsburgh, a Steelers team that's coming off there by week.

spk_0 So not a fun turnaround for the Browns offense there.

spk_0 So go ahead and drop Jerry Judy out.

spk_0 I'm not if you're going to like play doubles advocate.

spk_0 I don't have a case to not drop him.

spk_0 So it's a good point.

spk_0 Bye. You will go ahead and wrap things up there for Tara.

spk_0 I'm Ryan Warmley.

spk_0 Thanks everybody for tuning in.

spk_0 We'll see you again next time.

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5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 6 (Ep. 1755)

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